mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I thought UKIE came out at 1145 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:35 PM, mikem81 said: I thought UKIE came out at 1145 Expand It's not out yet. Not even on my paid site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It comes out on the French sideways site...it does look NW of 00z run but still SE of CMC/GFS by a good bit IMO...tough to tell on those maps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:55 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs is just not a good model. I think icon may be a better model than GFS. It seems like the GfS is good with the strength of the storm but that’s about Expand Agree, it's thermal profiles are often incorrect just like it was with November storm and just like it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 UKIE sadly did come west a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:30 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Ukmet is definitely West. Bad news if you want a colder solution. Don’t tell me GfS wins again Expand It's fine. Well east of the gfs and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:45 PM, mikem81 said: UKIE sadly did come west a good bit. Expand Post it It looks fine on the French site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS has the most snow it has shown to this point on the front end, then dry slot, limited ice/sleet/rain. Probably 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:45 PM, Snow88 said: It's fine. Well east of the gfs and cmc. Expand It looks kinda like the euro. I’m sure it’ll be snow to freezing rain to rain maybe ending as some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:46 PM, Snow88 said: Post it It looks fine on the French site. Expand 995 LP sitting on PHL; NOT good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:46 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It looks kinda like the euro. I’m sure it’ll be snow to freezing rain to rain maybe ending as some flurries. Expand You are right Looks like the Euro Stupid French graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:47 PM, mikem81 said: 995 LP sitting on PHL; NOT good Expand It's similiar to the Euro Not horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:45 PM, Snow88 said: It's fine. Well east of the gfs and cmc. Expand verbatim it's alot of rain for NYC, LI and a good chuck of jersey (after the initial thump of snow/ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:50 PM, Brian5671 said: verbatim it's alot of rain for NYC, LI and a good chuck of jersey (after the initial thump of snow/ice) Expand Do you have the precip map? We will not know how cold it is until we see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:52 PM, pstar3182 said: Lot of members trying to will frozen precip, ignoring guidance. Expand Guidance suggests mostly ice. Who's ignoring guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:52 PM, pstar3182 said: Lot of members trying to will frozen precip, ignoring guidance. Expand What guidance doesn't have some frozen precip ? Low dews and cold temps will promote snow to start with this storm. The question is how long is the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Front end thump hopefully gives the majority of us at least several inches before Uncle Warm takes over. Even up here in Dutchess County, I am expecting more ice than snow which sucks. We are getting to the crucial window for guidance now so all model solutions have now a lot more weight. Don't like the warming trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:52 PM, pstar3182 said: Lot of members trying to will frozen precip, ignoring guidance. Expand Guidance is just that. It’s not a forecast you have to always make your forecast based on experience. I think this is 3-6 inch thump followed by sleet and heavy rain maybe ending as some snow flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 No one should be expecting a blizzard for the coast but some accumulating snow isn't out of the question We have tonight and tomorrow to see how the surface temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm now expecting more snow tonight imby than Saturday night Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:54 PM, Snow88 said: What guidance doesn't have some frozen precip ? Low dews and cold temps will promote snow to start with this storm. The question is how long is the transition. Expand There's almost no cold ahead of this thing. If we had arctic cold in place then it'd be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:55 PM, Stormlover74 said: I'm now expecting more snow tonight imby than Saturday night Sunday Expand Youll be pleasantly surprised in that case. You are good for 4-8"+ on Sat/Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Still 12-18 inches expected at my second home in Liberty NY where I'll ride this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:55 PM, SnoSki14 said: There's almost no cold ahead of this thing. If we had arctic cold in place then it'd be a different story. Expand Are you serious ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:54 PM, White Gorilla said: Front end thump hopefully gives the majority of us at least several inches before Uncle Warm takes over. Even up here in Dutchess County, I am expecting more ice than snow which sucks. We are getting to the crucial window for guidance now so all model solutions have now a lot more weight. Don't like the warming trends. Expand I think we are going to get at least 6 inches before and changeover to sleet and FR. Just a tick further south and we could get a foot. Nothing set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:56 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Youll be pleasantly surprised in that case. You are good for 4-8"+ on Sat/Sun Expand Lol no way, maybe 2" some sleet and then rain. I think it's unavoidable at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:55 PM, Snow88 said: No one should be expecting a blizzard for the coast but some accumulating snow isn't out of the question We have tonight and tomorrow to see how the surface temps are. Expand Yea I think at this point it's less a question of overall storm development and more a question of surface temps/front end dump. In the November storm the models way overestimated the surface temps which led to much more accumulation at the coast than expected. This setup doesn't look as favorable with a west to east system but I wouldn't be surprised if places especially away from the immediate coast get thumped more than expected. Think the icing threat becoming less and less likely for the coast and more an I287 on northwest threat which is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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