White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Still a long way to go as far as model confidence as far as I am concerned. Better data sampling tomorrow and Friday should bring all this into better focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This looks very icy for NYC at the end of the NAM's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That NAM run is a worst case scenario for the city NW up to I-84 with dangerous icing. Let’s hope it is just too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:49 AM, Stormlover74 said: Stays all frozen for everyone just west of the city even with the low over nj Expand Qpf is not really that impressive on the 0z nam. We will survive. 6 inches of snow or so over a sandwich of sleet & freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wonder if this pans out. significant icing situation for a huge chunk of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:53 AM, allgame830 said: That NAM run is a worst case scenario for the city NW up to I-84 with dangerous icing. Let’s hope it is just too amped. Expand Worst case scenario? Come on with this talk. Just be careful etc. find a safe spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:55 AM, Animal said: Worst case scenario? Come on with this talk. Just be careful etc. find a safe spot. Expand On 1/17/2019 at 2:54 AM, jfklganyc said: Wonder if this pans out. significant icing situation for a huge chunk of the area Expand Ground is for sure cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:55 AM, Animal said: Worst case scenario? Come on with this talk. Just be careful etc. find a safe spot. Expand Even quarter of an inch of ice can do damage... remember that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:53 AM, Animal said: Qpf is not really that impressive on the 0z nam. We will survive. 6 inches of snow or so over a sandwich of sleet & freezing rain. Expand 1-1.5" still pretty high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Since it seems like a big snow event is becoming a remote possibility for the coast, I'm hoping for a north trend and plain rain. No interest in an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Time for the ICON run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:59 AM, kat5hurricane said: Since it seems like a big snow event is becoming a remote possibility for the coast, I'm hoping for a north trend and plain rain. No interest in an ice storm. Expand It's pretty safe to say it won't be a big or even moderate snow event for the coast or anywhere really close. Need a ridiculous shift SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:53 AM, Animal said: Qpf is not really that impressive on the 0z nam. We will survive. 6 inches of snow or so over a sandwich of sleet & freezing rain. Expand Just west of Manhattan maybe. Just west of SI is all rain. If it rains in my experience it's going to rain up into Essex and Hudson as well. You get over to the Watchungs and it will probably sleet longer. Just really not a storm to get excited about; more one we want to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:02 AM, Ericjcrash said: It's pretty safe to say it won't be a big or even moderate snow event for the coast or anywhere really close. Need a ridiculous shift SE. Expand Agree this is not a snowstorm for the coast or near the coast, maybe a front end thump in the best case scenario but the icing threat is starting to look very real especially for anyone away the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:59 AM, kat5hurricane said: Since it seems like a big snow event is becoming a remote possibility for the coast, I'm hoping for a north trend and plain rain. No interest in an ice storm. Expand It's becoming a remote possibility for most of NJ from what I see here. I got a feeling we are in for some kind of ice, and like you I am hoping it isn't long duration and it flips to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not much sleet with this storm. It’s going to be snow to freezing rain to rain at the coast and snow to freezing rain inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also the NAM is well out of range. I’d start giving it more weight this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:04 AM, NJwx85 said: Not much sleet with this storm. It’s going to be snow to freezing rain to rain at the coast and snow to freezing rain inland. Expand Yeah not a nice scenario. Hope it isn't too bad up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I wonder if this storm is going to be like the November storm where the area was supposed to change over but we got a few inches before it changed to sleet. There will be cold air in place before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:08 AM, Snow88 said: I wonder if this storm is going to be like the November storm where the area was supposed to change over but we got a few inches before it changed to sleet. There will be cold air in place before the storm. Expand It changed to heavy rain but the front end dump was way undermodeled. These scenarios can go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:09 AM, HVSnowLover said: It changed to heavy rain but the front end dump was way undermodeled. These scenarios can go either way Expand That system approached from almost due south as far as the WAA push. That is usually a classic scenario where we do well in the overrunning snow. This one is too WSW-ENE. I wouldn’t expect it to be anywhere near as good. Most of the overrunning will tend to initially go to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I can't take the Nam seriously outside 48 hrs, let's wait for the better models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ICON more amped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:15 AM, SnoSki14 said: I can't take the Nam seriously outside 48 hrs, let's wait for the better models. Expand The bad news at the moment is the NAM has a tendency towards south biases with SWFE type storms beyond 48-60. If this is its south bias...then bye Felicia lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:18 AM, Ericjcrash said: ICON more amped too. Expand It appears faster more so than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ICON significantly warmer. 3-5° at surface @75hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Going to be an absurd amount of QPF. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:19 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The bad news at the moment is the NAM has a tendency towards south biases with SWFE type storms beyond 48-60. If this is its south bias...then bye Felicia lol. Expand Well I personally think a lot of people will be disappointed including those in SNE. It'll probably just be another heavy rainstorm for us. The one after will def be all rain too and then maybe the pattern will get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The weenie security blanket deep thunder is now way way way more amped than earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: ICON significantly warmer. 3-5° at surface @75hr Expand All ice for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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