NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Updated to include rest of 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 6:54 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml this model looks like the nam not sure the name of it... wrf? Expand NMM is the name of the model. Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:05 PM, NJwx85 said: Updated to include rest of 12z guidance. Expand My area in Poughkeepsie right on the 6-12, 12-18 line. Hope you are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:05 PM, NJwx85 said: Updated to include rest of 12z guidance. Expand You have philly getting 3-6? No chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:05 PM, NJwx85 said: Updated to include rest of 12z guidance. Expand And you have me in quakertown near the 3-6 6-12 line. So around 6 or so here. Very very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:27 PM, Stormman96 said: You have philly getting 3-6? No chance Expand I am really unsure about the Philly area because if the snow comes in like what some of the models are showing they could easily get a few inches before any mixing. I might need to adjust things further NW again if the guidance doesn't shift back Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:28 PM, Stormman96 said: And you have me in quakertown near the 3-6 6-12 line. So around 6 or so here. Very very unlikely Expand Then don't look at my maps, I don't know what to tell you. Even the warmer Euro has 4-8" for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:31 PM, NJwx85 said: Then don't look at my maps, I don't know what to tell you. Even the warmer Euro has 4-8" for that area. Expand Euro did not have 4-8 for my area. Maybe 2-3 tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:34 PM, Stormman96 said: Euro did not have 4-8 for my area. Maybe 2-3 tops Expand The guy is the only one here to have the balls to make a snow map for a complex setup and thermal profiles. Why are you busting them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:34 PM, Stormman96 said: Euro did not have 4-8 for my area. Maybe 2-3 tops Expand Aren't you near Allentown, pretty close to where I put the star? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:39 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: The guy is the only one here to have the balls to make a snow map for a complex setup and thermal profiles. Why are you busting them? Expand The guy doesn't even live in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 6:12 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand Map that you actually shares yourself of euro showing 2 to 2.5 here. Im in the 2 shade of blue how is that 4-8 on euro???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:27 PM, Stormman96 said: You have philly getting 3-6? No chance Expand He's making us maps to look at on his own time and dime, with an expertise that he holds which few of us have. Give him a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:27 PM, Stormman96 said: You have philly getting 3-6? No chance Expand disagree on no chance... likely? i would say no. However the meso models have been keying on the LL cold being stronger than modeled so definitely not outside the realm of possibility. The snow may only last a hour or two but it may come down in a fury during that time. I could easily see 2-4" so nitpicking 3-6" doesnt seem outlandish to me. I think his map is actually pretty good, pretty much my thoughts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:39 PM, NJwx85 said: Aren't you near Allentown, pretty close to where I put the star? Expand No im about 15-20 miles south of allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Fixed it for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:29 PM, NJwx85 said: I am really unsure about the Philly area because if the snow comes in like what some of the models are showing they could easily get a few inches before any mixing. I might need to adjust things further NW again if the guidance doesn't shift back Southeast. Expand rightfully so, down here we could easily see all rain or have an event similar to the one in November. Really tough forecast down this way especially when you have some guidance keeping us freezing for a long while and others pretty much flipping us at the start. We are in a similar situation as you guys in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:46 PM, Stormman96 said: Wasn’t meant to bust him. So we aren’t entitled to critique snowfall predictions?? its all good we will just wait to tomorrow night an see if my comments were justified Expand You are grilling the guy who took the time to make a pretty damn good map considering the complexities involved. If you don't like it then listen to your local forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 can we get back on topic and quit worrying about someones prediction map? christ almighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:46 PM, Stormman96 said: Wasn’t meant to bust him. So we aren’t entitled to critique snowfall predictions?? its all good we will just wait to tomorrow night an see if my comments were justified Expand I have changed that map three times already and I will likely change it at least one more time before the storm starts after seeing updated guidance. I try to put my past experiences into it and in a lot of places just NW of 95 it can still go either way depending on the exact track of the surface low and how quickly the snow moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 May not always agree, but I appreciate that you offer reasoning and interpretation for your thoughts. Some others just want to say that they disagree because that’s not what a particular model says. Thanks to everyone who offers more than just “the gfs says this” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18z NAM is further South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam looks like some rather significant changes at h5Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 7:56 PM, NJwx85 said: I have changed that map three times already and I will likely change it at least one more time before the storm starts after seeing updated guidance. I try to put my past experiences into it and in a lot of places just NW of 95 it can still go either way depending on the exact track of the surface low and how quickly the snow moves in. Expand Ok my apologies I shouldnt have called you out on your map. I guess im just extremely frustrated with this winter. Keep thinking we are finally getting hit then it fails. Trust me I hope your right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 8:16 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand That's not good for my backyard. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The NAM stands alone still; maybe moved 10 miles NW with the transition zone from nada to alotta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 8:19 PM, RU848789 said: The NAM stands alone still; maybe moved 10 miles NW with the transition zone from nada to alotta... I do not believe we are done moving south yet. Even the NAM tends to underestimate CAD. Likewise, she's going to take the path of least resistance. To me that's the Cumberland gap, delmarva region, not through NJ and just south of LISent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The 18z NAM has about 7-8 hours of snow followed by about 10 hours of sleet and freezing rain just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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