swataz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 8:55 PM, Stormlover74 said: The nam has the arrival time between 5 and 7pm west to east Expand AH, OK. Thanks, that makes sense. Thank you for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 8:39 PM, Snow88 said: Winter storm watch for NYC 3-6 inches of snow with some ice. Expand Yes they have 3 to 6 inches region wide...which is a bit of a joke given what the models are doing and how much variance will occur based on location. I imagine when it comes to Warning time, city will get a WWA if they are lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 8:57 PM, jfklganyc said: Yes they have 3 to 6 inches region wide...which is a bit of a joke given what the models are doing and how much variance will occur based on location. I imagine when it comes to Warning time, city will get a WWA if they are lucky Expand if guidance continues to warm I agree...however a watch makes sense-they can always convert to an advisory or simply drop the watch if models show mostly rain tomorrow-makes sense to alert the public at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am worried that whomever is just north of that 32 degree line is going to see a prolonged period of freezing rain, which is the absolute worst time of winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 8:57 PM, jfklganyc said: Yes they have 3 to 6 inches region wide...which is a bit of a joke given what the models are doing and how much variance will occur based on location. I imagine when it comes to Warning time, city will get a WWA if they are lucky Expand That's not true, amounts are higher over the interior. For example my watch is calling for 4-8" of snow and up to 0.25" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's funny, and sad how the same people that bashed the NWS for calling for all rain yesterday are now bashing them for forecasting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:09 PM, winterwarlock said: 5-8 for Somerset County...what is Mt Holly drinking? Expand Maybe the western portions and some of the hills; the eastern portions should be in line with Middlesex Co. We generally cannot expect much in these setups. Best we can hope for is more warmth, because the alternative is more ice. All snow or sleet we can deal with, but that doesn't look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:11 PM, NJwx85 said: It's funny, and sad how the same people that bashed the NWS for calling for all rain yesterday are now bashing them for forecasting snow. Expand Point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ride the ICON! Save a horse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:11 PM, NJwx85 said: It's funny, and sad how the same people that bashed the NWS for calling for all rain yesterday are now bashing them for forecasting snow. Expand I want to say you have been one of the most level headed posters on this thread. Unfortunately I can't say the same for others and their incessant drama every time a new model run comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:00 PM, NJwx85 said: That's not true, amounts are higher over the interior. For example my watch is calling for 4-8" of snow and up to 0.25" of ice. Expand Based on what you are seeing, how bad of an icing problem are you anticipating (from freezing rain; I don't care about snow or sleet) for northern Bergen County, around the GSP as opposed to 287? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:18 PM, friedmators said: Ride the ICON! Save a horse! Expand Temps are below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:18 PM, friedmators said: Ride the ICON! Save a horse! Expand Came a bit north like other guidance. Closer to consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:23 PM, jr461 said: Based on what you are seeing, how bad of an icing problem are you anticipating (from freezing rain; I don't care about snow or sleet) for northern Bergen County, around the GSP as opposed to 287? Expand I think it's a really tough call. 3k NAM Soundings in that area show a warm layer from roughly 850mb down to about 925mb. From 2500' down to the surface, temperatures drop like a rock down to the lower 20's. This is valid at 06z Sunday. Prior to that, the warm layer is only around 850mb, so that would probably be more of a snow/sleet mix at that point. It all depends on how long precip persists after 06z with those conditions. If you get 8-12 hours of that you're going to have some serious issues. Eventually the column will start to cool again though so if precip hangs on long enough it could flip back to more of a snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:25 PM, EastonSN+ said: Came a bit north like other guidance. Closer to consensus. Expand It honestly looks good for an easy 3-6 in the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS being colder and more east gives me more confidence that euro and ukmet are near the real solution. Also I honestly think icon is a better model than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:36 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It honestly looks good for an easy 3-6 in the city itself. Expand Anyone can ban me or whatever for being negative it it doesn't do the thread any justice being on board for a snowy outcome which is virtually impossible at this stage. For NYC this is really a non event per current guidance. A little snow to washout rain, (albeit some may freeze initially) to whatever is left, flash freezing but we all know in the 5 boros it will probably be dry or way overly salted (current 2" drifts on either side of the street) non event unless guidance completely fails and we're 28° or less for the entirety of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:55 PM, Ericjcrash said: Anyone can ban me or whatever for being negative it it doesn't do the thread any justice being on board for a snowy outcome which is virtually impossible at this stage. For NYC this is really a non event per current guidance. A little snow to washout rain, (albeit some may freeze initially) to whatever is left, flash freezing but we all know in the 5 boros it will probably be dry or way overly salted (current 2" drifts on either side of the street) non event unless guidance completely fails and we're 28° or less for the entirety of the event. Expand This thread isnt just for nyc. You made your point. Numerous times. Let it go now and allow those who will be seeing more than just a quick shot of snow discuss it without the drama. