Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On a bright side, we have back-to-back systems to track with next weeks system potentially being a huge one! Euro laid down 10" for me just on Wednesday. Need to get through this one first, but models have definitely been consistent for a couple days now on another big impact storm next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, UMB WX said: Frustrating for sure. This is normally a bread and butter GRR storm. Just can't buy a hooker from the pan handle anymore. This will still end up being a good event too for GRR. We will lose out to our south, but still 3-5" is not bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Aleksey said: This will still end up being a good event too for GRR. We will lose out to our south, but still 3-5" is not bad at all! Totally taking any snowfall I can get. You didn't see any flakes from the last storm did you? Hate to waste a setup like this one but it is what it is and there indeed looks to be enough chances for some snows to keep it interesting to end the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: Totally taking any snowfall I can get. You didn't see any flakes from the last storm did you? Hate to waste a setup like this one but it is what it is and there indeed looks to be enough chances for some snows to keep it interesting to end the month. I saw a few flakes, but that was it. We are so below average year to date it is ridiculous. Our last good accumulating snow was legit in November lol we have legit had under 5" total since the end of November haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Totally taking any snowfall I can get. You didn't see any flakes from the last storm did you? Hate to waste a setup like this one but it is what it is and there indeed looks to be enough chances for some snows to keep it interesting to end the month. How are you guys on the other side of the lake doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Aleksey said: How are you guys on the other side of the lake doing? Same as you.. Almost 7" in November and virtually nothing since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: Same as you.. Almost 7" in November and virtually nothing since. We had 14.4" in November and are currently sitting at 18.7" haha no way we hit our yearly average of 75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Aleksey said: We had 14.4" in November and are currently sitting at 18.7" haha no way we hit our yearly average of 75" Well it will be fun trying to get there. At least now we have cold lurking and you have a nice body of water to your west for some stat padding. GL this weekend. We can still hope to nudge the numbers up a bit but it looks par for the course that another system scoots by south and doesn't realize its potential out our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: Well it will be fun trying to get there. At least now we have cold lurking and you have a nice body of water to your west for some stat padding. GL this weekend. We can still hope to nudge the numbers up a bit but it looks par for the course that another system scoots by south and doesn't realize its potential out our way. I am excited for the next 10 days, a ton of potential and that wednesday system next week looks like it has some serious legs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 LOT AFD updated for those that are interested. Izzi penned it, although it lacks his usual flair. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 For Grand Rapids, I would agree on the 3-5”... however I do believe they forget that there is more than just Grand Rapids they need to account for. Always seems that if it doesn’t interest Kent county as much as Jackson county, they act ho-hum about it. Been like this for years with certain forecasters. If WDM (Bill) was the forecaster for this storm he would go into much detail about it and where he thinks the best snowfall would be. Also, he would’ve most certainly issued a SWS at minimum to cover the potential for heavy snow. I-94 corridor is looking at 4-8” locally if the storm system holds true and trends continue - that is most certainly a significant snowfall and it should be noted. But again, I don’t know why I would expect any different. It’s only public life and property on the line haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: For Grand Rapids, I would agree on the 3-5”... however I do believe they forget that there is more than just Grand Rapids they need to account for. Always seems that if it doesn’t interest Kent county as much as Jackson county, they act ho-hum about it. Been like this for years with certain forecasters. If WDM (Bill) was the forecaster for this storm he would go into much detail about it and where he thinks the best snowfall would be. Also, he would’ve most certainly issued a SWS at minimum to cover the potential for heavy snow. I-94 corridor is looking at 4-8” locally if the storm system holds true and trends continue - that is most certainly a significant snowfall and it should be noted. But again, I don’t know why I would expect any different. It’s only public life and property on the line haha. Totally agree! Only thing that sucks is the bulk of this storm comes in the overnight hours, the heaviest at least. I wish it was during the day so I could enjoy it :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 There are some incredibly large precipitation ranges between the CAMS across most of Iowa for a 36 hour precip forecast. I've seen ranges anywhere from a couple tenths to close to 3/4" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Prediction from local TV station in South Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Winter Storm watches up for portions of the GTA. Current forecast is 2-4" northern Suburbs, 4" Downtown, and where the winter storm watches are (west end of GTA to border) up to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I feel like given Toronto's horrendous luck over the last 4 years, it's only fitting we get whiffed with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mississaugasnow said: Winter Storm watches up for portions of the GTA. Current forecast is 2-4" northern Suburbs, 4" Downtown, and where the winter storm watches are (west end of GTA to border) up to 10". We are very close to the heavier amounts to our south. One more bump to the north will help a great deal. Some of the 12z Euro ensembles give more than 0.6” QPF (15 mm) to the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Winter Storm Watches extending from Missouri to Maine, but nothing yet issued in the DTX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, snowcaine said: I feel like give Toronto's luck over the last 4 years, it's only fitting we get whiffed with 2" I have a good feeling this one will give us a nice surprise by Sunday morning. Tonight’s 00z model runs with more sampling will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Prediction from local TV station in South Bend. I agree with this depiction, it shows the fgen band and the main southern stream storm fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: I agree with this depiction, it shows the fgen band and the main southern stream storm fairly well. But do you agree with that sweet, sweet band of 7-10" totals running up into SE Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The Northern Indiana southeast Michigan gang have to hope for a more robust system they are stuck in limbo right now. I think the FGEN band does this area well on Saturday. Those tend to be undermodeled and then the far SE part of the area could still get swiped by the southern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, n1vek said: But do you agree with that sweet, sweet band of 7-10" totals running up into SE Michigan? I didn't go quite that high with my call on facebook, but I could see some in the metro getting 8" or 9". Lowest end 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Well, I'm on the border of 3-5 and 5-7 per NWS for snow and a .10 to a glaze of ice. Other forecasts are different. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Honestly I would have issued a watch for the southern 3 tiers of counties in MI, I don't know why GRR/DTX didn't. Worse case scenario you back into a WWA. I am always of the idea of using watches to outline potential and downgrading if needed. Upgrading mid event is never good in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Storm is good, hopefully this pans out. I'm more interested in the LES. It's seldom that the west side of Lake MI receives a decent LE amount, and I hope this pans out even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Didn't see it mentioned but the GFS was basically a drier, slightly south version of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Prediction from local TV station in South Bend. Did you forward to GRR? If not, pls do on behalf of their S tier. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Didn't see it mentioned but the GFS was basically a drier, slightly south version of the NAM. I guess that's somewhat of a consensus..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Didn't see it mentioned but the GFS was basically a drier, slightly south version of the NAM. Shoved the F gen band a bit further north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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