TJW014 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I don't think you have to worry much about snow or ice down in Toms River. Even the snowiest models give coastal NJ all rain. That is one downside of living at the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: I don't think you have to worry much about snow or ice down in Toms River. Even the snowiest models give coastal NJ all rain. I think everyone starts as snow, and coastal nj changes to rain an washes away most of what falls. This is def an inland setup even in the colder scenarios. What could be the big issue for the coast and city is a flash freeze on the back end. Obviously this is extremely speculative right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: without snow cover here that severe cold will not be as severe and will not look or feel that bad.... some outbreaks had no snow cover...the ground was bare in Feb. 2016 ... NYC's Arctic outbreaks... Max..Min...dates 22.....06.....0........0.....0...2/13-14/2016 15......-1.....0........0.....0 35.....13.....0........0.....0 ....................................................................... 17.....09.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/2004 18.....02.....0........0.....0 24.....01.....0........0.....0 .................................................................... 29.....06...0.06...2.5......3"...1/9-11/2004 15.....01...0.09...3.2......5" 27.....07.....0........0.......4" ........................................................................ 42.....32.....T........T........3".....1/25-27/1994 32.....05...0.32...4.5.......7"... 31.....00...0.06...0.1.......7" ......................................................................... 35.....04...0.22...1.0.......5"...1/18-20/1994 10......-2.....0........0........5" 15.....00.....0........0........5" ....................................................................... 23.....04...0.02...0.5.......3"....1/20-22/1985 09......-2.....0........0........3" 31.....09.....0........0........3" .......................................... ............................................................................ 35.....19.....0........0.....6"...1/16-18/1982 19.....00.....0........0.....5" 15.....00.....0........0.....5" .......................................................................... 37.....20...0.10...1.0.....1"...12/24-26/1980 20......-1.....0........0......T 23.....08.....0........0......T ............................................................................. 13.....04.....0........0......3"...2/17-19/1979 17.....00.....0........0......3" 28.....17...0.85" 12.7" 16" ............................................................................. 26.....07...0.06...0.6.....6"...1/16-18/1977 12......-2.....0........0......6" 13.....02.....0........0......6" .......................................................................... 28.....05.....0........0.......1"...1/22-24/1976 15......-1.....T........T........1" 22.....14.....0........0........1" ............................................................................. 13.....02.....0........0.......3"...1/8-10/1968 14......-1...0.03...0.4......3" 17.....03.....T........T........3" ............................................................................ 44.....25.....0........0.....0...2/7-9/1963 25......-2.....0........0.....0 34.....11......T........T.....0 ......................................................................... 24.....03.....0........0.....8"...2/1-3/1961 20......-2.....0........0.....8" 28.....07...0.60...6.0...14" .......................................................................... 23.....06.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/1957 12.....00...0.06...2.0....2" 25.....11...0.16...2.9....4" ........................................................................ 28.....10...0.30...3.6.....4"..2/2-4/1955 17.....00.....0........0......3" 37.....08.....0........0......3" ........................................................................ 24.....04.....0........0.......9"...1/30-2/1/1948 20.....00.....0........0.......9" 26.....09.....0........0.......9" ......................................................................... 30.....05.....0........0.......2"..2/14-16/1943 08......-8.....0........0.......2".... 22.....04.....0........0.......1" .......................................................................... 25.....08.....T........T.......1"...12/19-21/1942 08......-4.....0........0.......1" 21......-1.....0........0.......1" ........................................................................... 24......-3.....T.........T.......5".....1/23-25/1936 16.....04.....0.........0.......5" 20.....08.....0.........0.......5" ........................................................................... 18.....02.....0.........0.....11".....1/27-29/1935 25......-1.....0.........0....10" 34.....16.....T.........T.......8" .......................................................................... 21......-7.....0.........0.......3".....2/8-10/1934 08....-15.....0.........0.......3" 26......-2.....0.........0.......3" .......................................................................... 12......-3.....0.........0.......9".....12/29-31/1933 15......-6.....T.........T.......9" 42.....15.....0.........0.......7" ........................................................................ 36.....03.....0.........0.......0.....1/25-27/1927 25......-1.....0.........0.......0 44.....22...0.02".....T.......0 ......................................................................... 42.....04...0.60"...4.9"...10".....1/27-29/1925 14......-2...0.02"...0.2"...10" 34.....13...0.75"...1.3"...11" ......................................................................... 