Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

[cyclone77]

The new snows in southern IA starting to do work.  Lamoni is down to 1/2 mile.  

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

The new snows in southern IA starting to do work.  Lamoni is down to 1/2 mile.  

You're golden for another 6"+ event.

[Hoosier]

Nice afd by LOT.  The tl;dr version:  things basically on track, could be a significant chunk of the cwa that comes in less than 6", and still plenty of uncertainty with the LES but potential for 6+ if it stalls.

[zinski1990]

47 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I honestly don't know what to expect here.  2-14?  lol

same here. It's like us in central Indiana have no idea what's coming

[Jackstraw]

Just now, zinski1990 said:

same here. It's like us in central Indiana have no idea what's coming

KIND's afternoon AFD reflects that uncertainty.  A 1 degree flux in temp either way, especially along I70, could men the difference between 3 inches and 6 inches or more  Really riding the line.

[Jackstraw]

1 minute ago, Angrysummons said:

I forecast 2-12 inches for west central ohio. What happens happens...............

You went conservative, I big dogged it at 2-14 lmao.

[AppsRunner]

Starting off the storm with... graupel 

[UMB WX]

Starting to ramp it up some.  Nice coating down

[hlcater]

It's been a long time since I've seen this. 

[Baum]

Just now, hlcater said:

It's been a long time since I've seen this. 

november 25

[CoalCityWxMan]

21z RAP looks good for N IL, the HRRR is showing an upward trend as well in recent runs. 

[hlcater]

Just now, Baum said:

november 25

That event wasn't nearly as widespread with the warnings. Infinitely more impressive in the areas that it did hit however.

[Moosey2323]

That 21z RAP shows a pretty great hit for Southern Michigan but both NWS Grand Rapids and Detroit haven't issued any warnings. Those snowfall totals are more impressive than some of the other counties that did get warnings.

[cyclone77]

7 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

21z RAP looks good for N IL, the HRRR is showing an upward trend as well in recent runs. 

Geez, if that's correct my forecast would definitely bust lol.  Think the kuchera ratios are too high though based on the forecast soundings.  Would still be 7-8" for the QCA.

[Jrad08]

Threw in the towel 24hrs ago to maybe an inch call only to have current models such as GFS, Euro, RAP and more showing a 6-12+ event for SW Ohio... feel bad for the ILN office and local Mets

[ILSNOW]

LOT Aviation

 

have made some slight timing adjustments to the going forecast,
but in general, there is little change to the general scenario.
Latest radar imagery indicates some weak echo overspreading nwrn
IL, but this is elevated and any falling snow is evaporating
before hitting the ground since low levels are initially
relatively dry. Expect that snowfall rates should ramp up quickly
by arnd 01-02z. The period of heaviest snow should be durg the
late evening hours and continue overnight. Have gone with a
prevailing 1/2sm as snowfall rates and wind speeds increase. There
will likely be periods with rates of 1 inch per hour and short
periods with rates of 2-3 inches per hour with vis of 1/4sm or
less should any heavier small scale banding develop and mover over
the terminals. Given low confidence in timing, location and
residence time of any narrow banding, have not included in the
TAFs at this time, but these lower conditions remain a
possibility. As the more significant snowfall begins, also expect
that cigs should lower rapidly to ifr or lifr levels. Liquid to
snow ratios should start out near climatologically normal levels
and snow type with not be particularly wet or dry, but as colder
air moves into the region by early tomorrow morning, liquid to
snow ratios will increase and the potential for blowing and
drifting snow will become a concern. So, while snowfall rates are
expected to diminish by arnd daybreak, visibility should remain in
ifr levels due to blowing snow more so than falling snow.

[cyclone77]

Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile.  Very impressive.  Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD.  Madison SD with 14".  Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing.
 

[Baum]

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile.  Very impressive.  Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD.  Madison SD with 14".  Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing.
 

that's quite the change from earlier reports

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile.  Very impressive.  Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD.  Madison SD with 14".  Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing.
 

ASOS auto detects a vis of 1/4 then the next value is M1/4 so the 1/8 is a man supplied entry there. Also a better chance of being more accurate as well. In other words it is going to pound town.

[ConvectiveIA]

It’s absolutely ripping here. I havnt seen it snow this heavily in a few years!

[toddrix1977]

LOT is still being very aggressive with their storm totals near the lake. This includes lake effect.

 

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, toddrix1977 said:

LOT is still being very aggressive with their storm totals near the lake. This includes lake effect.

 

If the 22z HRRR is right the cut off is going to be extreme in Cook county 

[CoalCityWxMan]

Just now, mimillman said:

If the 22z HRRR is right the cut off is going to be extreme in Cook county 

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

[sbnwx85]

Had some flakes earlier. Hoping the fgen band comes far enough south to make me happy. Won't have any issues with dry air at the onset, at least.

[ILSNOW]

7 minutes ago, toddrix1977 said:

LOT is still being very aggressive with their storm totals near the lake. This includes lake effect.

 

Would love to see happen but don’t see it

[toddrix1977]

1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

Since we really don't know how the lake bands will set up, there is a chance that S. Cook could do ok. I never trust where a model says lake effect will set up. I'm in the N. side of Chicago, so I'm feeling pretty good about this setup right now. Fingers crossed.

 

 

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

Consistent with the forecast. And a 3" -8" difference in a county the size of Cook is not extreme. Model also seems to be playing catch up.

[ChiTownSnow]

6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Would love to see happen but don’t see it

Agreed.. I'm throwing in the towel for first round just soley based on current radar returns.. hoping for the best on the LE

[mimillman]

10 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

The 22z RAP is not quite as punishing, but has a similar look.

Someone over Northern Cook/Lake county will do very well with this system + lake effect

[Chicago Storm]

8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Would love to see happen but don’t see it

 

Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

Agreed.. I'm throwing in the towel for first round just soley based on current radar returns.. hoping for the best on the LE

You'll be surprised then at least.