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah NWS amounts for city and Long Island are too high at the moment. I wouldn’t want to go any higher than 1-2 right now at all. I would probably hedge it as 1-3 so if I did have to up things later the change wouldn’t be as significant to the eyes or mind of the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 10:00 PM, Ericjcrash said: Honestly, are you a troll? Every run you just go against guidance in favor of a snowy solution which would only exist if you were it the northern half of Sullivan county or beyond. Expand Its not just northern half of Sullivan county that sees significant snow. Anybody 50 miles north and west of city should get significant wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 10:04 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Its not just northern half of Sullivan county that sees significant snow. Anybody 50 miles north and west of city should get significant wintry precip. Expand You don't need to go 50 miles. 25 miles, especially NW. Bergen County really changes once you reach Allendale on Rt. 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The cold behind this is really impressive and will be a shock to everyone considering temps haven't been this cold since November. Thinking some wind chill advisories may even be hoisted in NW areas Sunday night. Widespread Sub-Zero wind chills to as low as -10, probably low teens on Monday for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:59 PM, BxEngine said: This thread isnt just for nyc. You made your point. Numerous times. Let it go now and allow those who will be seeing more than just a quick shot of snow discuss it without the drama. Thanks. Expand That's fine I've also pointed out numerous times how the HV may be in line for a catastrophic ice event. There is also a N&W thread for this situation. There's been, and always has been unrealistic wishcast posters who can freely post nonsense so long as its snowy and get by. I would also love a crippling blizzard it that's going to have to wait for a different season or year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 9:59 PM, BxEngine said: This thread isnt just for nyc. You made your point. Numerous times. Let it go now and allow those who will be seeing more than just a quick shot of snow discuss it without the drama. Thanks. Expand Thank you. 100's of posts that are NYC centric. Don't get me wrong, I get it. I know where the population center is, but I'd love to hear thoughts of the more knowledgeable posters on their thoughts for places like northern Morris, far NW Passaic Co, Eastern Sussex Co.. etc, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gfs did shift further east and south. Looks like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Only reason and it’s probably a stupid one that I suspect this could end up moving east is the GFS which tends to overphase anytime there’s northern stream involvement isn’t really doing that more than the Euro/UKMET at all. The southern wave as NJ pointed out I believe earlier has done what we wanted the last 36 hours but the northern stream has gone ape on the UKMET/Euro cancelling that out or even making the setup worse. The GFS not cranking the track more NW than those two models given what they’ve trended towards deviates somewhat from what I would expect. If those other models are getting too happy with that northern stream this could end up surprising us over the next 36 hours by moving further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00Z suite will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 10:09 PM, Ericjcrash said: That's fine I've also pointed out numerous times how the HV may be in line for a catastrophic ice event. There is also a N&W thread for this situation. There's been, and always has been unrealistic wishcast posters who can freely post nonsense so long as its snowy and get by. I would also love a crippling blizzard it that's going to have to wait for a different season or year. Expand But does it really matter? Let them be. I'm just south of the city ( Manhattan ) across from SI and while I don't expect much snow, I'm not ready to say it's a non event; been fooled by ice in the past. The potential has to be respected. I'm rooting for not much ice FWIW, but ya know it's out of our control.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 10:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Only reason and it’s probably a stupid one that I suspect this could end up moving east is the GFS which tends to overphase anytime there’s northern stream involvement isn’t really doing that more than the Euro/UKMET at all. The southern wave as NJ pointed out I believe earlier has done what we wanted the last 36 hours but the northern stream has gone ape on the UKMET/Euro cancelling that out or even making the setup worse. The GFS not cranking the track more NW than those two models given what they’ve trended towards deviates somewhat from what I would expect. If those other models are getting too happy with that northern stream this could end up surprising us over the next 36 hours by moving further southeast Yes sir. I have said this about the ukie for the most part. It has not been too grabby except for last run where it had a bit of interaction and was able to grab a bit because it's outrunning the cold a bit. I know I've put my cards on the table before. I just agree. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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