MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z icon has over 12 inches for NYC area ( mostly ice and snow ) and over 20 inches for inland areas. It came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I didnt realize what a dramatic shift last night EURO and GFS made as well. As of 12z yesterday the highs in the NYC area were going to reach the 50's. Now they top off at around 35. The 850's are still ugly, but another 50-100 mile shift SE would be huge today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 1:40 PM, Snow88 said: Sref is at long range but it's really cold with the low further south. Expand SREF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:19 PM, Snow88 said: 12z icon has over 12 inches for NYC area ( mostly ice and snow ) and over 20 inches for inland areas. It came south Expand Could you post the map, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:19 PM, Snow88 said: 12z icon has over 12 inches for NYC area ( mostly ice and snow ) and over 20 inches for inland areas. It came south Expand Really? Doesnt look like at hr 90 looks like its about to flip to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:25 PM, mikem81 said: Really? Doesnt look like at hr 90 looks like its about to flip to rain Expand Surface is very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:26 PM, Snow88 said: Surface is very cold Expand No way that depiction leads to 12 inches in NYC. Maybe some freezing rain. In any event, I dont waste time discussing the ICON. Its only discussed because its available for free on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:19 PM, Snow88 said: 12z icon has over 12 inches for NYC area ( mostly ice and snow ) and over 20 inches for inland areas. It came south Expand No it doesn't. Has a lot of 31-33 degree rain after a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 HOT OFF THE PRESS https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.shtml QUAD FRONTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 YIKES. That's like catastrophic icing if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:35 PM, NJwx85 said: YIKES. That's like catastrophic icing if correct. Expand Boy, that's a really sharp cutoff at Raritan Bay. Freezing to 50 in only a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 And we're back to a rainstorm. Probably a fluke run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GFS pre changeover. Note this doesn't include anything from Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:57 PM, SnoSki14 said: And we're back to a rainstorm. Probably a fluke run last night. Expand Temperatures are in the 40's at the surface as opposed to 50's on yesterdays 12z run. I would certainly toss the GFS thermal profiles anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Should this turn out to be all rain, how many inches would it be in the NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:00 PM, steve5728 said: Should this turn out to be all rain, how many inches would it be in the NYC area? Expand Most models have 2-3" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:03 PM, Franklin0529 said: Another rainstorm..... next Expand You basically live in the middle of the bay, not exactly an ideal location for border line air masses. For those of us that live North and West of the city this still has the potential to be a major snowstorm with significant icing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If you have nothing constructive to add ^^^^^ best not to post anything at all. The Southern shortwave is still in the Pacific ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 3:19 PM, Snow88 said: 12z icon has over 12 inches for NYC area ( mostly ice and snow ) and over 20 inches for inland areas. It came south Expand why don't you start posting maps - not 12 inches near the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ugh some of you.... the GFS thermals are garbage and I have been saying that for days now. Also the low placement is too far NW. On the other hand the GGEM seems much better then the GFS which is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The Canadian now redevelops. Primary gets to Southern Ohio before a secondary pops over VA and rides the coast. Ignore the thermal profiles. They are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I don't understand the outrage over the 12z GFS. Same end result as 6z. Rain with a little front end that gets washed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:20 PM, NJwx85 said: The Canadian now redevelops. Primary gets to Southern Ohio before a secondary pops over VA and rides the coast. Ignore the thermal profiles. They are garbage. Expand so if they are garbage - what actually happens in your opinion ? Also can you slow that down ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:21 PM, NEG NAO said: so if they are garbage - what actually ppens in your opinion ? Expand So a lot of what the GGEM is showing as plain rain over interior NJ and the Hudson Valley is actually freezing rain. It's a solid front end dump of 3-6, 4-8" before the warming takes over aloft. But the surface cold hangs strong. It's a thump to freezing rain, possibly changing back to snow as the system pulls away late Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:21 PM, NEG NAO said: so if they are garbage - what actually happens in your opinion ? Expand He probably thinks the surface will trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:20 PM, NJwx85 said: The Canadian now redevelops. Primary gets to Southern Ohio before a secondary pops over VA and rides the coast. Ignore the thermal profiles. They are garbage. Expand If we could get the transfer earlier we'd be in business. That has immense potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:21 PM, Ericjcrash said: I don't understand the outrage over the 12z GFS. Same end result as 6z. Rain with a little front end that gets washed. Expand I don’t have outrage over it just know it’s plain wrong with its thermal profiles and the low placement will NOT be that far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:23 PM, NJwx85 said: So a lot of what the GGEM is showing as plain rain over interior NJ and the Hudson Valley is actually freezing rain. It's a solid front end dump of 3-6, 4-8" before the warming takes over aloft. But the surface cold hangs strong. It's a thump to freezing rain, possibly changing back to snow as the system pulls away late Sunday. Expand I would say that analyses stays on the table - as a possible outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 One key thing to keep in mind if it looks like a heavy freezing rain scenario. The one partial saving grace in this scenario would be if we get a front end thump of several inches of snow everywhere before a change to ZR, such that freezing rain falling into a snowpack would simply be absorbed and wouldn’t coat all sub-32F surfaces with ice. In this scenario, it may sound odd, but it would probably be better to now shovel/plow, if possible (which is likely a non-starter for roads, lol, but that'll absolutely be what I do with my sidewalk and driveway), so that any ZR falls into the snowpack. Having the rain falling into the snowpack will lead to a slushy mess that probably freezes slowly (remember freezing adds a little heat to the surroundings) and not as a pure ice glaze. So root for snow before freezing rain. Trees and powerlines could still be vulnerable, especially as the snow may not stick well to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:24 PM, Ericjcrash said: If we could get the transfer earlier we'd be in business. That has immense potential. Expand Maybe the 84 hr NAM is onto something. Would be a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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