Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: I'm getting the same vibes I got last night as the 0Z suite rolled in. I"m sensing a pattern here. Best cure for the is a strong Double IPA(NOT a Computer model for those of you wandering) and Bed. See you Weenies in the morning. smartest guy in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 You knew where that was going early. O well nice mood event for a lot still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ohio just went from 12-18 inches to 5-6 inches in that NAM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 3km NAM is likely correctly depicting the right gradient with the FGEN band, though totals are still question for now... . For northern IL: NAM- 6-9” 3km NAM- 9-14” (lol) 36 hr hrrr- 2-4” Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Attention members: please read this thread https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51946-splitting-up-storm-threads-yea-or-nay/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sub forums will be hopping after that NAM run. JI back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Sub forums will be hopping after that NAM run. JI back in the game so glad were not part of that east coast/mid Atlantic clown show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 cyclone closing in on his 3rd 6"+ storm of the winter. And another one possibly coming next week? Whatever he's doing, he's doing it right. Pretty amazing. Low confidence call of 2-4" for MBY. Much more confident on the 2 than the 4. Hopefully don't have to downgrade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Sub forums will be hopping after that NAM run. JI back in the game He can stay in his subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lake band mostly stays out of Indiana on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I was never in for a double scoop in this storm. I just wanted a single scooper in to the fgen snows decently. NAM doesn't even offer a double scoop on the menu. I'd of liked to seen what that NAM run would have looked like if all things connected together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 A lot weaker vorticity on the maps and a flatter ejection doomed this from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM crashed weenies dreams and tried to crash the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The reality always is folks want to trust the solutions they want and discount the solutions they don't. Always been that way. Will still be a decent winter event just won't be similar to that early February storm from several years back. And, I never expected that. Perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well if nothing else, I think we can more confidently weight things toward the wetter models in the fgen band. There hasn't really been a significant backing off with that and they should handle it better. Question is exactly where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GGR looking money so far tonight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Well if nothing else, I think we can more confidently weight things toward the wetter models in the fgen band. There hasn't really been a significant backing off with that and they should handle it better. Question is exactly where it sets up. NAM centers it around the I-88 corridor while the hrrr/rap has it further north. Would hate to be LOT tonight, tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: NAM centers it around the I-88 corridor while the hrrr/rap has it further north. Would hate to be LOT tonight, tough call. no changes....easy new afd states this. Perhaps a 1/2 county shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Well if nothing else, I think we can more confidently weight things toward the wetter models in the fgen band. There hasn't really been a significant backing off with that and they should handle it better. Question is exactly where it sets up. Definitely not as far north as id like. I like the NAMs snow map. I won't be shocked to see it move south more even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Too much HRRR/RAP love. Those models are crap in their long range. Goal posts for the big snows is between I-80 and the first two rows of southern WI. Seems these set ups like to inch north at game time, but not always. I’d feel pretty good if I was sitting in and around the E/W Tollway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baum said: The reality always is folks want to trust the solutions they want and discount the solutions they don't. and worse than that, they refer to individual op runs as as some kind of good/bad/whatever solely from the perspective of their desires. That's not science. Some folks even use the totally uninformative qualifier "sick". Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: NAM centers it around the I-88 corridor while the hrrr/rap has it further north. Would hate to be LOT tonight, tough call. That's IMBY (Hillsdale holla) Sharp cut off in lower Cook County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12" refresher for Cylone in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not everything is going south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Tonight’s runs shall be intriguing with full sampling. Models still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Are you trying to break Buckeye's monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 LOT As indicated above, just getting a quick look at the new 00Z NAM guidance. Fairly similar to previous runs, and continues to highlight areas along/north of the I-88 corridor across far northern IL for the greatest snowfall potential with similar timing going into Friday night. Perhaps a slight (half county) shift southward with the main frontogentically-forced QPF axis Friday evening, though basically little change to current forecast. In collaboration with surrounding offices have made no changes to going headlines at this time. Midnight shift will have full suite of 00Z guidance available for possible upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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