SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro is now also more or less entirely snow on the first wave though its weak with maybe one inch most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 7:23 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Euro is now also more or less entirely snow on the first wave though its weak with maybe one inch most places Expand It's further south with the low. Helps the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Eps also came further south along with the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 9:01 PM, snowman19 said: It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past Expand a time or two the models have corrected south when there was deep snow cover, but the key is "deep snow cover" you need at least a foot of snow on the ground for that to even be possible. and there wont be any snow on the ground here after the first wave because it's going to change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 7:23 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Euro is now also more or less entirely snow on the first wave though its weak with maybe one inch most places Expand yeah its a very minor event regardless. I could see the second event being like Dec 2002 on Christmas Day when we went from heavy rain to heavy snow- unless the cold air gets here after the precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 9:09 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It can sometimes impact the effect of a wind off the water. 12/5/03 was a case of this. We definitely turned winds 060-080 that evening as the unforecast overrunning was still going but because we had layed down 6-8 inches of snow already outside of parts of LI the light east wind was having almost no impact at all for areas just west as it was crossing over areas covered in a new snow pack Expand I remember it happening in the 1993-94 winter numerous times when the models had to correct to colder solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 06Z NAM at 84 very flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:21 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The 06Z NAM at 84 very flat Expand Yeah, but 6z GFS has gone NW. Still better than 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:53 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but 6z GFS has gone NW. Still better than 18z yesterday. Expand it seems like the trends are great for SNE let's see what they do for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Fv3 a little better at 6z, still not really close for us. Looking more like a possibly solid front end dump to a colder rain for us. Hopefully the UK comes back a bit and the Euro continues south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:53 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but 6z GFS has gone NW. Still better than 18z yesterday. Expand Considering the EURO is more on board now and is closer to the UK then GFS, I would say the GFS is not right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 11:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: Fv3 a little better at 6z, still not really close for us. Looking more like a possibly solid front end dump to a colder rain for us. Hopefully the UK comes back a bit and the Euro continues south and east. Expand It's very close for us Just a little more south and the coast will be back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:53 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but 6z GFS has gone NW. Still better than 18z yesterday. Expand Eric, NE forum saying it did not go NW, just a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 11:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: Fv3 a little better at 6z, still not really close for us. Looking more like a possibly solid front end dump to a colder rain for us. Hopefully the UK comes back a bit and the Euro continues south and east. Expand what about backend heavy snows a la Christmas 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I tend to put much less weight on 06z and 18z model runs unless within 1-2 days of an event. I have found anomalies in the solutions over the years. Not sure if others agree. But always seems that 0z and 12z are more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:06 PM, Edubbs83 said: I tend to put much less weight on 06z and 18z model runs unless within 1-2 days of an event. I have found anomalies in the solutions over the years. Not sure if others agree. But always seems that 0z and 12z are more consistent. Expand I agree. 12z & 0z hold more weight to me until the event is a day or 2 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06z EURO very consistent with 0z maybe even slightly SE... great sign FYI it really only shows the very beginning of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:22 PM, allgame830 said: 06z EURO very consistent with 0z maybe even slightly SE... great sign FYI it really only shows the very beginning of the storm. Expand Can you post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Be careful with this Euro and EPS snowfall maps. Much of what is showing up just NW is mostly ice. Stronger CAD will mean more ice and not snow. Remember, the soundings have just as much warming above 900mb while the surface ticked colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:29 PM, bluewave said: Be careful with this Euro and EPS snowfall maps. Much of what is showing up just NW is mostly ice. Stronger CAD will mean more ice and not snow. Remember, the soundings have just as much warming above 900mb while the surface ticked colder. Expand Still need a pretty decent SE shift to get to a mostly snow event down to the coast but def an improvement over yesterday. Do you think this SE trend will continue or do you think that the active MJO will prevent that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:38 PM, ILoveWinter said: Still need a pretty decent SE shift to get to a mostly snow event down to the coast but def an improvement over yesterday. Do you think this SE trend will continue or do you think that the active MJO will prevent that? Expand Need a massive shift still. Possible but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:38 PM, ILoveWinter said: Still need a pretty decent SE shift to get to a mostly snow event down to the coast but def an improvement over yesterday. Do you think this SE trend will continue or do you think that the active MJO will prevent that? Expand The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 4:40 AM, Stormlover74 said: @Rjay Expand I passed out. Not nearly as good as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:46 PM, bluewave said: The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend. Expand Is there a chance of a Christmas 2002 type event with surprise backside heavy snows when the cold air rushes back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:46 PM, Rjay said: I passed out. Not nearly as good as 12z Expand It’s still shows areas just north and west of NYC staying below freezing at the surface for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:46 PM, Rjay said: I passed out. Not nearly as good as 12z Expand Very disheartening. Couple inches washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:52 PM, LibertyBell said: Is there a chance of a Christmas 2002 type event with surprise backside heavy snows when the cold air rushes back in? Expand We don’t have the big bowling ball 500 mb low closing off SE of Long Island like we did with Christmas 2002. We may be able to put in a good word for the FV3 since it has the heavy ice CAD signal north of NYC like the Euro. Perhaps it means it will be better than the old GFS as seeing CAD. But the FV3 changes back to some snow near the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Funny thing now is that the EURO gives the area more snow then the UK now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 1:08 PM, allgame830 said: Funny thing now is that the EURO gives the area more snow then the UK now. Expand Unfortunately that 6-9 inches over the metro it predicts will probably translate to ice rather than snow per Bluewave's posts because the middle layers are torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:46 PM, bluewave said: The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend. Expand Thanks - would prefer rain to any ice (sleet is fine) so hoping for a good front end thump and/or back end surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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