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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Here are the last 3 runs of the Euro including 18z. Its been trending towards a less amped solution which would argue for a more favorable track for snow lovers in future runs.
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Like the Ukie...

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

00z NAM upper levels is giving me hope at hr 84. Remember the NAM has surprised us past winters, even this far out.

The NAM no longer has the amped issue at 72-84 the last two years.  Some sort of upgrade occurred so it tends now to be near the globals in major storms at that range more than it used to.  NAM even flatter with the Friday event now too.  That has become weaker and weaker for the last 36 hours.  I expected the more south track to verify but I wasn’t exactly anticipating how much guidance is beginning to wash it out 

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3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Just to point out the difference in models. GFS has been hinting on rain with the system on Friday morning while the NAM is insisting in an all snow, colder solution with a general 1-2 inches. 

Yea GFS is really bad with temps. However it has caved to the other models in terms of a much flatter solution for Friday morning 

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