Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Post the facts or risk what just happened to Redbankidiot. Also chill out with the trolling and posting in definites at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Tries to get interesting on the backside, normally back end ice/snow doesn't happen but in this setup with the strength of the high it's possible it could get wintry on the backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:12 PM, Ericjcrash said: Horrible. Expand If it's 30-32 instead of 33-34 for the NW burbs it could get crazy in terms of icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lol. Redevelopment at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 raw 2m gfs temps are not worth looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Very odd track - gets to very close to the benchmark at 150, but it's via south central VA at 144 - rarely see that...looks like lots of sleet/ZR on the backside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is going to be a tricky forecast. Especially with that second low forming on the front. Even if it's initially warm/rainy, we could still see some serious icing then some snow on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wild solution. Deform snows with temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Snow + sleet map, then precip map ~2" LE for most) - lots of non snow/sleet - is it ZR or plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:20 PM, Rjay said: This is going to be a tricky forecast. Especially with that second low forming on the front. Even if it's initially warm/rainy, we could see some serious icing then some snow on the back side. Expand GFS taken literally would be a wild storm. Heavy rain, sleet, freezing rain, then high ratio snow with a flash freeze thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The second low is an interesting twist, and likely a positive one for us. Interested to see how this continues to evolve over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:23 PM, Gravity Wave said: The second low is an interesting twist, and likely a positive one for us. Interested to see how this continues to evolve over the next several days. Expand Need that re-developments 6-12 hours earlier to keep the screaming SW wind at the 850 and 2m level down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs has multiple waves riding the front like the gefs. Snow to rain to ice to snow for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:16 PM, forkyfork said: raw 2m gfs temps are not worth looking at Expand thank you, seriously. that can not be said enough. even it has a nice signal for arctic air surging down the hudson valley if you look at its 10m winds sunday. that would meet little resistance on its way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 has lost the cutter idea, looks a lot like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:35 PM, Gravity Wave said: FV3 has lost the cutter idea, looks a lot like the GFS. Expand That map leaves a lot to be desired lol. Tidbits is so much easier to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:30 PM, Snow88 said: Gfs has multiple waves riding the front like the gefs. Snow to rain to ice to snow for the NYC area. Expand I would never want to bank on the back end snows... Would rather bank on the front end thump to dry slot concept... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Are there any analogues for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:38 PM, Ericjcrash said: That map leaves a lot to be desired lol. Tidbits is so much easier to see. Expand Yeah I know, tidbits is so slow with the FV3 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:39 PM, mikem81 said: I would never want to bank on the back end snows... Would rather bank on the front end thump to dry slot concept... Expand I usually agree but this really isn't your typical back end changeover snow that never comes deal. It's a different wave that blows up with cold air more then plentiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:41 PM, Gravity Wave said: Yeah I know, tidbits is so slow with the FV3 though. Expand Painfully slow but they do have a lot of different panels that are very user friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 the back end snow on the 18z run was simply a 500mb jet max passing by, putting us in a brief sweet spot for lift. the soundings aren't that impressive, but this does seem to be the kind of pattern where multiple vorts come into play. it's as likely as any other operational run out there for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:39 PM, mikem81 said: I would never want to bank on the back end snows... Would rather bank on the front end thump to dry slot concept... Expand It's not back end snow Its a different wave along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gefs has multiple lows Gefs is snow to rain /mix back to snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:46 PM, purduewx80 said: the back end snow on the 18z run was simply a 500mb jet max passing by, putting us in a brief sweet spot for lift. the soundings aren't that impressive, but this does seem to be the kind of pattern where multiple vorts come into play. it's as likely as any other operational run out there for the time being. Expand some gfes members split the system into two parts with the second being all snow. that's our best hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 11:17 PM, forkyfork said: some gfes members split the system into two parts with the second being all snow. that's our best hope Expand Not bad. Juiced too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 11:17 PM, forkyfork said: some gfes members split the system into two parts with the second being all snow. that's our best hope Expand same goes for the 12z eps, but the majority drop more of the polar vortex into the southern vort complex/low than the gfs or gefs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 models underestimate dense low level cold so the ice threat is significant imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:02 AM, forkyfork said: models underestimate dense low level cold so the ice threat is significant imoNot that it matters.. But I agreeSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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