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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

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9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

image.png.9735dca9663ff983b32a05aa001e0c90.png

Why are there 3 counties south of Lima that are in between 2 areas of Warnings ? Makes no sense. Don't offices need to coordinate with each other ?

ILN just now included Auglaize Hardin and Mercer in the Winter Storm Warning. 5-8" expected along with 35 MPH gusts.

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Lake plume off of Lake Michigan is a thing of beauty on the VV progs.  With all the favorable factors (including potential mesolow(s)) other than the mediocre inversion heights, we might max out the snow rates for what is possible in a Lake Michigan plume with only 5000-6000 ft inversion.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Lake plume off of Lake Michigan is a thing of beauty on the VV progs.  With all the favorable factors (including potential mesolow(s)) other than the mediocre inversion heights, we might max out the snow rates for what is possible in a Lake Michigan plume with only 5000-6000 ft inversion.

Those lake effect mesos are a thing of beauty.

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19 minutes ago, afterimage said:

Agreed, I am down the east of you on S.R. 28..... certainly appears the east part of the state could be in a good spot.

Hey! Glad to see that you're still around. You look to be in line for a little more than us up here in Huntington. Let me know how it ends for you. I know Jack will :)

 

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3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Hey! Glad to see that you're still around. You look to be in line for a little more than us up here in Huntington. Let me know how it ends for you. I know Jack will :)

 

I know how to use my measuring board properly now!  Probably won't do much good with the wind, I'll just slant stick into the easterlies lol.

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I’m going with around 8” for the Toledo metro area, 6-9” expected. The combination of fgen and the powdery nature of the snow is going to lead to higher totals than the 4-7” they’re calling for. We almost always see this in the Great Lakes, strong pressure gradient puts down better than expected numbers

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9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Hey! Glad to see that you're still around. You look to be in line for a little more than us up here in Huntington. Let me know how it ends for you. I know Jack will :)

 

Hey, thanks.  Yep, haven't posted in a while, but am here.  I am hopeful for tomorrow.  As much as we have lost power here at our house in the past 6 months, 4-5 times, I am leery, so have been out getting the generator going lol.  I will post total(s) but as Jack said wind will be an issue.

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RGEM came in a bump south. Also had to initialize the low a bit southwest of it's forecast point for 18z. Wouldn't be surprised to see the good 12z runs flip to less favorable 18z and 00z runs again. Can't buy any consistency with this storm. Wish everyone on here good luck.

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Snow will be rapidly developing this afternoon in eastern Iowa, and
by the start of tonight, 6 PM, it should be moving into counties
near the Mississippi River. By mid evening, it should be falling
over the entire area, and possibly beginning to wane in the
northwest. Tonight should see a period of at least 6 hours of
moderate to heavy snow, followed by another 2 to 5 hours of light
snow. Within this snow event, mesoscale bands are expected, and will
lean on the mesocale models do place these, combined with looking at
regional radar for the exact placement. We expect a widespread 6-8
inch snow over the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA, and 4-6 in the
southeast. Within that, there is a potential for narrow swaths with
heavy snow possibly yielding 2+ per hour rates for a time late this
evening, resulting in amounts over 10. Since the impact is similar
for anyone getting over 5 inches with this storm, and I`m very
hesitant to directly forecast the max amounts in the forecast since
that could easily be off by 10 to 20 miles with this event.

Multiple days of freezing drizzle has resulted in "Teflon Snow"
outside. Ok, that`s not an official term, but that thin smooth crust
should really allow the fluffy snow to drift ideally.  Thus, by mid
evening, all areas should be seeing winter storm conditions in snow
and drifting snow/blowing snow. That will continue to get worse
overnight as the system moves to our east, and strong cold advection
increases. I could see this close to blizzard criteria in some open
areas between Midnight and 8 AM Saturday, but winds are forecast to
fall short of the 35 mph criteria.   Once again, you won`t need the
max snow to fall in your county to experience what should be a
classic winter storm condition overnight.

Saturday, winds will very slowly decrease, maintaining significant
drifting snow, despite accumulating snow moving out before 10 AM.
Temperatures will fall through the day, from the mid to upper 20s
southeast to holding in the teens northwest.  Wind chills will
remain -10 to zero northwest to zero to +10 southeast through the
day.

Someone at DVN is pretty hyped. 

hypetrain.jpg

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