Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Harry Perry said: They issued a WWA for the possibility of a glazing of ice the other day... the forecast discussion read like this “Going to err on the side of caution and issue an advisory”. I’m thinking, but when we have a storm with 6”+ of snow on the table shouldn’t you “err on side of caution” and issue a watch?? Oh wait, they’re expecting 1-2” with locally higher amounts Like the looks of the short range models this morning as well as the GFS and NAM. Looks more typical and inline with WAA snows which tend to overperform in situations like this. Will feel more solid about this storm after 00z tonight with full sampling of the energy off the pacific coast. Chicago could easily end up with some double digit snow due to lake enhancement. A rare occurrence on the side of the pond - interesting system to watch unfold. What do you think GRR will do? Euro just went good tick north and now lays down 5" Kuchera ratio, but with 15:1 and up to 18:1 ratios, I think 5-6" looks likely! Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like it's cwa wide. They go with 4-8” ending Saturday morning. So this is not including lake effect possibilities. Wonder if they’ll issue or extend headlines for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Love how euro has a stripe of heavy snow near WI-IL border and then one north of I70 with a massive donut hole of much lower totals in between. Going to go with a no on that. These globals are really messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 They go with 4-8” ending Saturday morning. So this is not including lake effect possibilities. Wonder if they’ll issue or extend headlines for this.Caveat:"locally heavier totals possible."Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro with a cyclone special for mid week storm. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Outside of a pretty epic screw hole over Dekalb on the FV3, models are gradually coming together on a good hit for N IL. Feeling pretty confident about warning criteria snows, and think the city proper is going to get smoked good when adding in lake enhancement and lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: They go with 4-8” ending Saturday morning. So this is not including lake effect possibilities. Wonder if they’ll issue or extend headlines for this. Likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Figuring out the exact placement of these screw zones is a bit challenging. Assuming they are real. Still some time to get a more filled in look I suppose but it's running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z euro ... updated to show only snow precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me Yea there's definitely a chance someone gets screwed. I noticed some of the NAMs were doing it where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me I'm 20 miles west of PIA in the EURO screwhole with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 DMX issues a warning for most if not all of the CWA. 6-10" expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me It has been been there for two days in some of the models....I have have seen it happen many times so I wouldn't LOL too much I foresee a moderate band of mod-heavy snow with a sharp south cut off drifting north starting at I-80 then stalling north of I-88..meanwhile precip will blossom south of us...and it will struggle to fill the gap this far north..and when it does it will be moving fast or almost over with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: It has been been there for two days in some of the models....I have have seen it happen many times so I wouldn't LOL too much I foresee a moderate band of mod-heavy snow with a sharp south cut off drifting north starting at I-80 then stalling north of I-88..meanwhile precip will blossom south of us...and it will struggle to fill the gap this far north..and when it does it will be moving fast or almost over with 7 minutes ago, DLMKA said: I'm 20 miles west of PIA in the EURO screwhole with you I agree that there will likely be a screw hole somewhere with subsidence in between intense bands but one as large as Euro no way. I think FV3 had a more realistic portrayal of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Cleveland just issued Winter Storm Watches for their entire CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15z SREF at ORD pulls back to about 6.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Cleveland just issued Winter Storm Watches for their entire CWA. Wow, they're usually well after IWX. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Northern Indiana just issued Winter Storm Watches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Jim Martin said: Northern Indiana just issued Winter Storm Watches too. Kind of an odd gap there in extreame ne Indiana/NW Ohio, is it not? Ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Never have understood why the ILX office is the last to issue any headlines. Even if things change you can downgrade your headline and make changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Figuring out the exact placement of these screw zones is a bit challenging. Assuming they are real. Still some time to get a more filled in look I suppose but it's running out. Hi. Models have been very consistent in the sucker hole. IKK just happens to be pretty much locked in it. That’s why I think a Watch for here is kinda silly. It’ll be an advisory at best for the LOT CWA portions, south of I-80. North of there, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Never have understood why the ILX office is the last to issue any headlines. Even if things change you can downgrade your headline and make changes Du calme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hi. Models have been very consistent in the sucker hole. IKK just happens to be pretty much locked in it. That’s why I think a Watch for here is kinda silly. It’ll be an advisory at best for the LOT CWA south of I-80. North of there, different story. We preferred not to do a watch south but for collaboration purposes went along with it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Du calme Am calm. Just making a statement. They almost always are last to issue. Meanwhile rap and hrrr continue to look quite amped with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We preferred not to do a watch south but for collaboration purposes went along with it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Hey, would you be able to share LOT’s thoughts on the lake effect piece of the puzzle, considering the watch only extends through noon Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looking forward to the upcoming AFD. How does the timing look (Chicago Loop) based on the current modeling? Seems to me like Saturday AM is going to be the height of it with most snow coming overnight before the Lake Effect kicks in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z NAM...Yet again coming in a bit further north with the wave as it push across the coast and into the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoblo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Never have understood why the ILX office is the last to issue any headlines. Even if things change you can downgrade your headline and make changes you're right, they take a frustratingly long time to issue. last week we never got a watch, just a warning when it was upon us. no need for that. I'll pop back into my cave now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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