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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

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9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Looks like some LE radar returns showing up just north of Milwaukee heading south

Yep. Pretty consistent agreement that LE signal will start to really crank around 9-10P, and impacting the western shore of LM until about 5-6A. Looks like NWI will spread spoils throughout the day on Sunday. Verbatim, output seems to favor localized jackpots in a Gary-Chesterton-Valpo-Merrillville box, roughly. Excited to watch it unfold!

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27 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lake effect snow showers starting over Chicago. Latest HRRR parks the main band over us around 2-3am for a few hours. I anticipate snowfall rates 1+” hr...may need to set the alarm! My call is for 2.5” additional overnight with maybe an inch possible Sunday night once the band rotated back 

Hope it works out.

00z HRRR has it over here for like 7 hours as it takes on an increasingly snake like character.  Can only hope.  We'll see what it does with the westward movement later in the run.

Edit:  like a 2-3 hour break and then it moves back in.

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26 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lake effect snow showers starting over Chicago. Latest HRRR parks the main band over us around 2-3am for a few hours. I anticipate snowfall rates 1+” hr...may need to set the alarm! My call is for 2.5” additional overnight with maybe an inch possible Sunday night once the band rotated back 

Getting a few flurries down in eastern kankakee county.  Guessing it's a bit of lake influence 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hope it works out.

00z HRRR has it over here for like 7 hours as it takes on an increasingly snake like character.  Can only hope.  We'll see what it does with the westward movement later in the run.

Looking forward to seeing how it depicts full evolution. 

Streamers look to be hitting IKK right now.

EDIT: HRRR is going to slam Lake County...

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36 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lake effect snow showers starting over Chicago. Latest HRRR parks the main band over us around 2-3am for a few hours. I anticipate snowfall rates 1+” hr...may need to set the alarm! My call is for 2.5” additional overnight with maybe an inch possible Sunday night once the band rotated back 

Hoping we get some remnants of it this far west. Be nice to squeeze another inch from this system

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Over .5" precip in Lake county.  At face value this run is probably 12+, but it could all change of course.

Yep, looks like a max of 0.68 around the Gary vicinity. Fairly widespread 10"+ amounts in the core of Lake County. Chicago proper even cashes in around 4-6". 

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24 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I just hit 50 on my anemometer! Holy god this is as close to ‘78 as I have ever seen

That sounds crazy! Note: only 30 kt (35mph) wind gusts at KTDZ (Walbridge area) have been measured. That in itself causes a lot of drifting.

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26 minutes ago, King James said:

Getting a few flurries down in eastern kankakee county.  Guessing it's a bit of lake influence 

IKK gets LES, but it's usually lighter by the time it gets here. Sloppy seconds I like to call it. :lol: Eastern half of the county tends to do better, which I believe is where you're located...right? Best LES event I can recall around here was in the winter of 2013-14. Streamer rode I-57, dropping 4". Of course all it did was snow that winter. :D

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3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

IKK gets LES, but it's usually lighter by the time it gets here. Sloppy seconds I like to call it. :lol: Eastern half of the county tends to do better, which I believe is where you're located...right? Best LES event I can recall around here was in the winter of 2013-14. Streamer rode I-57, dropping 4". Of course all it did was snow that winter. :D

Yes sir, about 9 miles from IN, in the old border town.  Like some other posters, going to try and stay up a bit later tonight to see if anything materializes down here

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
806 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
806 PM CST  
  
FOR EVENING UPDATE...  
  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE AS EXPECTED, WITH  
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REMAINING SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF TRANSITION TO  
A MORE INTENSE SINGLE-BAND STRUCTURE LATE THIS EVENING. GOING   
FORECAST HAS THIS DETAILED NICELY, WITH HEADLINES STRUCTURED   
APPROPRIATELY.  
  
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE  
OHIO RIVER OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE   
GRADIENT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY REGIONS, PRODUCING GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRONG   
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SNOW ASSOCIATED   
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA,   
THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR TRAVERSING LAKE MICHIGAN WAS RESULTING IN   
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF   
NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES   
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING  
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST   
SHORE OF THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH A TRANSITION FROM   
CURRENT LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS INTO A STRONGER   
LARGELY SINGLE BAND LES PLUME LATER TONIGHT. WHILE INVERSION   
HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 6500-7500 FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT   
INTO SUNDAY, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG   
LES WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE SINGLE-BAND   
PLUME. LAKE SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T'S AROUND 20C, LARGE POSITIVE  
AREA/CAPE BELOW THE INVERSION, AND CLOUD LAYER TEMPS WITHIN THE   
FAVORED -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALL SUPPORT STRONG   
CONVECTIVE SNOW ELEMENTS. 4KM NAM/NMM/HRRR ARE ALL GENERALLY   
SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHEAST  
IL AFTER 9-10 PM THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST CONVERGENT AXIS   
SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM LAKE CO. IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS COOK CO. IL   
OVERNIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST IN BY EARLY SUNDAY   
MORNING. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST   
FARTHER INLAND, THOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF  
SUBSTANCE APPEAR LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE LAKE-ADJACENT   
COUNTIES OF LAKE (IL), COOK, LAKE (IN) AND PORTER. THIS IS EXACTLY  
AS INDICATED IN FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT, AND SEE NO NEED FOR  
ANY CHANGES TO THE DETAILS OR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  

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Been pound town here for the last 2.5 hours. Winding down now but definitely 1-2 in/hr rates for most of the defo..  We might have 4 total hard to say.  Been out drift busting though, man what a blast.  I'm on the edge of town and out in the country is fun city!!  Visibility down to my windshield lol. Totals get a 2 on the 10 scale, blowing and drifting snow a 12!  You guys that are getting the big snows look out, this wind means business.

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25 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

HRRRCHI_prec_kuchsnow_036.png

 

Lock 'er up, Hoosier. :lol:

Sorta wish I could unsee that.

That's what's great about these things though.  Hours before it starts and you really don't know what's going to happen.  You can say that for some synoptic storms but it's just a different feel with LES.  The stakes are different in a place like this too since significant/big events can and do occur, but not with regularity like the traditional snowbelt.  So when you miss out, it's usually a longer wait.

The nice thing about this setup is that missing out is probably still like 3-5", given the expected organization and great agreement on it shifting back west later tomorrow.

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21 minutes ago, Chinook said:

That sounds crazy! Note: only 30 kt (35mph) wind gusts at KTDZ (Walbridge area) have been measured. That in itself causes a lot of drifting.

Yeah I have a little kestrel and am a little south and east of that but she hit officially 49. Probably pretty close to accurate as I had to take a step back

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