fluoronium Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, n1vek said: I would love to see that map extended to the east another 500 miles. Here you go! From https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: No one has really talked ratios. I would think that based on temps, moisture, etc., 10 to 1 seems good? i would expect a bit better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GFS staying south of the OH River. Big hit for a lot of the I-70 corridor region in IN/OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pretty vanilla run. Shame nobody gets a double dip in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It appears that Gulf moisture and 850 temp convergence is not getting far enough North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still liking 6-7" from around Lamoni IA up through Cedar Rapids and up to Dubuque. As expected the models shifted the heavier northeast/southwest oriented axis of heaviest snow northwestward to match more of what last night's Euro showed. 3-5" still looks good for here/QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said: It looks like the fgen band may be a little further south than its being depicted by the hrrr/rap. Not sure if it’ll make a difference or not (probably won’t) but something to look at I have given up. Nowcast and hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, whoosh said: Will see if FGEN band stays north or hits our area as depicted earlier. You can usually find some short range model on a particular run that disagrees with prevailing thought. Funny at longer range posters tend to find the model scenarios that optimize snow possibilities whereas at short range the globals plus short range models give us a lot more looks to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The 12z Canadian came back further north too. So Did the GFS-FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like there could be an area of 7-10" in south-central IA from near Osceola to a little west of Ottumwa. That area is having a hell of a winter, as they cashed in with some of the heaviest amounts from both the Nov 25th and last weekend's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Im lost, is NW Ohio getting bombed or whiffed to the South? Very confused by all the data. Seems like a nowcast is going to be what we have now. Also looking at the radar is this storm speeding up and getting here earlier and leaving faster? I plow snow for the City and Im just curious. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 That fronto band is cranking pretty nicely this morning. Numerous reports of 1/4 mile vis from northern IA back into South Dakota. 1/8 mile in Forest City IA atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ILN just issued Winter Storm Warnings for essentially the Muncie-Columbus (EDIT: not Muncie specifically, but Wayne County to the east) corridor, which *seems* like the most certain area to get big snow totals despite all the variations in models this AM. Winter Storm Watches remain elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FWIW, looking at 16 UTC SPC mesoanalysis, the surface low is actually a bit stronger compared to most models. Seems lock step with the 12z RGEM in placement, but actual low is stronger. Again note that the low placement isn't everything here. It's just a factor that can certainly help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Got a 1/2 inch of snow last night, not sure what to expect tomorrow but hoping the FGen band overperforms. Either way bring on the powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That fronto band is cranking pretty nicely this morning. Numerous reports of 1/4 mile vis from northern IA back into South Dakota. 1/8 mile in Forest City IA atm. Temps in the teens too. Probably rocking 20:1+ ratios in that band from Forest City, IA thru Worthington, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 LOT update: .UPDATE... 1038 AM CST In summary, no significant changes to the message for this event this morning. One element we did alter was the mid-late afternoon snow potential, confining the highest likelihood of commute impacts to I-90 and north. Will have more in the afternoon discussion overall, but will briefly describe some observational trends tied to onset time and evolution into the evening. The well-defined northern stream mid- level wave across southeast South Dakota has been mainly moving due east, a little further north than guidance indicated last night. This will start to trend more east-southeast as a gradual phasing with the southern stream low begins to occur. The active baroclinic zone draped from the Minnesota/Iowa border region into southwest Wisconsin this morning is gradually filling in with snow, some heavy. As this has filled in it has slowed its northern progress. Extrapolating its current development would bring it into the northern CWA this afternoon, and more so the far northern CWA (I-90 and north) as it becomes robust around sunset. High- resolution guidance generally supports this. There may be a period mid-afternoon where further south of that does still see snow, but the stronger frontogenesis (f-gen) and vertical circulation for appreciable snow looks to be more focused in the far north. As broader synoptic forcing overspreads the region this evening, snow should spread from west to east across the area. F-gen signatures become somewhat transient, but there remains indications of that as the systems gradually phase in the broad northern precipitation shield over the area. General snowfall forecast amounts still look good. Some parts of the I-88 corridor have been lowered just slightly because of the aforementioned mid-late afternoon expectations. While could justify backing up the start time of some of the warning counties along I-88 that begin at 3 pm, the northern parts of these counties, including Cook, could certainly still get into the f-gen driven more moderate snow. So have left as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, geddyweather said: ILN just issued Winter Storm Warnings for essentially the Muncie-Columbus corridor, which *seems* like the most certain area to get big snow totals despite all the variations in models this AM. Winter Storm Watches remain elsewhere. Muncie is not under a warning and they are not in the ILN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Got a 1/2 inch of snow last night, not sure what to expect tomorrow but hoping the FGen band overperforms. Either way bring on the powder! Don't leave that magnet on too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 CLE just issued Winter Storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Muncie is not under a warning and they are not in the ILN area. Apologies, bad wording on my part. Was referring to Wayne County in IN where ILN's area starts to jut out into IN a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 KIND has been slow to pull the trigger this whole event. They have real (and justified) concerns on the warm nose affecting totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GFS-FV3 now has 994 mb low pressure in Southern Ohio Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Starting to think a Lake Effect Snow Watch (or at least advisory) should be issued for Lake and Cook counties. Many people I’ve spoken to are completely unaware of any precipitation on Saturday night after the synoptic snows and will be caught completely off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: 12z GFS-FV3 now has 994 mb low pressure in Southern Ohio Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total. It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES. I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. Going to be a nail-biter with LE, as always. Some of the latest mesoscale indications seem to point towards a band that is organized, yet a bit transient in nature. Of course how it reflects will always be up to any hyper localized influencers. For NW Indiana as a whole, I'm thinking 2-4" from the storm with another 2-4" north of 30 for the LE. Lollipop potential north of 80, especially in Lake County. (I.e., I generally agree with your range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like Winter Storm Warnings expanded north a few counties in Wisconsin (Madison area for example)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, michaelmantis said: Looks like Winter Storm Warnings expanded north a few counties in Wisconsin (Madison area for example)... Yep, updated totals up to 5" to 7". still think we may get the higher end of that. Still some dry air at lower levels to overcome, dewpoint of 7 in Madison. Dewpoint of 5 in Prairie Du Chien with heavy virga overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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