Eduardo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 1:51 PM, Brian5671 said: running out of time in a few weeks...it's been "a few weeks away" for about 6 weeks now. January will likely end up above normal temp wise... Expand (1) Yes......time moves forwards..... :-P We are just now rounding the halfway point of meteorological winter and March’s have been kind to us in recent years as well. While we might need some luck for this weekends storm, I think the coast is in a better position to reap some dividends afterwards. (2) AN for Jan is hardly assured given the cold that’s progged to settle in for the rest of the month. Might be tough to erase the + departures from the early-month PAC puke, but it might be doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 2:42 PM, bluewave said: Large cluster of EPS members track the low directly over or just west of NYC like the OP Euro and UKMET. Expand if it went over NYC we could luck out with a front end thump and then a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 2:42 PM, bluewave said: Large cluster of EPS members track the low directly over or just west of NYC like the OP Euro and UKMET. Expand that's not a huge concern this far out especially since every model run is jumping around - in 2 or 3 days it will be a BIG concern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:08 PM, bluewave said: I would have to disagree since the 0z EPS took a big step in the wrong direction. You are just making that up. Expand how many storms have we gone through in the last several years where a particular model run took a step in the wrong direction 5 - 6 days out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:08 PM, bluewave said: I would have to disagree since the 0z EPS took a big step in the wrong direction. You are just making that up. Expand On 1/14/2019 at 3:08 PM, purduewx80 said: they're being entirely realistic. look at it as a voice of reason in a thread overwhelmed by non-science, weenieism and uninformed optimism. Expand Okay guys sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'd be more concerned if models show a cutter on Thursday not on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 JB notes a center heading to SW PA and then a new storm forming off the VA Capes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:23 PM, Brian5671 said: I just haven't see that modeled anywhere of yet....we'd need some sort of block to allow the western storm to stop in its tracks-not sure we have that? Expand Cmc kinda did. Let’s see what icon shows it did decent with November storm and yesterday’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:35 PM, David-LI said: I can't believe we are debating low placement and snow totals 150 hours out. Expand I have a lot more to be concerned with for now with 1st semester exams this week. Come Friday, I'll be much more interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Icon 12z looks good for our area for Friday’s event, but it’s mostly a light event (white rain) still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north Icon 12z shows a good thump for Sunday’s event changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:42 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon 12z looks good for our area, but it’s mostly a light event still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north Icon 12z shows a good thump changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain Expand Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:42 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon 12z looks good for our area for Friday’s event, but it’s mostly a light event (white rain) still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north Icon 12z shows a good thump for Sunday’s event changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain Expand Isn't that ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:47 PM, mikem81 said: Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps...850s are likewise coldSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:47 PM, mikem81 said: Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps... Expand On 1/14/2019 at 3:47 PM, JMcCaughey42 said: Isn't that ice? Expand On 1/14/2019 at 3:47 PM, USCG RS said: 850s are likewise cold Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand Yeah my mistake no rain there. temps are in the 20’s so it would be horrendous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:17 PM, bluewave said: It has been the MO of this season so far. Impressive modeled winter storms for the coast day 8-10 becoming less impressive the closer in we get. Expand It just doesn't want to snow. I think if we get to Feb 5 without any snowfall and none on the horizon then I'll probably give up. The pattern just isn't clicking the way it was supposed to. The models trending towards a stronger MJO 5/6 pulse last few days was incredibly discouraging. Latest MJO looks like a repeat of late Dec/early Jan but at a lower amplitude. Nino effects are almost non-existent. It's nothing like 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:54 PM, SnoSki14 said: It just doesn't want to snow. I think if we get to Feb 5 without any snowfall and none on the horizon then I'll probably give up. The pattern just isn't clicking the way it was supposed to. From experience.. Globals always underestimate the cold with a HP like this. In turn, this means the baroclynic gradient is likely going to end up further SE. Now there are caveats, but I would hedge my bets on the northeastern corrider setting a good hit from this Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:47 PM, USCG RS said: 850s are likewise cold Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand Borderline temps above, cold at the surface, heavy mixed precip followed by deep cold the following Monday. It looks like several inches of dense frozen trash followed by flash freezing. You're gonna need a pickaxe to clear this stuff up if you aren't done by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:58 PM, snowman19 said: The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner Expand For the weekend storm? It's only out to hr 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The HP in Canada doesnt look at good on the GFS through 120. Would allow a more NW track IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:58 PM, snowman19 said: The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner Expand Not going to cut with a 1051 high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:09 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Not going to cut with a 1051 high to our north. Expand It's North of last run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:11 PM, Stormlover74 said: It's North of last run so farYet with a 1051 HP to the north... To cut would not make much synoptic sense. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looks like its going to trend towards the CMC/EURO/UKMET. Not what we wanted to see, even though we have 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Amped and Torch city. Oh well. Its gotten very ugly the past 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS continues to bang the drum for one HELL of an icestorm. That is like the perfect (and rare!) setup for an icestorm in NYC. CAD would be much stronger than modeled with a high that strong and the delayed transfer to the coast will let the wind stay NE for longer notwithstanding the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS definitely more amped and north, Snow to Rain for the city, big snow/ice event interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:13 PM, bluewave said: The high is centered over ND.Yeah. I need to look at the actual model before replying. My fault Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:12 PM, USCG RS said: Yet with a 1051 HP to the north... To cut would not make much synoptic sense. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand It doesn't cut but it goes from sw VA to LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 CMC has temps into the high 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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