UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That was garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Very good AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FV3 appears to show more phasing. Awaiting precip maps to see what it means for the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, Stebo said: I agree with this depiction, it shows the fgen band and the main southern stream storm fairly well. Do you see the fgen band as far south as Champaign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: Do you see the fgen band as far south as Champaign? Extreme N Ill. Southern Wisconsin,Extreme Southern Mich and N. Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: Do you see the fgen band as far south as Champaign? Fgen band is going to be way north. We are depending on deformation band snows. Nearly all models have this screw zone in between the deformation band and fgen band with lower totals. We shall see if that improves in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FWIW(and I honestly think a decent bit) all three of the WRF models (ARW, NSSL and NMMB) are pretty juiced up with the precip in Iowa through the end of their runs. All of which eclipse 6" on a 10:1 map over a fairly large area. The fact that they all generally agree with each other(and the NAM) is worth more to me than any of the individual runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wonder where the fgen band will set up. Wherever it does, those folks will be lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 These fgen bands have really delivered here in the IL/WI border counties during storms the past few years. I wonder if that's just a coincidence, or maybe it has something to do with the lake. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised to see it lift a county or two further north than depicted... seems to often be the case. UMB WX, I'd keep an eye out, those death bands tend to bring the goods and stack the inches quick, especially when colder temps and the dgz are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Fgen band is going to be way north. We are depending on deformation band snows. Nearly all models have this screw zone in between the deformation band and fgen band with lower totals. We shall see if that improves in time Thanks. Haven’t been able to keep up today, busy busy day. Thanks for the update. Things are def trending in a bad direction here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z GEFS are not looking too good. Definitely a push to the south in the mean, and it appears there is quite a bit more spread than at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 54 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Well, I'm on the border of 3-5 and 5-7 per NWS for snow and a .10 to a glaze of ice. Other forecasts are different. Gonna be interesting. Yeah I've been worried about those 850's for a few days now. With a weaker ridge and the surface low amping up on the models the last 5 days it puts Central In/I70 back where we usually are with these things. The nose of that low level jet is right on my doorstep as modeled right now. I69 and points east look better to cash in on any phasing. We're gonna miss out on the bulk of any Fgen snows. Things are still a bit up in the air though. This little Pied Piper wave cut about 3 or 4 inches off the existing snowpack so hopefully we all can get a good 6 inch topper to clean it up. Then we gotta worry about a real potential rainer before the ice box sets in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, amt5626 said: 18z GEFS are not looking too good. Definitely a push to the south in the mean, and it appears there is quite a bit more spread than at 12z. Still a good snowfall either way for NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, tuanis said: These fgen bands have really delivered here in the IL/WI border counties during storms the past few years. I wonder if that's just a coincidence, or maybe it has something to do with the lake. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised to see it lift a county or two further north than depicted... seems to often be the case. UMB WX, I'd keep an eye out, those death bands tend to deliver, especially when colder temps and the dgz are involved. I feel you.. I've seen those bands many of times rot 2 counties north of me when i've felt I was in a decent spot. I'm just spooked of subtle trends SE being the norm that I'm a tough sell on fgen setting up farther north here. That's what I think we need to have a shot of getting round two in to play more for those south. I'm not stoked for tonight's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Jackstraw said: Yeah I've been worried about those 850's for a few days now. With a weaker ridge and the surface low amping up on the models the last 5 days it puts Central In/I70 back where we usually are with these things. The nose of that low level jet is right on my doorstep as modeled right now. I69 and points east look better to cash in on any phasing. We're gonna miss out on the bulk of any Fgen snows. Things are still a bit up in the air though. This little Pied Piper wave cut about 3 or 4 inches off the existing snowpack so hopefully we all can get a good 6 inch topper to clean it up. Then we gotta worry about a real potential rainer before the ice box sets in next week. It's an interesting call for us in Indy area. We really need a big storm bad. Kind of bummed feeling good about this all week for it to turn into this typical I70 game again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: It's an interesting call for us in Indy area. We really need a big storm bad. Kind of bummed feeling good about this all week for it to turn into this typical I70 game again Didn’t you literally just get a good storm dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hasn't really been talked about lately, but to me it looks like blizzard criteria will be approached if not met in some areas. Still looks like a swath of around 40 mph gusts possible. I guess the question is whether things come together long enough with the winds and visibility. Should at least be blizzard-like if it does fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Didn’t you literally just get a good storm dude People in this thread want every storm. Last week was 6 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Plumes for DTW are at 9" with one hilarious run of 25" also some duds around 0-2" They have been going up since this morning though 03z 4" 09z 8" and now 9" on 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Tough forecast for this area. It looks like the initial front band will miss just north, which takes 0.2-0.3" of precip potential away. The heavier precip with the deform snows will slide well south. Looks like we'll be in the middle with sort of a 3-5" type of an event. Looks like a solid advisory event, and a nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Plumes for DTW are at 9" with one hilarious run of 25" also some duds around 0-2" They have been going up since this morning though 03z 4" 09z 8" and now 9" on 15z Yet it's still radio silence from NWS Detroit for any Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: It's an interesting call for us in Indy area. We really need a big storm bad. Kind of bummed feeling good about this all week for it to turn into this typical I70 game again 3 to 5 inches is still a pretty good storm isnt it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Moosey2323 said: Yet it's still radio silence from NWS Detroit for any Winter Storm Watch. I am not in the business of burying NWS offices, though I would be doing this differently. They do have the benefit of this starting about 30 hours from now so they could issue something in the morning with enough awareness, though I would have this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 However, the 50% probability tops out at 7" unless I'm understanding badly. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 As an official snow weenie for Toledo, I am posting this NAM 18z run to commemorate a great model run for Toledo and Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, whoosh said: What???. Where did this come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, whoosh said: your golden. Take the dog for a walk during it's peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: What???. Where did this come from Right from Hoosiers lips....that's with the lake effect totals...be nice to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Right from Hoosiers lips....that's with the lake effect totals...be nice to verify.First winter in eastern Kankakee county for me, interested to see if that lake band sets up and can make it my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm hesitant for Chicago. I don't like relying on fgen band and/or lake effect. Both may or may not happen and are much less reliable to forecast..Tricky forecast for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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