Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It should be noted that the RAP/HRRR have been trending north and more organized with the storm for several runs now.However, they have also jumped north with the FGEN band as well, now fully taking it over MN to WI to MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, King James said: Maybe bring it over to the banter thread if you feel like it but I’d love to hear some of your stories regarding storms in these rural areas. Came this way for the big sky and open fields and get the sense that Mother Nature is pretty powerful out this way. The sound of the wind alone is so much different than in the suburbs (grew up near midway) . I can tell you that GHD I & II were absolutely incredible out here in the open farm country of DeKalb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It should be noted that the RAP/HRRR have been trending north and more organized with the storm for several runs now. However, they have also jumped north with the FGEN band as well, now fully taking it over MN to WI to MI. . I’m unsurprised. Think this is a major concern for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: I’m unsurprised. Think this is a major concern for our area Absolutely insane that after good model agreement for day, we diverge as we approach the storm RIGHT UP TO FLAKES FLYING. I guess we will nowcast this sucker, but I still feel good about a 4-6” floor for totals in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM is coming in north, stronger and more organized with the storm. It’s also north with the FGEN band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m unsurprised. Think this is a major concern for our areaI would be highly concerned. What looked like 6-10” across N. IL could end up 2-5”...plus LES from prone areas. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 SREF also shifted north with the heaviest FGEN snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nice discussion from MKX this morning. Quote .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 456 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019) SHORT TERM... Today Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium. We haven`t seen significant changes to model precip amounts with the last couple of runs. If anything, amounts went up near the WI/IL border and lake enhanced snow may affect Sheboygan county a little longer than previously anticipated. We rolled the Winter Storm Watch areas into a Warning with the exception of Ozaukee County, then added Sheboygan and Ozaukee as Advisories. The other Advisory counties remain unchanged. Our snowfall amounts fall right in the middle of where the models suggest. Looking at the WPC probability graphics on our winter weather page, the forecast snowfall amounts fall in between the 50th and 75th percentiles. We are a little on the higher side of guidance because many models do not handle the lake effect portion very well since it is small scale. Frontogenesis and upper divergence with the right entrance region of the upper jet are the key players for southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois with this event. The average position of the mid level fgen band between the models is actually on the IL side of the border. There is fgen expected around 850mb that should be over southern WI this evening. The meso models are focusing their higher reflectivity over northern IL. So there remains uncertainty about whether or not the warning snowfall amounts will make it into the southern tier of counties in WI. The other key player is the lake enhancement component with a long fetch of northeast winds with a sufficient lake-850mb temp difference. This will add another couple of inches on to the synoptic snow expected, thus highest snowfall amounts are anticipated over eastern Kenosha county and areas into northeast IL. The model soundings show a deep dendritic growth zone over south central WI for the last half of the snow, after midnight tonight into Saturday morning. Then dry air moves in from the northwest quickly to end the snow. There is a chance the snow could over- perform during this time if we get higher snow ratios with the deep DGZ, but went with more conservative amounts for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I would be highly concerned. What looked like 6-10” across N. IL could end up 2-5”. . On the 12z NAM at least still doesn’t look terrible even though main FGEN snows shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This run is actually one of the further north yet, taking the SLP to PAH and EVV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On the 12z NAM at least still doesn’t look terrible even though main FGEN snows shift northThe storm is so far north and more organized that synoptic snow saves the area, to a degree. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3km NAM is very similar to the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2" call for Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3km Nam is giving me hope to see some flakes today. I guess MN gain is IL pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That’s a nice LE signal on the NAM there, very slow to rotate east. Someone in NE IL could see a lucky 6” from the lake effect alone, methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm back in Galesburg for this one, considering heading to either Macomb (where my apartment is) or Davenport/Eldridge (where my mom lives). Synoptic snows look pretty good down here, so I may just stay put. Could see some whiteout conditions, HRRR is advertising winds of 20-25 knots out of the northeast, with higher gusts. Even if we don't see the highest snowfall, I think the wind could be enough to cause issues. Snowfall ratios may be lower down south as well, which could lead to lower totals, but also concrete like snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: That’s a nice LE signal on the NAM there, very slow to rotate east. Someone in NE IL could see a lucky 6” from the lake effect alone, methinks Forecasted 6-10" in these parts seems like we have several ways to get there one way or another. Anybody in line to get FGEN band and the synoptic snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Baum said: Forecasted 6-10" in these parts seems like we have several ways to get there one way or another. Anybody in line to get FGEN band and the synoptic snows? I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included. I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in. Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hard to spread the wealth of a decent snow event any better than this. Gorgeous calm before the storm AM outside today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The NAMs now have Cedar Rapids on the nw edge of the southern band. The heaviest snow may veer more to Cyclone's yard. Any additional veering could drop CR's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included. I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in. Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake. I an going to say that mby into Glen Ellen sees 6-10”. If the FGEN gets shunted way north, in theory that would be due to the fact that the storm is taking a more northerly track, thus giving us synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Hard to spread the wealth of a decent snow event any better than this. Gorgeous calm before the storm AM outside today. Love the positive attitude. I think you’re in a good spot. Fully expecting that band to quickly swing north and set up shop north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Might be hauling in a MSN jackpot on the frontogenesis band. GFS/FV3/NAM/HRRR all showing between 7 and 9 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 May manage 4" here but a lot depends on how far north/west the synoptic bands make it. Not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sorta foreign territory for me with this kind of set up. Normally a favorable cutter would set the fgen snows to my north while waiting for the low to swing up. So I'm still on pins and needles on just where this band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included. I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in. Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake.That would be 6". Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I know I'm being greedy, but I don't like being in the doughnut hole that's showing up on multiple models. Heavier snows in every direction around me. Still though a 5" snow would be nice, but I've been spoiled from the recent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It looks like the fgen band may be a little further south than its being depicted by the hrrr/rap. Not sure if it’ll make a difference or not (probably won’t) but something to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, fluoronium said: I know I'm being greedy, but I don't like being in the doughnut hole that's showing up on multiple models. Heavier snows in every direction around me. Still though a 5" snow would be nice, but I've been spoiled from the recent storm. I would love to see that map extended to the east another 500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 No one has really talked ratios. I would think that based on temps, moisture, etc., 10 to 1 seems good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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