AppsRunner Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Feeling about as good as I could in Iowa. Definitely going to need the snow to make the -10s/-20s afterwards at least somewhat bearable. Looking forward to tracking this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro bumped north. I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio. Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Euro bumped north. I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio. Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be It obviously would be if the euro is right. Other models are showing freezing rain too just not like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 As the mayhem of placement starts to narrow I'm thinking +FZRN will dominate some ones forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Euro bumped north. I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio. Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be The Euro may be sniffing something out ... certainly a long ways to go, but I really don't want to be staring down the barrel of a massive ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 As the mayhem of placement starts to narrow I'm thinking +FZRN will dominate some ones forecast.Agreed.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 First system north and amped again on the GFS. Actually gets some snow up to Chicago on this run. We’ll see how it plays out downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'm intrigued about this period...but there are some fail points. The first potential issue is if that lead wave on Wed/Thur continues to show up in a more organized way, which could lead to a less favorable environment (such as lower heights) for this main system to follow. The second potential issue would be lesser phasing or a total missed phase between the northern and southern stream waves for this main system. The third potential issue would be how far north/south the southern wave comes through the West. The final potential issue would the placement of the PV over Canada, and if it ends up further north or south. So while I can see a big dog happening with 12"+ amounts somewhere, I could also see a weaker/unorganized system way south as well. Edit: Another issue is also placement on northern stream, coming around the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 PV looks like it took a decent jog southwest on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 hours ago, AppsRunner said: Feeling about as good as I could in Iowa. Definitely going to need the snow to make the -10s/-20s afterwards at least somewhat bearable. Looking forward to tracking this week. Yea no matter how models handle this one, much of Iowa seems to receive some amount of snow. It’s almost a lock in that it does, indeed, snow. How much is a different story lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 that thursday system kills us. Still a nice signal for LE however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12Z GEM is north but a Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 in between the GEM/GFS solutions. Doesn't look like a huge hit anywhere west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The 12z FV3 has slowed the PV lobe noticeably compared to the 00z run, allowing the main energy to amp up a little more... definitely an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I may be wrong here but I think the set up would favor suppression over a GGEM like solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'm intrigued about this period...but there are some fail points. The first potential issue is if that lead wave on Wed/Thur continues to show up in a more organized way, which could lead to a less favorable environment (such as lower heights) for this main system to follow. The second potential issue would be lesser phasing or a total missed phase between the northern and southern stream waves for this main system. The third potential issue would be how far north/south the southern wave comes through the West. The final potential issue would the placement of the PV over Canada, and if it ends up further north or south. So while I can see a big dog happening with 12"+ amounts somewhere, I could also see a weaker/unorganized system way south as well. Edit: Another issue is also placement on northern stream, coming around the PV. I agree. This has all the makings of a major storm but with so many pieces and that lead system, it definitely complicates matters. I couldn't help but notice though that the amount of moisture, the placement and strength of the high reminded me of GHD 2011 but I know that trough went neg tilt and the sfc low got decently strong as it passed through southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ukie goes from central Arkansas to western Virginia between hours 120-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 I don't really follow the Ukie all that much, but from what I've seen it seems to bounce around from run to run way more than other medium-range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yea that seems drastically different from last night which was like pound town for IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z FV3 has slowed the PV lobe noticeably compared to the 00z run, allowing the main energy to amp up a little more... definitely an improvement. It’s a solid hit for a good chunk of us. Would take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro good deal stronger with 1st wave. GFS could be onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, mimillman said: It’s a solid hit for a good chunk of us. Would take that and run Agree. And, you just get the feeling that the intense cold/PV in southern Canada is waiting to be tapped at some point. Just need a clipper and/or major storm to drag it down. Obviously it's very far out there and hasn't really moved up in time...but, verbatim, thicknesses on the 12z FV3 are sub-500 for much of the western Great Lakes for the entire Day 12-16 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro looks a lot better for those in the 00z EPS mean area. C/N IL --> C/N IN etcetc Scratch that, take like... half the QPF of 00z :'( The LES is decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro shunted good deal south of 00z. Still, it looks decent for most of the sub forum especially factoring in higher ratios. One big difference I’ve noticed is the Euro actually closing off the low at 500mb. Trough axis tries to go neutral but is just a tad too late, perhaps due to a slightly more southwestern positioning of the PV this run. It’s very close and needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Columbus to Canton will be a glacier if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Chinook said: Columbus to Canton will be a glacier if this happens. Old run, just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Euro shunted good deal south of 00z. Still, it looks decent for most of the sub forum especially factoring in higher ratios. One big difference I’ve noticed is the Euro actually closing off the low at 500mb. Trough axis tries to go neutral but is just a tad too late, perhaps due to a slightly more southwestern positioning of the PV this run. It’s very close and needs to be watched. Nice to have the lake as a fallback option. I don't know if I've ever felt this good about 4+ this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Nice to have the lake as a fallback option. I don't know if I've ever felt this good about 4+ this far out kiss of death.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Nice to have the lake as a fallback option. I don't know if I've ever felt this good about 4+ this far out That lake effect signal following the storm is crazy. Very rarely have seen it that distinct, this far away from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Baum said: kiss of death.... Hopefully the kiss of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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