Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 There is strong ensemble support for a winter storm in this time frame. All storm related posts belong in here. This will be the first of many threats in the coming weeks. All pattern disco and threats beyond this period can go in the January Disco/obs thread. And yes, I just started a thread for a storm ~7 days away. As we get closer to the 20th, banter will need to be limited. I hope everyone enjoys tracking this storm. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 There goes the threat. GEFS look as good as you could hope for a week out. Basically a BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: There goes the threat. GEFS look as good as you could hope for a week out. Basically a BM track. The ensemble support is overwhelming at this point for an impactful storm for our subforum.. No need to wait. This will be one long ass thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 All teleconnections looks great going forward. If the Pacific jet relaxes we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: The ensemble support is overwhelming at this point for an impactful storm for our subforum.. No need to wait. This will be one long ass thread. I'm forecasting 200-300+ pages if this holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Gonna be a long week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 So nice to have a threat to track. The last 8 weeks have been painfully boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gonna be a long week Yep only 25 more model runs to go. Who the heck needs sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Don't sleep on Friday's wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Does anyone have a GEFS snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Does anyone have a GEFS snowmap? I don't, but judging by qpf a general 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I don't, but judging by qpf a general 6-10" Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Thanks for starting this, from W Windsor NJ. Will follow with interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Does anyone have a GEFS snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman3 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Here you go GEFS snowfall map of northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nice to have a legit threat to follow. I won't become invested in model details until mid week at the earliest. I suspect we will see the "windshield wiper" spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman3 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I agree you can't even think about snowfall maps. key is the 500mb charts around thursday. we need sampling of weather data on thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, weatherman3 said: Here you go GEFS snowfall map of northeast Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The Weather Channel point and click for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday. 10-16 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Weather Channel point and click for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday. 10-16 inches lol Not that they should be putting out numbers but that seems fairly reasonable given current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Don't sleep on Friday's wave Yeah, for real. That thing is actually squarely inside the medium range and offers a fair chance at a widespread light snowfall, the first of met winter. I'm keeping the blockbuster prospects on the back-burner for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Weather Channel point and click for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday. 10-16 inches lol Irresponsible to be putting out specific totals at long-range. Of course, it's the "Weenie" channel (TWC)...so no surprise; all about those ratings. Hype train has already left the station, there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow bigtime at those ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Albedoman said: Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow bigtime at those ratios. Just assume 30:1 and adjust upward as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Albedoman said: Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow bigtime at those ratios. Ratios alone won't produce "big-time" snow drifts. Will need "big-time" winds, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Ratios alone won't produce "big-time" snow drifts. Will need "big-time" winds, as well. Check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ICON is still a torch but at least its not raining in Quebec this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Check. Thanks, Eric. On phone, at stop lights, while on my way home. Hadn't seen the 18z products, yet. We'll see if it all comes together to produce. Too early, still, to know. IF it does, and hoping it does so, I'm leaning towards chasing in this particular sub-forum region. Reason I might be posting in here, time to time. Last winter storm chase was in NYC and on LI, back in late March 2018. Love to do it, again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It's getting there. Track is almost inline with everything else. Still a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.