mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lake effect band starting right on time around Sheboygan, WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, mimillman said: Still no word from LOT on the lake effect this evening/tomorrow iI would guess an advisory to start with 3-5...band might be pretty instense but it is pretty transient....rates will likely peak in NW IND then move back west in a weaker form of course any mesolows could cause surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Solid 10” or so out there. Blowing and drifting all over the place. Will get some pics when I get out there to clear things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Recently from LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 radar returns increasing over COOK county back towards LOT last 20 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Recently from LOT Noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Storm Trending further North and strong, likely increasing snow totals across NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: radar returns increasing over COOK county back towards LOT last 20 minutes or so Some banding starting to set up. Hopefully it stays together and just sits on the top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: This is good to hear. When do you expect the heaviest snow rates? I'd be happy with 2" at the rate this storm has been trending, but 4" would be great. This afternoon and mid to late evening into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I would think if trends were to continue that LOT would post a LE snow watch/warning for cook and Lake Co IN soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This band right over the city is cranking! Starting to cover the roads again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:35 PM, AppsRunner said: There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal. This ended up being pretty accurate. Somewhere between 1.5-2.5" in Ames, A little bit more in DSM. Less anywhere west of I-35. Brutal storm. Glad to see some others that had been struggling for years cash in (Cyclone77) and others getting a big storm + lake-effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: This band right over the city is cranking! Starting to cover the roads again maybe deeper lake enhancement then before seeded by the tail end of the system snow.?...may moderate/weaken as the system seeds move out until later this evening one thing is for sure these usually have surprises ..don't recall the date but years ago a meso low formed keeping the band over Lake county IL ...12+ inches in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Three to four inches here. Blowing around quite a bit. Has snowed since 3AM. Light snow continues to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 About 7.8" down. That should be the storm total as LES should not affect my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5.2” here Will probably be the total unless LES gets this far west which I doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 MKE update on LES REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 957 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 UPDATE STEADY SNOW CAUSED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY HAS ABOUT LOST ITS GRIP OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. MAINLY LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS, WITH MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. MAY EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL DUE TO THREAT FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN EASTERN AREAS. WILL LIKELY LET INLAND COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 18Z. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NNE BY LATE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ON EASTERN PARTS OF THE THREE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191609Z - 191915Z SUMMARY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. NORTH OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION, INDIANA TO NEAR DELAWARE, OHIO, MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED. A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES HAS DEVELOPED FROM ROCHESTER, INDIANA TO NEAR ANN ARBOR, MI. THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND MATCHES 12Z NAM CROSS SECTIONS WHICH HAD AN AREA OF NEGATIVE SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY (EPV) ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THIS AREA OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY(CSI) IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY 18Z AND THEN REDEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. SNOWFALL RATES BENEATH THESE HEAVIER BANDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER BANDS, SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 YeeHaw!! nothin but crap around here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Jackstraw said: YeeHaw!! nothin but crap around here lol Don't worry, your forecast says the Snow and Freezing Rain will change to All Snow after noon. Just 30 more minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, nwohweather said: Going to be one sharp cut off when this thing tilts. Current numbers verbatim go with 4” for Toledo, 6” for Toledo Express and 8” for Findlay. Does appear as there is some convective feedback issues on the GFS as it wants to dump a foot from Columbus over to Youngstown with sharp gradients up to the northwest corner of the state. Just really curious where the deformation sets up as so many times we have seen it go west and north of where it was forecasted. 30-40 mile miss could be a huge difference As I said earlier this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Don't worry, your forecast says the Snow and Freezing Rain will change to All Snow after noon. Just 30 more minutes. It's been snowing for 2 hours 2 miles to the north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Im thinking someone in SE MI and maybe even Metro Detroit gets 6-8" out of this storm. The updated AFD mentions that they've bumped snow totals up a bit and that the system is slightly further north and west of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Im thinking someone in SE MI and maybe even Metro Detroit gets 6-8" out of this storm. The updated AFD mentions that they've bumped snow totals up a bit and that the system is slightly further north and west of guidance. Can confirm here in Royal Oak, MI. Current rates and radar trends have me thinking this will be a bit of an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, n1vek said: Can confirm here in Royal Oak, MI. Current rates and radar trends have me thinking this will be a bit of an over performer. Thats great news for the GTA. Toronto just needed a slight bump north and west to go from 2-5" into the 4-8" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1051 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 UPDATE 1045 AM CST THE WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKING TO END ON TIME. STILL, BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OCCASIONALLY ARE SEEN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ONE SUCH BAND IS JUST SOUTH OF I-55 OVER THE CHICAGO METRO INTO GRUNDY COUNTY AS OF 1045 AM. ANOTHER COUPLE SUCH BANDS MAY BE SEEN SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, GIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE 600 MB (AS OBSERVED ON 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS). DISORGANIZED, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION FROM JUST THAT. IN TERMS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER THE FALLING SNOW, REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND WEBCAM IMAGES THUS FAR HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY OR MAJOR ROAD IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW ENDS. IF THE MESSAGE IS STILL JUST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY IN OPEN LOCATIONS, WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT IN THE FORECAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE NEEDED. CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE TO STRONG SINGLE BAND LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND THE BEHAVIOR/PIVOTING OF THIS LIKELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH THIS AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE PLUS INCHES, ESPECIALLY LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND LAKE COUNTY IN INDIANA MAINLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: I would think if trends were to continue that LOT would post a LE snow watch/warning for cook and Lake Co IN soon. LE snow headlines no longer exist. It would either be WWA or WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1051 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 UPDATE 1045 AM CST THE WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKING TO END ON TIME. STILL, BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OCCASIONALLY ARE SEEN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ONE SUCH BAND IS JUST SOUTH OF I-55 OVER THE CHICAGO METRO INTO GRUNDY COUNTY AS OF 1045 AM. ANOTHER COUPLE SUCH BANDS MAY BE SEEN SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, GIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE 600 MB (AS OBSERVED ON 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS). DISORGANIZED, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION FROM JUST THAT. IN TERMS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER THE FALLING SNOW, REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND WEBCAM IMAGES THUS FAR HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY OR MAJOR ROAD IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW ENDS. IF THE MESSAGE IS STILL JUST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY IN OPEN LOCATIONS, WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT IN THE FORECAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE NEEDED. CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE TO STRONG SINGLE BAND LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND THE BEHAVIOR/PIVOTING OF THIS LIKELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH THIS AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE PLUS INCHES, ESPECIALLY LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND LAKE COUNTY IN INDIANA MAINLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. Yes, prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Guidance now putting more emphasis on a highly transient lake band. Significant mesolow influence toward the second half of its lifecycle, too. Seems to now max out over Porter, but with so many cards on the table I’d be hesitant to place a bet on “ground zero”. General spread the wealth looks likely, with some interesting lollipop potential in NWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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