RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: 00z GFS more amped with 1st wave again Sorry, I see you meant that little wave out ahead of the main show. Could have some impact tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Sorry, I see you meant that little wave out ahead of the main show. Could have some impact tho We were discussing earlier. It’s impact as a stronger system would lead to less amplified heights for the main show, favoring a southern solution. There are other factors in play though, we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS even more suppressed south it seems still a decent hit for north central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 MSLP further south and also faster. Still a glob of precip to the north. Decent hit for the sub forum, St Louis cashes in again. Lake effect set up is good for the western shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 PV is just too strong this run not to mention the Thursday system also stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GEM is north of 12Z and more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Oh and PA to New England get crushed... Yeah hardest pass ever on that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GEM keeps the Thursday system much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Need these models to be over-blowing that HP drop. Delay the plunge of that just enough and things change imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GGEM looked good but then turns this into some sort of elaborate cold front. The LE signal nonetheless is strong here and as Hoosier was mentioning earlier, I think Milwaukee to northern Indiana should be monitoring closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, RobertSul said: Don't shame me too hard for posting this, but found this little gem off Weather.com for my locale. Have yet to see anything over a half inch this season. If it completely covers the grass, I'll be a satisfied man! (Real low standards this year) We saw several 1-1.5" events in November but since then just a few dustings. Im sure you went over a half inch in Nov a few times vut i get what youre saying. Standards far lower than usual this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Reminder we're still 5 to 6 days out and to not get too disappointed or overexcited at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Oooh, that's reassuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Not sure if QPF from Weathermodels.com is allowed, but here's the UKMET to go along with the post above. ^ Let me know if it's prohibited like the Euro was a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Great look. I'm doing long term part of forecast next 2 days at LOT. Should be fun. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Reminder we're still 5 to 6 days out and to not get too disappointed or overexcited at this point This. It’s not a matter of “it can change in the coming days”.. but more certainly it “will change in the coming days”. Too much up in the air at this point. Personally feel the potential is there but would have to have a lot to come together to get a blockbuster - at least on the northern fringe of the potential track and with this particular system (many more on the horizon after this). Can’t really make a solid call on anything yet but my best guess would be I-70 to I-80 should be on the lookout for several inches and I-64 to I-94 could be in play depending on the track. Feel as if it will be more suppressed to the south (as the GFS and EURO have been depicting). Again, at this point - anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: We saw several 1-1.5" events in November but since then just a few dustings. Im sure you went over a half inch in Nov a few times vut i get what youre saying. Standards far lower than usual this winter! Those several 1-1.5" snow events favored areas to the east and north of my backyard, I distinctly remember seeing that on radar. There was one event where we got an inch, sure, but fussing over a half inch just really hits home how bad this winter has been locally, lol. EDIT: Meant for my original post to say much more than half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Great look. I'm doing long term part of forecast next 2 days at LOT. Should be fun. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Stout LE signal on there too for a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Here's the IL zoom map for the 00z UKMET qpf.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 is taking forever tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 further North and stronger than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Here's the IL zoom map for the 00z UKMET qpf. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Shades of GHD 2011 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Here's the IL zoom map for the 00z UKMET qpf. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Looking at the last precip panel at 144 hours, it looks like the storm is still going around Chicago and probably even west of there too. My gosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive. Main wave goes negative tilt and closes off at h5, resulting in STL to IND surface low track. Great example of the caution needed for this scenario this far out and that pretty much all options still on the table. Also a great example of the ceiling of this setup if everything comes together right, though that surface low track would not be good the farther south and east you get.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I would like to donate a pint of blood to have the ukmet verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive I was just going to post that. The UK doesn't appear to have that PV lobe crashing southeast through the lakes on Saturday. Iowa needs that lobe to back off as much as possible. Otherwise, that nice energy moving in from the plains is going to dive southeast and leave us with only modest snow from an initial lobe of energy that shoots out of NE/SD. Tonight's UK actually has that initial lobe of snow passing through southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would like to donate a pint of blood to have the ukmet verify. I'd do more than that lol. That is all-timer potential around here with it still ongoing beyond 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd do more than that lol. That is all-timer potential around here with it still ongoing beyond 144. Always gotta have one model run that makes us think of 1978 beating dreams lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS FV3 still north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.