DaveNay Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, RyanDe680 said: I am eager for this to be over, to see what we've learned from this. Don't count your chickens before they hatch? There'll be time enough for counting....when the dealin's done? Never trust a fart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I feel for all the meteorologists having to forecast this. It’s times like these the storm gets overhyped 5 days out, social media catches wind, and spreads it like wildfire. Then when the storm under performs, the mets don’t know what they’re talking about. I have have a damn migraine from this thing, literally. Almost just want this storm to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Don't count your chickens before they hatch? There'll be time enough for counting....when the dealin's done? Never trust a fart? Well I never said it was going to suck, but I want to see what pans out with the fgen band and the system moisture - try to determine out of curiosity which model was more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looking at HRRR/3km NAM soundings are showing around 100mb of DGZ depth for east Iowa and west IL around 04z tonight. That's not particularly deep. Not sure why local offices are forecasting up to 18:1 LSRs. Even in the northern DVN cwa the DGZ is still only around 100mb. There is decent lift in that zone, but not sure that is deep enough to make a substantial difference. This could be a situation where outside of the enhanced bands the LSRs are pretty paltry, but underneath the LSRs could be substantially better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 HRRR looks to be a touch north with the FGEN placement at initialization. Probably noise, but makes a difference for those in extreme N IL riding the edge of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: HRRR looks to be a touch north with the FGEN placement at initialization. Probably noise, but makes a difference for those in extreme N IL riding the edge of the line RAP too. I’ve noticed both the hrrr/RAP are bringing higher amounts further east into IL in recent runs Edit: If anything, maybe it means the area just south of the band right now will fill in sooner than it’s showing later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy46237 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Onset near/before dawn. Conditions going downhill later Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Good to know, as I was expecting it to be later in the day. Could be a game changer all the way around. I'll be paying close attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 P&C forecast up from the 6-14 inch range this morning to 8-16 inches. I’m not buying into that. I’ll hope for a 6 inch snowfall & anything else will/would be gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Precip starting to break out in northwest MO. South-central IA should be rocking nicely in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: HRRR looks to be a touch north with the FGEN placement at initialization. Probably noise, but makes a difference for those in extreme N IL riding the edge of the line This. HRRR shows moderate snow in Minneapolis at intializtion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: This. HRRR shows moderate snow in Minneapolis at intializtion. Yep the HRRR has been awful for the metro today. Haven’t seen more then a stray flake or two so far and I work outside. Was never really expecting anything from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 First flakes. -SN here in Hoffman Estates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ILX calling for wind gusts to 40mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 IWX just issued Winter Storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, BeastFromTheEast said: First flakes. -SN here in Hoffman Estates same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: IWX just issued Winter Storm Warnings. As did IND. 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Although the really high end totals may not happen near the lake in northeast IL, there's no reason to back off on the idea of double digit amounts there, storm + LES. I could see like 10-14" combined total there, as long as the LES doesn't pull a fast one (literally, by moving out too quickly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: ILX calling for wind gusts to 40mph now Where did you see that? My grids still showing in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Where did you see that? My grids still showing in the 30's its in the updated winter storm warning as of 11:45am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Although the really high end totals may not happen near the lake in northeast IL, there's no reason to back off on the idea of double digit amounts there, storm + LES. I could see like 10-14" combined total there, as long as the LES doesn't pull a fast one (literally, by moving out too quickly). Skillings futurecast is looking decent https://wgntv.com/weather/maps-and-radar/interactive-radar/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Newest NAM (18z) has the QC getting 9" of snow. Has my backyard almost 6". Going to be close here for significant snow I think. Might head up to the quad cities later this evening to document it. Should start seeing the first flakes here within a few hours I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Where did you see that? My grids still showing in the 30's Its in the Winter storm Warning text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, miller.b.time said: As did IND. 4-7". The Winter Storm Warning for Indy says 3-5". Is 3-5" enough for a Warning Criteria ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Des Moines may be in for a really good 6-12 hour period this afternoon. HRRR repeatedly showing 6-12” of snow there and areas south/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: The Winter Storm Warning for Indy says 3-5". Is 3-5" enough for a Warning Criteria ? Normally, no. Multiple offices have said that they are factoring in the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: The Winter Storm Warning for Indy says 3-5". Is 3-5" enough for a Warning Criteria ? Apologies. Yes, it's 4-7" north of Marion Co. I'm assuming that they are factoring wind into the warning? Or the .1" of ice plus wind? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: The Winter Storm Warning for Indy says 3-5". Is 3-5" enough for a Warning Criteria ? With the ice potential and 40mph wind gusts yeah probably There's still a lot of uncertainty on the snow totals right along I70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Jackstraw said: With the ice potential and 40mph wind gusts yeah probably There's still a lot of uncertainty on the snow totals right along I70. I'm going with 3-6" for my area near the OH border. Have a feeling I will get more ice than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 hours ago, AppsRunner said: There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal. So maybe this will turn about better than originally thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Friend text me to let me know flakes are falling in Lakeview, a neighborhood of Chicago along the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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