Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well I gotta ride the fv3 24 out, my shrine is built prayer service has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK The central/western Iowa warning area may be in jeopardy. All of this evening's models look like this. The northern band is about the same, but the more positively tilted/quicker system is leading to a more eastward-veering southern band. This storm has produced some of the more bizarre precip maps I can remember seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: This storm has produced some of the more bizarre precip maps I can remember seeing. Was looking at the SPC severe outlooks and they've been a little inconsistent down south too Maybe it has something to do with +/- moisture robbing from convection not being handled well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: Was looking at the SPC severe outlooks and they've been a little inconsistent down south too Maybe it has something to do with +/- moisture robbing from convection not being handled well? Yeah RC brought that up earlier today I believe. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 New Euro looks pretty good for the Cedar Rapids/Dubuque crew. 0.5" precip for those areas, which should fluff up to 6-7". 0.35-0.40" for the QCA/here, which would fluff up to 4-5". Gonna ride my call of 3-5" for here/QC. 6-7" for the CR crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Check out the poll in this thread if you haven't done so yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lot of convection in Alabama in recent hi-res runs. 00z Euro so far looks roughly the same - maybe slightly lower amounts on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro looks pretty good for the Cedar Rapids/Dubuque crew. 0.5" precip for those areas, which should fluff up to 6-7". 0.35-0.40" for the QCA/here, which would fluff up to 4-5". Gonna ride my call of 3-5" for here/QC. 6-7" for the CR crew. You're lucky. You should see a decent event. Every single model has me in the snow void between the two more intense bands. I'm thinking 2-4in more so for Peoria now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 hours ago, mimillman said: Didn’t you literally just get a good storm dude Yeah, 30 hours of painstakingly 8 inch accumulations after 5 years of Nada! lol. We're rightfully greedy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro looks pretty good for the Cedar Rapids/Dubuque crew. 0.5" precip for those areas, which should fluff up to 6-7". 0.35-0.40" for the QCA/here, which would fluff up to 4-5". Gonna ride my call of 3-5" for here/QC. 6-7" for the CR crew. Believe that is one of the wetter models for CR, except for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Believe that is one of the wetter models for CR, except for the NAM. The northeast/southwest oriented precip max shown on the NAMs will likely adjust northwest towards where the Euro shows it IMO on the next few runs. I feel the NAMs are a bit too far southeast with that northeast/southwest oriented precip max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Going to make a call for my location at 5” based on latest guidance and temperatures. May be some over-performing IF convection south doesn’t rob of moisture, but as Hoosier said earlier, these warm air advection snows can certainly overperform and this one is definitely capable of just that. 06z and 12z had less convection in the south (Kentucky south to Mississippi/Alabama) where as 18z and 00z have caught onto more widespread even possibly severe rain/convection from KY points south and east. All options really still on the table. This will likely turn into more of a nowcasting event. Still fun to watch unfold. Sure beats the hell out of nothing! *Edit Expect for a WWA to be hoisted for the I-96 corridor points south this morning... but not holding my breath - GRR/DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total. It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES. I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total. It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES. I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. Pretty solid forecast there IMO. The LE aspect is def a wildcard for the whole shoreline from Chicago into northwest IN. Some areas could definitely score a huge total if they can get in under the main band for any length of time. Pretty much impossible to tell if and where that would happen from this far out. Who knows, maybe Griffin will be ground zero for that. It's definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total. It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES. I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. Think that’s a solid call. Intriguing to say the least for your area with the potential for some good lake effect ontop of synoptic snow. Also with the 30+ mph winds from the NE could see some blizzard conditions to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6z NAM with sig changes. Trough is well organized once again, and SLP is further north with a more organized system. Might just be off hour shenanigans, or maybe not. We'll see at 12z and with other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z NAM with sig changes. Trough is well organized once again, and SLP is further north with a more organized system. Might just be off hour shenanigans, or maybe not. We'll see at 12z and with other runs. It seems like a much more believable run-- at least in terms of ultimate output of snow. 8ish inches seems more in the realm of what this system is capable of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 06Z NAM is further north again too, here we go again. I do not envy the NWS offices right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GRR goes with a small, 3-5 WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 DTX goes with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 IWX holding onto watch, reveals why models might be weird right now Pacific jet streak and attendant shear vort max were only partially sampled at 00Z. Will get a much better sample at 12Z that should provide more clarity and confidence in forecast details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 310 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING... ILZ044>046-053-182200- /O.UPG.KILX.WS.A.0002.190119T0000Z-190120T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KILX.WS.W.0002.190119T0600Z-190120T0600Z/ Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon- Including the cities of Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, and Decatur 310 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snowfall expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Piatt, Champaign, Vermilion and Macon Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Thinking 4-6” for my area. It really looks like we’re going to be south of a good chunk of the action in Chicago tonight. For LES it always seems like with the NE IL setups we get a brief hit as the band whips its way east rather than dumped under a fire hose that doesn’t move. Hopefully I’m wrong but setting low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 MKX gives the southern tier (Lafayette, Green and Rock counties) a Winter Storm Warning for 4-7 inches of snow. Madison remains w/ a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I hate to "bash", but at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, talk about a forecasting nightmare. Most of local news METs have gone with significantly lower total across NW Ohio. FV3 is the only in our favor for 12ish inches. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I hate to "bash", but at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. Maybe bring it over to the banter thread if you feel like it but I’d love to hear some of your stories regarding storms in these rural areas. Came this way for the big sky and open fields and get the sense that Mother Nature is pretty powerful out this way. The sound of the wind alone is so much different than in the suburbs (grew up near midway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I hate to "bash", but at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. My guess is they might have been forced into it, due to having to collaborate with DVN/ILX/IND.I know Ricky was mentioning last night that if they go warning, it might only be for advisory amounts...and that’s pretty much what they did, going with 3-7”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m betting on 3 inches in DSM/AMES Storm is a day late and a dollar short for the hefty amounts forecast yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GRR goes with a small, 3-5 WWA 3-5" lines up with what I've been thinking and seeing for GRR. Euro was a beautiful 6" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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