30.....05...0.04"...0.4".....4".....2/16-18/1922 17......-2.....0.........0......4" 34.....08.....0.........0......4" ........................................................................ 26......-1.....0.........0.......3".....1/31-2/2/1920 24......-2.....T.........T.......3" 40.....22.....0.........0.......2" ........................................................................... 21.....01...0.05"...1.8".....2".....12/17-19/1919 11......-1.....0.........0.......2" 20.....10...0.11"...1.9".....3" ........................................................................... 31.....00.....0.........0........6".......2/4-6/1918 04......-6.....0.........0........6" 38.....01.....0.........0........5" ........................................................................... 08......-6.....0.12"...2.0".....3".....12/29-1/4 1917-18 02.....-13......0.........0.......3" 06......-7.......0.........0.......3" 10......-4.......0.........0.......3" 10.....02.......T.........T.......3" 12.....00.......0.........0.......2" 18......-3.......0.........0.......2" ............................................. 23.....08.....0.........0........0......2/11-13/1917 12.....03.....0.........0........0 24.....00.....0.........0........0 ............................................ 21.....02......T.........T.......T.....2/11-13/1914 10......-3......0........0.......T 26......-1...0.29"....1.6"....2" ............................................... 33.....09......T.........T.......0.....01/12-14/1914 09......-3......0........0.......0 18......-5......0........0.......0 ............................................ 19.....05....0.35"....3.5"....3".....1/12-14/1912 08......-3......0.........0.......3" 23.....02......0.........0.......2" ......................................... 26.....12......0.........0.......T.....2/9-11/1912 13.....00......0.........0.......T 21......-1......0.........0.......T .............................................. 11......-2.......0........0.....6" est...2/9-13/1899 07......-6.......0........0.....6" est 09......-2.......0........0.....6" est 09.....04.....0.23....5.3...10" est 11.....06.....0.47...10.7...20" est .............................................. 44.....06.....0.02....0.5....T...2/16-18/1896 07......-5........0........0.....T 26.....01........0........0.....T ..................................................................... 18.....06........0........0.....0...1/5-7/1896 12......-2........0........0.....0 25.....06........0........0.....0 ............................................... 11.....00........0........0....3" est...2/5-8/1895 10......-4.......0........0....3" est 13.....06.....0.17....2.5..5" est 08.....02.....0.13....2.5..7" est ............................................... 16.....01........0........0.....T est...1/21-23/1888 14.....00........0........0.....T est 24.....07........0........0.....T est ............................................. 12.....00.....0.10....1.0"....4" est...2/4-6/1886 07......-4........0........0......4" est 20.....03.....0.01"....0.2"...4" est ............................................... 16.....07........0........0.....3" est...1/11-13/1886 08.....02........0........0.....2" est 14.....02........0........0.....2" est... ............................................... 16......-1........0........0.....T...12/19-21/1884 07......-3........0........0.....T 36.....07........0........0.....T ................................................... 25.....10........0........0.....6" est...12/22-24/1883 10......-1.....0.01....0.1....6" est 31.....07.....0.80....7.5"..12" est .............................................. 13.....00........0........0.....0-t est 1/23-25/1882 06......-6........0........0.....0 29.....03.....0.32....0.5....T est... .......................................... 21.....03.....0.10....2.0"est 4" est...2/1-3/1881 09......-3........0........0......3" est 18.....01........0........0......3" est ....................................... 32.....10........0.........0......T est...12/28-1/1/1880-81 10.....04.....0.28....4.0".....4" est 04......-6........0.........0......3" est 10.....03........0.........0......3" est 16.....01........0.........0......2" est .......................................... 33.....03.....0.15"....0.0"....2" est...1/2-4/1879 07......-4........0.........0......2" est 26.....06........0.........0......1" est Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is beyond amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gfs is going to cut could already see it at hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS is beyond amped. It sure is, going to be way west. In fact, it may actually show it starting as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yeah GFS is the most likely solution. It’s been so persistent with this solution. Maybe we get an inch but I think this is mostly a rain storm for us. It just doesn’t want to snow here. I think ukmet corrects itself as a cutter tonight. I give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS finds the soft spot in the high pressure zone and attacks it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18z GFS still showing this primarily as a rain event but did improve over 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Agreement on between 2.0 and 3.0" of LE between the Euro and GFS. That's very impressive to say the least, especially for global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS still showing this primarily as a rain event but did improve over 12z. Improve how? Albany is screwed on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Shave off about 1-3" and you have the front end dump totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Don't think it's much of a factor, but the Western ridge is getting beaten down a bit more by a system moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 NAVGEM is now gone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Improve how? Albany is screwed on it. The trough axis is a bit further East. Overall it didn't translate much to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 So snow is out of the question for Northern NJ aka Passaic County area at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Monday is going to be REAL fun. Waking up to temperatures in the teens, even single digits. Then add the wind too, and its going to feel 10 below outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone31 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 So many white towels being throw and it's only Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowman86 said: So snow is out of the question for Northern NJ aka Passaic County area at this time. No. But not looking good for anything significant atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Thanks for the update. We still have some time but its closing in soon. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, cyclone31 said: So many white towels being throw and it's only Tuesday Exactly, it’s sad. If your response is a direct conclusion with only one run of one model to back it up just do not bother posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I know improvement is a relative concept, but I really hesitate to convey positive ideas when the 850 low tracks from Erie to Quebec City. Model agreement is actually very good at this point, so with so much ground to make up, I'd think that you would want to see either wholesale changes in the next few cycles or reliable, meaningful increments from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Juliancolton said: I know improvement is a relative concept, but I really hesitate to convey positive ideas when the 850 low tracks from Erie to Quebec City. Model agreement is actually very good at this point, so with so much ground to make up, I'd think that you want to see either wholesale changes in the next few cycles or reliable, meaningful increments from here on out. Agreed. Going to need a widescale cave to UK/ICON and quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Its comical how guys pack it in from model run to model run. The low is 2 days away from being on land and just a short while ago people were pumped by the Ukie ,,,still lots of time the runs will change again I have little doubt . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Its comical how guys pack it in from model run to model run. The low is 2 days away from being on land and just a short while ago people were pumped by the Ukie ,,,still lots of time the runs will change again I have little doubt . It's great to have the UK on our side and actually trending South. But it's only got the ICON and IBM DT with it. Everything else is a mid 50s torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above. For sure a significant ice storm from the city north west is on the table. Power outages with the cold coming behind will not be fun for anyone. I’m waiting to see where we are after things get sampled on Thursday before making any conclusions. It’s going to come down the the strength of the low and the amount of phasing with the tpv. A weaker less phased and faster solution is what we want. Something in the middle is the danger zone for ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone31 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For sure a significant ice storm from the city north west is on the table. Power outages with the cold coming behind will not be fun for anyone. I’m waiting to see where we are after things get sampled on Thursday before making any conclusions. It’s going to come down the the strength of the low and the amount of phasing with the tpv. A weaker less phased and faster solution is what we want. Something in the middle is the danger zone for ice Exactly, need a couple days for things to pan out and better sampling. At least it's something to monitor, this winter so far hasn't been thrilling but we have a long way to go. Last thing I want is a slopfest, the ponds around here are finally ready for icehockey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above the surface. Exactly. Shallow cold at the surface doesn’t mean snow here at all. The midlevel lows are tracking way west of the area. All colder at the surface will mean is sleet (may even be too warm aloft for that) and freezing rain. The midlevels are going to be absolutely torching in a setup like the Euro/GFS/CMC are showing. There may be very minimal snow here and instead ice may be the real story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It's great to have the UK on our side and actually trending South. But it's only got the ICON and IBM DT with it. Everything else is a mid 50s torch. Eric I totally get it,,,but does anyone really think that with 4 + days to go this is written in stone or that the runs tonight or tomorrow might not look different ? I also am willing to see how Thursdays event effects this if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Eric I totally get it,,,but does anyone really think that with 4 + days to go this is written in stone or that the runs tonight or tomorrow might not look different ? I also am willing to see how Thursdays event effects this if at all. Not written in stone but the carvings in progress are becoming increasingly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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