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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

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1000 mb surface low at present in sw OK with pressure falls ne to Cape Girardeau MO per SPC mesoscale.  Is this thing coming farther north than expected?  I originally saw a PAH to EVV track.   And SPC still has a slight risk of svr down south for tomorrow....more than today's marginal risk.  Am concerned like Jack on how this might affect the system moisture wise particularly with deformation snows.

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6 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

1000 mb surface low at present in sw OK with pressure falls ne to Cape Girardeau MO per SPC mesoscale.  Is this thing coming farther north than expected?  I originally saw a PAH to EVV track.   And SPC still has a slight risk of svr down south for tomorrow....more than today's marginal risk.  Am concerned like Jack on how this might affect the system moisture wise particularly with deformation snows.

That isobar orientation looks in line with short-range guidance. You would think that's where she's headed, but most models show it taking a number of jogs eastward as it tries to gain latitude.

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6 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

Lol after a week of tracking this and it looking pretty good for the most part all week to just end end up with barely advisor level snow, believe me I'll be right there with you.

Not sure how it'll play out, but this has looked like a high end advisory/low end warning type snow since about 12Z Tuesday. And at zero hr it still may surpass that, or not. Welcome to following winter storms.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

RAP/HRRR/NAM all in lock step for 6-10" along and north of I-88 in N. Illinois, with the highest toals in a narrow gradient from the Quad Cities to just north of ORD.

Thanks for the updates and model analysis. I appreciate it.

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National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
814 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.UPDATE...
814 PM CST

For Evening Update...

No significant changes to character of going forecast this
evening. Did make some slight mods to depict a somewhat slower
start to snow in some areas, especially south/southeast parts of
the forecast area. Overall however, no changes to general snow
amounts or headline configuration were made, though actual snow
amounts may shade toward the lower end of forecast ranges for most
of the area.

Initial band of moderate snow developed from southeast
MN/northern IA into far northern IL this afternoon, slightly north
of what guidance had depicted 24 hours ago. This has limited
accumulating snow mainly to the northern tier of IL counties along
the WI border through early evening, while keeping things
relatively precipitation free across much of the cwa. Regional
radar mosaic does depict snow beginning to increase in coverage
from eastern IA into northwest IL as of 8 pm however, and high-res
guidance indicates this trend will continue across much of
northern IL along/north of the I-80 corridor over the next couple
of hours as low and mid-level frontogenetic forcing develops and
strengthens. Have adjusted hourly pop/wx grids accordingly and
lowered QPF a bit in spots where snow hasn`t occurred yet, though
with little overall change to expected snow amounts as the height
of the storm is still to come overnight and Saturday morning. By
the time snow tapers off Saturday morning and early afternoon,
amounts still look to range from 5-8" along and north of the I-88
corridor across northern IL, to 3-7" south and southeast of I-88.
Surface pressure falls of 1-2 mb per 3 hours across the
Mississippi are indicative of a tightening of the surface pressure
gradient, with northeast winds beginning to gust into the 20-25
mph range at times in some spots. Winds will continue to ramp up
late tonight and Saturday, leading to blowing and drifting as snow
accumulates.

With storm just getting underway, no other sig changes made
outside of aforementioned tweaks.

Ratzer
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