Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Can already see some enhancement in WI by the end of the 18z HRRR. Setup only improves after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, whoosh said: However, the 50% probability tops out at 7" unless I'm understanding badly. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Something seems wrong on their site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: Something seems wrong on their site No. The one "Expected" graphic is manually generated. All the others are not; only using multiple model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We were rerunning the expected snow graphic and probs this afternoon and wanted to only include the system snow but we're having issues with it including the LES as well. That's why there's a disconnect with the other probabilistic stuff and 10th and 90th percentiles.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The New England guys are saying the 18z Euro is a hair north for them. Is that the case here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, mimillman said: Something seems wrong on their site This is probably a better link which shows the three different probabilities... https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter#tab-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I'm hesitant for Chicago. I don't like relying on fgen band and/or lake effect. Both may or may not happen and are much less reliable to forecast..Tricky forecast for sure glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The New England guys are saying the 18z Euro is a hair north for them. Is that the case here too? Trough a bit more neutral tilt and wave a bit more north. SLP did end up a bit north. Still on farther south end of guidance through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Trough a bit more neutral tilt and wave a bit more north. SLP did end up a bit north. Still on farther south end of guidance through. Still playing catch up but a positive sign no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 45 minutes ago, whoosh said: However, the 50% probability tops out at 7" unless I'm understanding badly. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Wow!!!! Hope it pans out. I'm just inside the 12-18 zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Toronto4 said: I have a good feeling this one will give us a nice surprise by Sunday morning. Tonight’s 00z model runs with more sampling will tell the tale. I'm hoping for at least 2". I hope your optimism pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can already see some enhancement in WI by the end of the 18z HRRR. Setup only improves after this. This map makes me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said: Wow!!!! Hope it pans out. I'm just inside the 12-18 zone. How fast the band moves through our area is critical. Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday. Excellent lift right through the dendritic growth zone. The low level flow sort of breaks down/weakens with time on Sunday, so I think the band behavior/movement could become increasingly difficult to predict. Still looks like it could bend back west later Sunday into Monday, likely starting to weaken by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m gonna side in the over performer camp. Things seem to becoming together. Check out the soundings around FGEN time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 52 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can already see some enhancement in WI by the end of the 18z HRRR. Setup only improves after this. Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think. I think he's looking at the NE-SW returns coming onshore in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think. The finger pointing southwestward into WI is what I'm referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: How fast the band moves through our area is critical. Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday. Excellent lift right through the dendritic growth zone. The low level flow sort of breaks down/weakens with time on Sunday, so I think the band behavior/movement could become increasingly difficult to predict. Still looks like it could bend back west later Sunday into Monday, likely starting to weaken by then. The lake effect is certainly the deal maker for the higher totals. Typically, you in Griffith will see a few more inches than I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Local news said on their weather report that they asked and the reason the IWX counties of Michigan had a watch and the other's haven't is because "The first tier of counties have a higher risk for more significant accumulations, as well as more blowing and drifting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Local news said on their weather report that they asked and the reason the IWX counties of Michigan had a watch and the other's haven't is because "The first tier of counties have a higher risk for more significant accumulations, as well as more blowing and drifting" Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ORD SREF mean back above 7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Chinook said: As an official snow weenie for Toledo, I am posting this NAM 18z run to commemorate a great model run for Toledo and Cleveland Whoa is that legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said: Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday. and area-wide from the 3k ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 0z NAM coming in currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: Whoa is that legit That's the million dollar question? So many models and everyone's asking which one's legit. If it verifies, then it's legit. That's the best answer you're gonna get, T-town brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal. based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal. Wouldn't be the first time this snow season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Baum said: based on what? HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: 0z NAM coming in currently. Very slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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