Maneee Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: The 22z RAP is not quite as punishing, but has a similar look. Someone over Northern Cook/Lake county will do very well with this system + lake effect Seeing as I live on the border of those two counties I am very hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: You'll be surprised then at least. I sure hope so.. my eyes just don't see it happening. No scientific data or reason to back that up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That area of returns over NE IA is not moving much. Bet there are some sweet rates in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Actually getting some very light snow in Minneapolis, but no accumulation. Friend in the south metro said close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 its has been in the model data all along and still there in the 23z HRRR, as soon as precipitation blossoms over southern IL area it kills the precipitation further north, hence the screw hole as the southern part takes over LOL at IKK on 23z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 RAP has been coming in wetter for some areas, with nice snows likely across a good portion of MDX-DVN-LOT CWA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This is above my own head so quasi-educated guessing but I know southern convection has been somewhat of a a concern and is not well modeled sometimes (I think it really messes with the NAM/GFS) as to robbing moisture. It seems to me that with a more W-E progression of this system as opposed to a sharper cutter the convection should lag behind the moisture plume feeding this system. Some of the models have shown a quick "drying out" on a few runs on the backside of this system So I'm curious if below could be the reason some of the wrap around moisture gets cut off..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: RAP has been coming in wetter for some areas, with nice snows likely across a good portion of MDX-DVN-LOT CWA... Move that bottom edge in N Illinois north about 50 miles and id buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 KIND's Aviation discussion describes the challenges for their forecast quite well.. The challenges begin when it comes to the degree of warming aloft with the system and ultimately the impacts that will have on precip type...especially Saturday morning. There continues to be a zone where mixed precipitation looks likely near and just south of I-70. Model soundings though bear out the challenges in precip type as temperatures near freezing exist between 2500 and 4500 ft for several hours near and after daybreak Saturday. Any fluctuation of a few tenths of a degree either way could be the difference between mainly snow and a mixture of snow...freezing rain...sleet or even rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Holding on to decent snows for now. RAP/HRRR now closer to the high end of 4-6”. Can only hope. 3/4 SM vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Winter Storm Warnings now for the entire IWX and CLE County Warning Areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nice coating and coming down at a decent clip northeast of South Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Still no snow here. Kind of surprised, thought it would be snowing by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Cleveland going for six to nine inches in the Findlay area by Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 100X time lapse from my balcony, 3:10-4:40 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Steady light snow beginning here in the QC now. Should be rocking by 9pm thru 2am around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Cleveland going for six to nine inches in the Findlay area by Sunday morning. I’d say that’s fair for the entire area. Pretty much wherever that band sets up gets 9-10” and some serious rippage. Regardless the open space of NW Ohio is going to lead to blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, ams30721us said: Steady light snow beginning here in the QC now. Should be rocking by 9pm thru 2am around here! Yeah it just started here as well. Feels like we've been tracking this thing forever lol. Nice to see it is finally here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knifeparty Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Light snow from earlier stopped been dry for the past 2 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Current Radar for Midwest/Plains. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Here's a better look without all the aiport codes. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 LOT aviation discussion: " The intial band of snow expected late this afternoon and evening shifted north"..sorry this is why I get frustrated. LOT has done a fine job laying out a complicated forecast and than a guy comes in and it's like he's completely out of touch. Even the late afternoon AFD lays out perfectly how things should develop. Worse, anybody remotely tuned in knew the initial frontal band would be displace north of the state line. Did this guy not get the memo? I'm going to roll this back a bit as it could be a met coming on commenting on what he thought would transpire 24 hrs ago. Obviously, weather is ever changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, knifeparty said: Light snow from earlier stopped been dry for the past 2 hours.... as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 KDSM 190054Z 03013KT 1/2SM R31/4500VP6000FT -SN BR VV007 M06/M07 A3001 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP175 SNINCR 1/6 P0006 T10561067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just me or does ridging not looking as strong over eastern Canada at the moment as some models had? Most had the 1032 line stretching out pretty far east by 0Z tonight, but it is roughly a couple hundred miles or so to the west right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 00z HRRR has the precip minimum right through here. Hopefully some of the banding can play out a bit differently and it's not quite so bad, but other models are singing a similar tune so this is not out of the realm of possibility by any stretch. Wouldn't be surprised to only get a few inches from the system snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRRR has the precip minimum right through here. Hopefully some of the banding can play out a bit differently and it's not quite so bad, but other models are singing a similar tune so this is not out of the realm of possibility by any stretch. Wouldn't be surprised to only get a few inches from the system snow. I live not that far from you. If this ends up being the case hopefully the lake effect tomorrow night makes up for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRRR has the precip minimum right through here. Hopefully some of the banding can play out a bit differently and it's not quite so bad, but other models are singing a similar tune so this is not out of the realm of possibility by any stretch. Wouldn't be surprised to only get a few inches from the system snow. And the other night you were the jackpot. What a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The HRRR has decent snowfall amounts for lower Michigan. I'm surprised NWS Grand Rapids and Detroit are sticking with advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looking like I might be lucky if I see 2" in Toronto. Huge disappointment. It looks like this will be a New York State and New Brunswick special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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