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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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  On 1/17/2019 at 6:24 AM, Rjay said:
It's actually above freezing almost the whole time lol
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Interesting. Still... It keeps right about 35 even as the LP goes right under LI, in some ways muting a true torch (granted it would be rain verbatim).

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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  On 1/17/2019 at 6:27 AM, Rjay said:

I did not expect we'd be above freezing almost the while time on that rum 

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SLP track looked identical to the UK, so I thought the Euro would at least have somewhat similar snowfall for the 95 corridor, but I assume no way with those surface temps.  

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  On 1/17/2019 at 6:09 AM, paweather said:

and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. 

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Good it should head east, there's a strong high to the north.  I dont want an 80s type pattern where all the storms either went to DC or headed into upstate NY

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  On 1/17/2019 at 6:18 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Well the snow totals are high because the models are assuming anything frozen is a 10:1 ratio. Since 70% looks like sleet or freezing rain accumulations would be nowhere near what the snowmaps show

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it does almost sound like the VD 2007 wintry storm or St Paddy's Day 2007, either or both were like that.

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  On 1/17/2019 at 5:42 AM, Ericjcrash said:

No matter how many times we tell them, if they have the snow goggles on the primary could track to Buffalo and they would say all snow.

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thats why they should remember the two storms from 2007 that I referenced.  It can stay all frozen like those two 2007 storms did, but it would be snow to sleet to freezing rain.

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  On 1/17/2019 at 5:52 AM, Ericjcrash said:

I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now.

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There wont be a final solution until the storm actually makes it onshore, sampling in the Pacific is poor, so wait for another 24 hours or so before things get nailed down.

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  On 1/17/2019 at 9:11 AM, Animal said:

Mt Holly nws morning afd going easily 6-10 inches of snow southern Poconos into nnj. (Nothing unusal)Mentions mainly snow likely but will monitor future computer model runs to determine the mix impacts.

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Yes, I want to see the totals for Mt Pocono over to Lake Harmony and Albrightsville (around 2,000 ft where my summer home is)

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  On 1/17/2019 at 11:28 AM, allgame830 said:

Ugh I do not know why I listen to the local news.... Channel 7 had a high of 47 in NYC which is just flat out wrong and maybe 1-2 inches for weekend storm. I know it’s preliminary but they seem to mislead the public more and more these days. 

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They must be going with the Gfs.

Navgem has the low sliding off the southern mid atlantic coast .

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  On 1/17/2019 at 11:40 AM, bluewave said:

Slightly warmer 0z run of Euro was enough to push the heavy icing just NW of I-95. 850 mb freeze line gets pushed up a little further to the north this time with the very strong SW LLJ WAA aloft.

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Euro looked colder on stormvista along with the eps.

I still think this goes further southeast but we are running out of time. 

 

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  On 1/17/2019 at 11:50 AM, Snow88 said:

Euro looked colder on stormvista along with the eps.

I still think this goes further southeast but we are running out of time. 

 

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The models never really waivered on the strength of the WAA with the LLJ. At least we get the front end thump ahead of the P-Type issues. Hopefully, we can get a measurement in the park before the mixing occurs.

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