Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12z Euro Kuchera has a pretty broad area of 6+. Northern extent near the IL/WI border over into southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro Kuchera has a pretty broad area of 6+. Northern extent near the IL/WI border over into southern MI. Ratios save areas to the north. Dry air aloft not as big of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 A good thing to note is the wild fluctuations all the models have been doing run to run proves more data is needed, hopefully there's more sampling for 0Z tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro Kuchera has a pretty broad area of 6+. Northern extent near the IL/WI border over into southern MI. PIA total precip and snow? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: A good thing to note is the wild fluctuations all the models have been doing run to run proves more data is needed, hopefully there's more sampling for 0Z tonight and tomorrow Not gonna see any real sampling until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I don’t have the lake and I’m feeling really good about a decent snow from this system. Probably not a huge storm, but in almost every scenario, Iowa sees snow. If the southern stream wave misses us, the stronger Thursday night wave does. Kind of like our version of a failsafe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: It won't be fully sampled until Friday. The models are basically saying now, this energy is not that impressive. I could even see a further north move without one iota of improvement in terms of its structure just on general bias............. Of course when something is in the dead lands of the central pacific.............it is not easy to sample. We have had several storms in the 120-144 range look incredible to only fizzle out 24-48 hours later. Point is, you can’t bake a cake without the ingredients. Even if it fizzles out because the energy is unimpressive, for the 1st time this winter I feel like we have all of the other ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: PIA total precip and snow? thanks Subtracting the small amount of precip that falls on Thursday, it looks like just under 0.5" qpf and about 7-8" on the Kuchera map. The Kuchera map is putting out ratios around 20:1 on the northern end. Wouldn't necessarily roll with that 5 days out but it should be a better indicator than the 10:1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro ensembles are solid. North of the OP. Edit: would be hard pressed to find ensemble runs with such widespread 6”+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Subtracting the small amount of precip that falls on Thursday, it looks like just under 0.5" qpf and about 7-8" on the Kuchera map. The Kuchera map is putting out ratios around 20:1 on the northern end. Wouldn't necessarily roll with that 5 days out but it should be a better indicator than the 10:1 map. A few soundings along I-80 show a rather deep DGZ and temps in the teens. Probably 20:1 is a touch overdone but somewhere around 13-17:1 seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Old run, just pointing it out. Well here is the new run. It's still more than 5 days away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: That is DOA already. Way too much snow over the northeast on a energy wave that far southwest. How it gets it there is just about impossible. ?? Not like the energy plunges into the south and rots away. It keeps moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 36 minutes ago, mimillman said: Euro ensembles are solid. North of the OP. Edit: would be hard pressed to find ensemble runs with such widespread 6”+ amounts. Just to add onto this, the mean is stronger than last night's run at day 5.5 also there are many systems sub 1000 mb and travelling along or north of the Ohio River, so the op is by far the weaker and further south of any Euro data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lets encase that Ohio snowpack in until April. Tune and gas them generators up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just to give an idea of the wiggle room around Chicago/NW IN because of the lake, the Euro manages to produce 10-12"+ with a system tracking through Arkansas to southern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: ?? Not like the energy plunges into the south and rots away. It keeps moving east. Yeah a lot of that is jet driven and slow moving cold frontal. I believe what it is showing at face value of the run itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah a lot of that is jet driven and slow moving cold frontal. I believe what it is showing at face value of the run itself. Worth noting this another Saturday day event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Typically these winter storms that require so many pieces to come together rarely pan out. Just so sensitive to the smallest of changes. So many PV's involved and that brutal high pressure. Honestly it is a crap shoot at this point. Feel like the high end potential of this isn't super high but feel like a moderate event is more likely. Not discounting a powerhouse storm but atm I'm not feeling confident in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Typically these winter storms that require so many pieces to come together rarely pan out. Just so sensitive to the smallest of changes. So many PV's involved and that brutal high pressure. Honestly it is a crap shoot at this point. Feel like the high end potential of this isn't super high but feel like a moderate event is more likely. Not discounting a powerhouse storm but atm I'm not feeling confident in that ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Typically these winter storms that require so many pieces to come together rarely pan out. Just so sensitive to the smallest of changes. So many PV's involved and that brutal high pressure. Honestly it is a crap shoot at this point. Feel like the high end p otential of this isn't super high but feel like a moderate event is more likely. Not discounting a powerhouse storm but atm I'm not feeling confident in that whaadya mean? Yesterday it was a sure thing...I had a repeat already pegged of that February 2nd storm from several years back...but with stronger winds. Now it's complicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I guess I should say multiple vorts involved instead. Just isn't looking like a slam dunk winter storm. A lot has to time right and position right. Also need to see if this thurs system is weak or amped. Not saying we won't see a major winter storm, just more complications than the last one. Not as clear cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looks like a couple of strong clippers could come in behind next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I guess I should say multiple vorts involved instead. Just isn't looking like a slam dunk winter storm. A lot has to time right and position right. Also need to see if this thurs system is weak or amped. Not saying we won't see a major winter storm, just more complications than the last one. Not as clear cut Yes there's more pieces but the possibility of a stronger storm as in wind and rates is much higher with this one as opposed to the last one. Don't think this one is going to be a nice 24-36 hour pixie fest, should have more teeth if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I guess I should say multiple vorts involved instead. Just isn't looking like a slam dunk winter storm. A lot has to time right and position right. Also need to see if this thurs system is weak or amped. Not saying we won't see a major winter storm, just more complications than the last one. Not as clear cut there is no such thing as a slam dunk winter storm. That said, you've got a lot of key players on the field as we enter a dramatic pattern change. Percentages are decent of a fairly widespread moderate to high end event impacting a good chunk of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baum said: there is no such thing as a slam dunk winter storm. That said, you've got a lot of key players on the field as we enter a dramatic pattern change. Percentages are decent of a fairly widespread moderate to high end event impacting a good chunk of this forum. Agree. Last weekend was no more of a slam dunk than this or any other storm. No storm is a slam dunk. But the signal for a widespread event is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lots of great eps members! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Still pretty far away but it's looking like downstate IL is looking pretty good for this. Hoping for 3+ inches of fluff to freshen up the snowpack here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I mean last weekend was more so just a large long duration WAA snow event. Had a lot of lift and isentropic upglide ahead of a slow moving upper low. This system has quite a few more pieces that have to interact just right for it to go gangbusters. That's what I'm saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I mean last weekend was more so just a large long duration WAA snow event. Had a lot of lift and isentropic upglide ahead of a slow moving upper low. This system has quite a few more pieces that have to interact just right for it to go gangbusters. That's what I'm saying Last weekend was definitely not a long duration WAA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The surface high/pressure gradient in GHD 2011 was mentioned earlier. The gradient peaked at around 57 mb (1055 mb high and 998 mb low). Whether we can get that kind of gradient with this one remains to be seen... most models are currently under. There are some old school rules for determining wind potential from the pressure gradient and distance between isobars. Obviously the difference between the high and low doesn't tell the whole story since the distance matters too, among other factors. Based on the current modeling, and assuming it doesn't back off on the pressures too much, I'd feel relatively confident about a zone of 40 mph gusts to the north of the track. Certainly could go higher but that would be a decent starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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