larrye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, cyclone31 said: So many white towels being throw and it's only Tuesday It's just people reacting to what they see as the probabilities resulting from some degree of recent run-to-run consistency on the part of the GFS with some confirmation from the Euro 4 days out + a lack of blocking. We will have to see what the next day or so brings. I don't think people are completely giving up, just expressing what the current likely scenario might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Its comical how guys pack it in from model run to model run. The low is 2 days away from being on land and just a short while ago people were pumped by the Ukie ,,,still lots of time the runs will change again I have little doubt . True but at this rate in 6 or 7 runs the gfs will have the storm in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The weather is like a puzzle- only you can never solve it. It's a never ending battle of trial and error. That's why I love it so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 When you look at the GFS at 18Z and the Euro as the system is tracking across the Oh valley you can sense it is about to try to undercut and slide under the high. I kept thinking here it goes here it goes here it goes it’s going to try and redevelop the center further south but it doesn’t. This can still end up much better here. Long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Certainly not the time to throw in the towel but you would want to see Euro/EPS and GEFS actually making some incremental improvements by Thursday. 100+ mile model errors not as likely as we approach the end of the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above the surface. I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long. Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: When you look at the GFS at 18Z and the Euro as the system is tracking across the Oh valley you can sense it is about to try to undercut and slide under the high. I kept thinking here it goes here it goes here it goes it’s going to try and redevelop the center further south but it doesn’t. This can still end up much better here. Long way to go On the GFS it really appears to want pop a secondary SLP over TN at 102. Can even see wind wind rotation.(at least I want to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The Southern piece won’t be onshore for almost another 48 hours. Since the timing and placement compared to the trough coming down from the plains is so critical, I would really hold off on making any predictions, probabilities or definitive statements. Sticking to what we do know, we have a very moisture laden system coming out of the Ohio valley and high pressure over Northern New England which is a great starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long. Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south. Thursday is gonna be flat. Pretty much everything is headed that way. It’s increasingly likely everyone but south shore of LI will see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …... SO ALONG THE COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN, THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long. Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south. Following past storms, precipitation should start sooner than predicted and if that’s the case and we get a lot of overrunning on Saturday night it could really change the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …... SO ALONG THE COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN, THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL INLAND. They are following the Euro/GFS blend hard and I can’t say I blame them however we still have plenty of time for significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …... SO ALONG THE COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN, THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL INLAND. There is no waffling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Thursday is gonna be flat. Pretty much everything is headed that way. It’s increasingly likely everyone but south shore of LI will see snow In other words... This weekend storm looks colder.No you did not say that... Just extrapolating. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …... SO ALONG THE COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN, THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL INLAND. Do you work for Upton ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: There is no waffling there. no there is not but should the models come out with different solutions tonight or tomorrow ,,there would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Do you work for Upton ? I thought that was bizarre for them to make that declaration so early with how horrendous the medium range modeling has been the last few winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I thought that was bizarre for them to make that declaration so early with how horrendous the medium range modeling has been the last few winters I think sometimes the inexperienced crew comes in for the overnights. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I think sometimes the inexperienced crew comes in for the overnights. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Was that not written this afternoon? That would be the 8-4pm shift. Mostly everyone rotates through everything at the NWS. Seniority doesn’t help much outside of taking vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Was that not written this afternoon? That would be the 8-4pm shift. Mostly everyone rotates through everything at the NWS. Seniority doesn’t help much outside of taking vacation I stand corrected... On both fronts. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18z Euro showed a lot less interaction with the PV and seemed destined for a colder/further south outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 18z Euro showed a lot less interaction with the PV and seemed destined for a colder/further south outcome. Ummm there’s an 18z euro now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The storm isn't even onshore yet. Once it is hopefully we can get a better idea from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ummm there’s an 18z euro now?? Yes, but it only goes out to 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Yes, but it only goes out to 90 hours. Here are the last 3 runs of the Euro including 18z. Its been trending towards a less amped solution which would argue for a more favorable track for snow lovers in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I’ve been in this forum for at least 5 winters and never heard of an 18z euro. Is there a 06z as well and is this a new feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: I’ve been in this forum for at least 5 winters and never heard of an 18z euro. Is there a 06z as well and is this a new feature? It's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: 18z Euro showed a lot less interaction with the PV and seemed destined for a colder/further south outcome. How about 18z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, David-LI said: I’ve been in this forum for at least 5 winters and never heard of an 18z euro. Is there a 06z as well and is this a new feature? Yes and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We seem to be finishing out of the money and nearly out of the snow race by 100-200 miles on this leftover EURO from earlier today. The next two events after this look like close calls too. The big one is going to be a surprise event in my opinion. Model continuity does not exist at this time. Meteorologists sound a lot like economists at these times. One of those meteorologists sounds like a lawyer---with himself as the client. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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