Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM...Yet again coming in a bit further north with the wave as it push across the coast and into the West. More organized trough this run, and a bit more neutral tilted earlier. This run is going to be more north and stronger/organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM coming in hot across Iowa and along/north of 88 in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM coming in hot across Iowa and along/north of 88 in IL Are you SURE about that? That's within the realm of possibility sure, but unless they're going all in on the NAM, it's too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM going to crush northern Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Are you SURE about that? That's within the realm of possibility sure, but unless they're going all in on the NAM, it's too early for that. It’s still snowing in IL at this point... I am sure this qualifies as a “hot run”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Shame we can't get this Low to work its way more NE and scoot through southern Illinois. Blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hi. Models have been very consistent in the sucker hole. IKK just happens to be pretty much locked in it. That’s why I think a Watch for here is kinda silly. It’ll be an advisory at best for the LOT CWA portions, south of I-80. North of there, different story. Feels bad man. Hope you’re wrong but suspect you are not . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me FWIW 18z NAM coming in with a similar screw hole across Northern ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: More organized trough this run, and a bit more neutral tilted earlier. This run is going to be more north and stronger/organized. I'll be honest. I'd rather sit in that FGEN band and get snow for 18hrs, than get a crush job for 10 hours and watch it snow to my north. I've watched that way to many times to my north from here in NW OH. Sometimes it's not about how much you get, but the duration and steadiness of it, for me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: FWIW 18z NAM coming in with a similar screw hole across Northern ILX I just saw that I'm not sure I still believe a screw hole to be that large with this but concerning it shows one similar to euro. Guess only time can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: I just saw that I'm not sure I still believe a screw hole to be that large with this but concerning it shows one similar to euro. Guess only time can tell hopefully for your sake it isn't nearly as big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GRR never fails to amaze me. A general “1-4” with accums near 6” along I-94” - but who needs to know? No mention of a SWS, WSW, WWA... nothing haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Somebody recently asked about this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sounds about right ATM for, GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: hopefully for your sake it isn't nearly as big It def isn't a dry air issue because there is widespread snow. Def some kind of forcing. But usually just south or north of an intense band is where you would see any subsidence. That's a large swath of weaker totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z Nam run shows NW/N Ohio getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, whoosh said: Somebody recently asked about this ... Well Looks like I'm screwed all around... If I stay downtown Saturday (to not drive Saturday AM after the first round) I'll get hit with the Lake Effect (as I'm right in the Downtown area). Hmmmm. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 WSWs hoisted for IND. 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: It’s still snowing in IL at this point... I am sure this qualifies as a “hot run”. That's also quite the gradient along the northern tier of Indiana counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: It def isn't a dry air issue because there is widespread snow. Def some kind of forcing. But usually just south or north of an intense band is where you would see any subsidence. That's a large swath of weaker totals It's due to the heavier FGEN snows being to your north, and the main synoptic snows to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Unless we get small shifts north the LES north of the border looks to be ded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ILX hoisted watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, michaelmantis said: If I stay downtown Saturday (to not drive Saturday AM after the first round) I'll get hit with the Lake Effect (as I'm right in the Downtown area). Hmmmm. Kids and Dads love Metra! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Sounds about right ATM for, GRR. GRR will get between 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, whoosh said: Kids and Dads love Metra! Problem is I need to get to the Museum of Science and Industry ;-) Already have a hotel booked downtown in case I can't make it home Saturday AM. Wondering how long even the 5 mile drive north on Lake Shore Drive will take at 9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: It's due to the heavier FGEN snows being to your north, and the main synoptic snows to your south. Yeah its clear as day. And it doesn't look like models want to budge north with round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aleksey said: GRR will get between 3-5" So yeah sounds about right. And considering the office. not sure what anybody was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, King James said: Feels bad man. Hope you’re wrong but suspect you are not . Yeah, we are kinda screwed sitting in the middle. At least it shouldn’t be a shut out. Some snow is better than no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, UMB WX said: so yeah sounds about right. and considering the office. not sure what anybody was expecting. yeah GRR office is horrible! They always go on the lower end. They never account for thermals, and the fact this could very well easily over perform. I think 3-5" is a pretty good bet. I will take that considering the fact we haven't seen that much snow since Novemeber lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Aleksey said: yeah GRR office is horrible! They always go on the lower end. They never account for thermals, and the fact this could very well easily over perform. I think 3-5" is a pretty good bet. I will take that considering the fact we haven't seen that much snow since Novemeber lol Frustrating for sure. This is normally a bread and butter GRR storm. Just can't buy a hooker from the pan handle anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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