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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

cyclone77

By cyclone77,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Music to Hoosier's ears: 

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. 
LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FROM BLENDS WITH CHANCE 
OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT SHOWING A 
STRONG SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY 
IMPACTING OUR FAR NW INDIANA COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 
POTENTIAL HERE FOR A VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT COULD REMAIN 
PERSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND DROP VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXTREME 
INSTABILITY EXPECTED GIVEN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SETUP FITS 
CLIMO FOR THE INTENSE HEAVY SNOW SINGLE BANDS IN THIS AREA. STAY 
TUNED!
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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Music to Hoosier's ears: 


BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. 
LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FROM BLENDS WITH CHANCE 
OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT SHOWING A 
STRONG SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY 
IMPACTING OUR FAR NW INDIANA COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 
POTENTIAL HERE FOR A VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT COULD REMAIN 
PERSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND DROP VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXTREME 
INSTABILITY EXPECTED GIVEN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SETUP FITS 
CLIMO FOR THE INTENSE HEAVY SNOW SINGLE BANDS IN THIS AREA. STAY 
TUNED!

Oh yes

Practically everything looks great except the inversion heights which are kind of meh, but still good enough in the presence of the other very favorable factors.  Plus I am basing the comment about the inversion heights off of the GFS.  We'll see if the NAM is a bit better when it gets in range.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Chambana said:

VD 2007 you say :devilsmiley:

That's actually the #1 analog on the list.  Forgot to mention 12/15/07 is also on there, and then some smaller systems. To see several large/memorable storms is nice and basically reinforces what we know -- the potential for something big is there if things play out right. 

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
That's actually the #1 analog on the list.  Forgot to mention 12/15/07 is also on there, and then some smaller systems. To see several large/memorable storms is nice and basically reinforces what we know -- the potential for something big is there if things play out right. 

It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here.

 

Edit: in addition to the above, there was also a significant lake enhancement component to the totals in NW IN, with some localized ~18" amounts.

 

 

 

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mimillman

mimillman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Me me, that was me! :)

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah there are definite similarities, only that event was more SW-NE running with this being W-E, but all the pieces are quite the same. Also that event was preceded with a major event a few days beforehand where as this event was a week difference.

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RobertSul

RobertSul

Posted
Posted
Just now, Stebo said:

Yeah there are definite similarities, only that event was more SW-NE running with this being W-E, but all the pieces are quite the same.

All other things being equal, would a W-E trajectory be more beneficial for our area?

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's actually the #1 analog on the list.  Forgot to mention 12/15/07 is also on there, and then some smaller systems. To see several large/memorable storms is nice and basically reinforces what we know -- the potential for something big is there if things play out right. 

One of the most incredible storms that I've ever lived through. 17" in Ottawa - I think Toronto got about 8-10" out of that.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Jackpot

 

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Good jog northwest. Great set up for lake enhancement/lake effect. 1045+mb high incoming. Great ratios.

I’m getting ahead of myself, but you gotta love this.

Sorry, I'm just scrolling through all of this. How is it looking for Toronto? I'm hoping for at least 2-4" and for temperatures to drop to zero behind the storm.

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted

DVN is pretty bullish, already featuring categorical probs for the entire CWA for Friday night.  

Friday/Saturday... This period represents a potential stronger
system and more impactful winter weather, as energy diving south
from Canada attempts to phase with energy in strong southern
stream jet. While confidence is increasing that the area will be
impacted by a round of wintry precipitation, it remains low on
timing/track and subsequent precipitation amounts/type. Northern
energy looks to dislodge a large chunk of Arctic air sending it
southward. This will aid in enhancement of the baroclinicity/
thermal gradient, which coupled with strong dynamics (left exit
region) should be favorable for strong frontal circulation and
FGen forcing. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see models trend
stronger and subsequently wetter with this system.

Bottom line for now... Confidence is increasing on a storm system
to impact the area Friday PM into Saturday with accumulating
snow, and a chance for a wintry mix mainly south. Low confidence
exists on any amounts and location. Still a lot of details that
need to get resolved, but anyone planning travel late this week
and weekend will need to stay tuned on this potential winter
storm.
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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

One similarity between all of the AFD's  from Iowa through Ohio, "If you have travel plans this weekend please be aware" etc or something like that.  There were 7 deaths across the board attributed to last weekends snow.  Not sure if the wording is in response or if they see the potential for a really big debilitating widespread storm.  I've just never seen consistent wording like that across so many AFD's this far out.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
Yeah there are definite similarities, only that event was more SW-NE running with this being W-E, but all the pieces are quite the same. Also that event was preceded with a major event a few days beforehand where as this event was a week difference.
Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yep and some of the EPS members did have one, even a couple sniffing out a mix locally.

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mimillman

mimillman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Euro was pretty close to a neutral tilt, just a tad too late.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
DVN is pretty bullish, already featuring categorical probs for the entire CWA for Friday night. 
Friday/Saturday... This period represents a potential strongersystem and more impactful winter weather, as energy diving southfrom Canada attempts to phase with energy in strong southernstream jet. While confidence is increasing that the area will beimpacted by a round of wintry precipitation, it remains low ontiming/track and subsequent precipitation amounts/type. Northernenergy looks to dislodge a large chunk of Arctic air sending itsouthward. This will aid in enhancement of the baroclinicity/thermal gradient, which coupled with strong dynamics (left exitregion) should be favorable for strong frontal circulation andFGen forcing. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see models trendstronger and subsequently wetter with this system.Bottom line for now... Confidence is increasing on a storm systemto impact the area Friday PM into Saturday with accumulatingsnow, and a chance for a wintry mix mainly south. Low confidenceexists on any amounts and location. Still a lot of details thatneed to get resolved, but anyone planning travel late this weekand weekend will need to stay tuned on this potential winterstorm.

Just as an aside, about the way PoPs are done in extended range at central region offices, we have a model blend called superblend that includes previous forecast, and certain percentages of raw model (which are themselves derived from model QPF) and MOS pops. Sometimes this can be fairly deterministic and be prone to fairly large shift to shift changes. However, it's by and large a huge time saver for us to do it this way.

Superblend is the baseline starting point period 4 (12z 2 days from now) and onward on a day shift for all of our weather elements and we collaborate changes to these elements when needed (most often temps, pops and qpf). Eventually this year, probably delayed because of the shutdown, we'll he going to the National Blend as our starting point and I think that'll be done nationally.

When there is categorical pops several days out, if surrounding offices don't feel they're warranted, we often lower them to likely or even cap them at chance (25-54%). Having worked today, there was no chatter about changing the Friday night 06z-12z pops given the overall very good agreement in the models and their ensembles in measurable qpf in that 6 hour period.

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