Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm shocked ILN hasn't downgraded the Warning in many areas.

From their AFD a short time ago...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the KILN sounding showing the warm layer up to 4C, along
with surface temperatures above freezing working as far north as
Columbus and Dayton areas, have brought band of freezing
precipitation further north with this warm air push. The
transition to stronger CAA doesn't develop until closer to 22-00z,
when the precipitation will transition quickly to a quick band
of mixed precipitation and then all snow with this push. As a
result, snow totals coming in slightly lower. What this
afternoon's snow totals may be lacking have a high potential to
be made up with the set up of a deformation band in the enhanced
lift expected late this evening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jim Martin said:

From their AFD a short time ago...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the KILN sounding showing the warm layer up to 4C, along
with surface temperatures above freezing working as far north as
Columbus and Dayton areas, have brought band of freezing
precipitation further north with this warm air push. The
transition to stronger CAA doesn't develop until closer to 22-00z,
when the precipitation will transition quickly to a quick band
of mixed precipitation and then all snow with this push. As a
result, snow totals coming in slightly lower. What this
afternoon's snow totals may be lacking have a high potential to
be made up with the set up of a deformation band in the enhanced
lift expected late this evening. 

Exactly this. The defo band will likely makeup for everything ILN missed out on this morning/afternoon. Would hate to be in the areas that got really iced, only to get followed up with heavy snow AND wind as the cold air wraps around. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Its a god awful mess out here.  .25 in of ice if not more sagging tree limbs everywhere  it's going to get scary this evening.

More precip heading your way from the sw.  My point forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow for me the remainder of the day, yet I am have freezing rain starting to accrete on wires and tree branches.  No mention of ice in current point forecast from NWS.  WTHR reporting that Boone, Hamilton, Madison, and Delaware counties are getting significant ice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

More precip heading your way from the sw.  My point forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow for me the remainder of the day, yet I am have freezing rain starting to accrete on wires and tree branches.  No mention of ice in current point forecast from NWS.

It just started snowing lol.  This is a hell of a lot more ice than I expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll be issuing something for the lake effect this afternoon, leaning advisory at this time. HRRR soundings in the band tonight look very good for IL shore. As has been mentioned already, trend has been to be a bit more progressive along the IL shore and slow it down into NW IN on Sunday. As of now, and obviously subject to change my biggest concern for 6"+ totals is NW IN. NAM and FV3 max out low level convergence and omega near the Lake/Porter border tomorrow morning and appear to favor longer residence time there before the band swings back west tomorrow night.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

More precip heading your way from the sw.  My point forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow for me the remainder of the day, yet I am have freezing rain starting to accrete on wires and tree branches.  No mention of ice in current point forecast from NWS.  WTHR reporting that Boone, Hamilton, Madison, and Delaware counties are getting significant ice.

I can confirm. Got way more ice than expected in Hamilton County and the trees are feeling it. Heard some good cracking about an hour ago. We have finally transitioned to sleet/tad bit of snow but the power has already flickered a few times. We'll see...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As always, when there is wind I struggle to get a good measurement.  I'm going with 4.5".

It appears the wind destroyed the ratio(the blowing snow really compacts).  Despite the wind, my gauge still caught 0.53", which suggests even more than that fell.  However, even the 3.1" on my snow board melted down to 0.48", a terrible 6.5 to 1 ratio.  I know we got more than 3.1".  The reports from in and around Cedar Rapids range from about 4.5 to 6", so I'm going with the low end of that.  I always end up with the low end of the range where there is wind.

Much of the Des Moines warning area crapped out, only receiving 0-2".  The MN/IA border area was the winner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

We'll be issuing something for the lake effect this afternoon, leaning advisory at this time. HRRR soundings in the band tonight look very good for IL shore. As has been mentioned already, trend has been to be a bit more progressive along the IL shore and slow it down into NW IN on Sunday. As of now, and obviously subject to change my biggest concern for 6"+ totals is NW IN. NAM and FV3 max out low level convergence and omega near the Lake/Porter border tomorrow morning and appear to favor longer residence time there before the band swings back west tomorrow night.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Do you think the band could still be pretty healthy tomorrow evening into early Monday?  Seems to me like conditions are still pretty good at that time.  And another thing I've learned over the years is that once the band gets organized, it sometimes takes longer than the models think for it to break down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting blasted here in Columbus Grove, OH. 30dbz snow bands training over my head. Haven't bothered measuring as I cannot find a decent enough sheltered area to attempt, but I did get some wind gusts. Clocked a high of 32mph from my bedroom window, with the entire period (3-5min) sustained around 18-20mph. Drifiting starting to get pretty significant in places. Absolute joy of a storm to watch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hoosier said:

Do you think the band could still be pretty healthy tomorrow evening into early Monday?  Seems to me like conditions are still pretty good at that time.  And another thing I've learned over the years is that once the band gets organized, it sometimes takes longer than the models think for it to break down.

Looping through the mesoscale model interpretations is interesting. Merely entertainment, but the 18Z HRRR had a pretty wild interpretation. This will be a fun one to watch unfold. Not necessarily for big dump potential, but the evolution. Field seems to have widened with regards to who is at play, but I still feel the general consensus around spread & totals seems to be on track. Someone in Lake (poss. Porter, too) will pull 6-8". 

...now watch me regret saying that and Michigan City activates its magnet. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Looping through the mesoscale model interpretations is interesting. Merely entertainment, but the 18Z HRRR had a pretty wild interpretation. This will be a fun one to watch unfold. Not necessarily for big dump potential, but the evolution. Field seems to have widened with regards to who is at play, but I still feel the general consensus around spread & totals seems to be on track. Someone in Lake (poss. Porter, too) will pull 6-8". 

...now watch me regret saying that and Michigan City activates its magnet. 

LOT goes 2-5" for Cook, 3-6" and locally higher for Lake/Porter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The global models will have a rule: We will never talk again about the storm on the 17-19th of January of 2019...........forget..........forget.

Hindsight of course is 20/20, but a few of the 12z/18z runs (12z GFS, 12z CMC, 18z 12kNAM are the ones that appear in my head from memory) from Thursday had the setup nailed down the fairly well in IN/OH/parts of SEMI. Of course then things went down the drain at 00z that night setting up 24 hours or so of flat out mayhem. It will be interesting when this is all said and done to look back more deeply and determine what the system itself did, how it affected models in the close ranges, and if there is anything models could do to get a better grip on occurrences like this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...