Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Maybe a tick north on the 0z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at allThe HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all I was noticing that. If 0z hrrr is right a lot of locations are going to underperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: The HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR. . You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baum said: ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen. With last weekends system in the long range (so about now) the short-term models were also looking awful. Way underdone on amounts just about everywhere, but that eventually began to slowly improve with every run. Not saying it’ll happen again, but just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, AppsRunner said: You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me. Like bad feeling it will underperform or that models are underestimating its potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me. I needed you to say that 48 hrs ago before you got me invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 30 minutes ago, mimillman said: ORD SREF mean back above 7” So 0.7" precip. Not too shabby at >10:1. Almost every member between 0.5-1" precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: So 0.7" precip. Not too shabby at >10:1. Almost every member between 0.5-1" precip. There is a way to adjust the SREF snowfall ratios if you want to have a little fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 0z NAM is taking a step back. The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 0z NAM is taking a step back. The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south. It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border. . But apparently taking a sharp northeast turn though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border..SFC low is well south, and UL 500mb is just pushing east.Will be a big step back from earlier runs. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border. . How big of an impact? Timing or totals? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM is taking a step back. The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south. That being said, still going to be a very nice run for Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well this was unexpected. Lol. What a forecast nightmare. Sfc low track very noticeably south on 0z runs this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: That being said, still going to be a very nice run for Chicago area. your on the hook for 4" at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That being said, still going to be a very nice run for Chicago area.Up north kicks out with the FGEN snows and the initial push of synoptic snow...but elsewhere will struggle with that solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If this change sticks and continues with other guidance, it will be a big victory for the ECMWF/UKMET.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 How big of an impact? Timing or totals? Or both?Synoptic snow would end earlier on Saturday. However, totals stay the same in our neck of the woods that’s to the FGEN band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3km NAM is further north than the 12km NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah, 3K is in a similar spot to the 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM is taking a step back. The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south. This moreso than anything IMO. 18z run had the SLP just north of the Red River vs south of the Red River but the trough had already been tilted pretty well neutrally for a few hours before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 At hour 27, the 3K looks to be a smidge north, what a mess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Forecasting nightmare. Except for you guys in that fgen band. It's strange though how higher totals are lining up with stronger banding signals on hi res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3km NAM is likely correctly depicting the right gradient with the FGEN band, though totals are still question for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Cant wait for this storm to be over. It's crazy how the short range and hi res models plus nam are inconsistent now closer we get. One of those surprise storms where something not on the models will happen now cast events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm getting the same vibes I got last night as the 0Z suite rolled in. I"m sensing a pattern here. Best cure for the is a strong Double IPA(NOT a Computer model for those of you wandering) and Bed. See you Weenies in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.