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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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On 1/14/2019 at 4:01 PM, snowman19 said:

It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past

a time or two the models have corrected south when there was deep snow cover, but the key is "deep snow cover" you need at least a foot of snow on the ground for that to even be possible.  and there wont be any snow on the ground here after the first wave because it's going to change to rain

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Euro is now also more or less entirely snow on the first wave though its weak with maybe one inch most places 

yeah its a very minor event regardless.  I could see the second event being like Dec 2002 on Christmas Day when we went from heavy rain to heavy snow- unless the cold air gets here after the precip ends.

 

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On 1/14/2019 at 4:09 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

It can sometimes impact the effect of a wind off the water.  12/5/03 was a case of this.  We definitely turned winds 060-080 that evening as the unforecast overrunning was still going but because we had layed down 6-8 inches of snow already outside of parts of LI the light east wind was having almost no impact at all for areas just west as it was crossing over areas covered in a new snow pack 

I remember it happening in the 1993-94 winter numerous times when the models had to correct to colder solutions.

 

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12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Fv3 a little better at 6z, still not really close for us. Looking more like a possibly solid front end dump to a colder rain for us. Hopefully the UK comes back a bit and the Euro continues south and east.

It's very close for us

Just a little more south and the coast will be back in the game.

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3 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

I tend to put much less weight on 06z and 18z model runs unless within 1-2 days of an event. I have found anomalies in the solutions over the years. Not sure if others agree. But always seems that 0z and 12z are more consistent. 

I agree. 12z & 0z hold more weight to me until the event is a day or 2 out. 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Be careful with this Euro and EPS snowfall maps. Much of what is showing up just NW is mostly ice. Stronger CAD will mean more ice and not snow. Remember, the soundings have just as much warming above 900mb while the surface ticked colder.

4A748D9C-8B39-4263-A88B-DFCD0770D8CD.thumb.png.b38632e4ce3706d8ff249b5bef2b3f04.png

Still need a pretty decent SE shift to get to a mostly snow event down to the coast but def an improvement over yesterday.  Do you think this SE trend will continue or do you think that the active MJO will prevent that?

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7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Still need a pretty decent SE shift to get to a mostly snow event down to the coast but def an improvement over yesterday.  Do you think this SE trend will continue or do you think that the active MJO will prevent that?

The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend.

6E16965C-F410-47C5-BB8E-C812AC593527.thumb.png.fed6cc0c27d242548a7785ef64f2b80b.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend.

6E16965C-F410-47C5-BB8E-C812AC593527.thumb.png.fed6cc0c27d242548a7785ef64f2b80b.png

 

Is there a chance of a Christmas 2002 type event with surprise backside heavy snows when the cold air rushes back in?

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is there a chance of a Christmas 2002 type event with surprise backside heavy snows when the cold air rushes back in?

We don’t have the big bowling ball 500 mb low closing off SE of Long Island like we did with Christmas 2002. We may be able to put in a good word for the FV3 since it has the heavy ice CAD signal north of NYC like the Euro. Perhaps it means it will be better than the old GFS as seeing CAD. But the FV3 changes back to some snow near the end of the event.

CC2505A2-2156-4292-8DB9-2DC58F020144.thumb.png.f5e629b3111dfa96924ffb806776c1cf.png

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend.

6E16965C-F410-47C5-BB8E-C812AC593527.thumb.png.fed6cc0c27d242548a7785ef64f2b80b.png

 

Thanks - would prefer rain to any ice (sleet is fine) so hoping for a good front end thump and/or back end surprise.

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