Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS further north early on....(first system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:23 AM, Albedoman said: Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow bigtime at those ratios. Expand SECS = 6-12 MECS =12-24 HECS = 24-36 BECS =36+ I'm just posting this because you made quite a jump from SECS to BECS, I wasn't sure if you knew of the two in between and purposely skipped them, but I like your thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 First system definitely further North and stronger on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Guys you know HECS and BECS and whatever are just made up words, right? Call any storm whatever you want. I personally am partially to BOOB (Bombogensis Offshore Over Benchmark). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Canadian disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS hit incoming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Another big hit and looks like all snow for the city on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Much faster this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Guys help me out,,, would a stronger first wave on Friday help or hinder the second wave on Saturday/ Sunday and if you can tell me / us why ? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs is further south and cold for this wave All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Outta here by Sunday evening. Still 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:22 AM, Snow88 said: Gfs is further south and cold for this wave All snow Expand Less QPF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Meh. I want more. Greedy and needy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:27 AM, Ericjcrash said: Meh. I want more. Greedy and needy. Expand Really dude ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:27 AM, Snow88 said: Really dude ? Expand I'm 78% kidding. I'll take my 11" and run but I want more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:05 AM, Drz1111 said: Guys you know HECS and BECS and whatever are just made up words, right? Call any storm whatever you want. I personally am partially to BOOB (Bombogensis Offshore Over Benchmark). Expand Not true, I use them in sentences everyday. I'm hoping for some secs today, but first I'm going to have some tex mecs. The witch put a hecs on me, so I drank a lot of becs to ease my anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 With it being SOOOOO cold could ratios be off ? Wouldn't the ratios be better if temps are dropping ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:05 AM, Drz1111 said: Guys you know HECS and BECS and whatever are just made up words, right? Call any storm whatever you want. I personally am partially to BOOB (Bombogensis Offshore Over Benchmark). Expand Appropriate follow up storm 2 months after the November Underforecasted Teaser Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:27 AM, Ericjcrash said: Meh. I want more. Greedy and needy. Expand Ratios could be higher also, especially north of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Para is warmer but this model hasn't been doing great at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:27 AM, Ericjcrash said: Meh. I want more. Greedy and needy. Expand I cant keep track of all the gfs models. Is this the new gfs fv3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:40 AM, yankeex777 said: I cant keep track of all the gfs models. Is this the new gfs fv3? Expand Yankee I believe thats the OLD GFS---> the new one is FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 No sense in getting riled up right now. I'll check back in 5 days, final track won't change that much from the Gfs/EPS imo. Canadian is an awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:58 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: SECS = 6-12 MECS =12-24 HECS = 24-36 BECS =36+ I'm just posting this because you made quite a jump from SECS to BECS, I wasn't sure if you knew of the two in between and purposely skipped them, but I like your thinking. Expand I think SECS should be anywhere up to 6", MECS could up to 16". You're right on the money with the HECS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs is loaded with storms after storms after storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:53 AM, TriPol said: I think SECS should be anywhere up to 6", MECS could up to 16". You're right on the money with the HECS, though. Expand I'd lower HECS to 20" otherwise central park would only have 2 or 3 historic storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gefs continues to look good for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Not that it matters, but here's my take... SECS - 6 TO 12 MECS - 12 TO 18 HECS - 18 TO 30 BECS - 30 PLUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:57 AM, Stormlover74 said: I'd lower HECS to 20" otherwise central park would only have 2 or 3 historic storms Expand Well there's a couple of issues I have with that. The first is Central Park has had 7 storms of 20.0 inches or more and 4 in the last 12 years so I don't know if I'd call that Historic. Throw in Feb 17, 2003 with 19.8 and Jan 26-27, 2011 with 19.0 and you make it 9 storms. The way they use to measure in Central Park either of those could have been over 20. The other is Central Park is one isolated location in a forecast area that goes out in about a 60 mile radius of Central Park. I don't have the exact figures, but I would guess there have been at least 20 storms in the last 20 years within a 60 mile radius of Central Park where at least some locations within that area have had 20 or more inches, so again good storms but hardly IMO historic. I believe Bluewave or Don had a thread on that fairly recently. If it was someone else my apologies, it's a great thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro is snow to heavy rain, yet another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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