HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Low ends up a bit stronger on the NAM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Those NAM totals are the best we've had in Northern Illinois and Michigan in days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 While the surface low track is pretty similar, there are some large differences in the precip field, especially in IA/IL/MI where the main WAA snows are displaced north with a general decrease in amounts with the slightly faster progression. This is a really good run for N IL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It actually still does try to close off at 500mb by 54-57hr.SLP ends up between 6z and 0z runs. Main difference is just in precip field, with it not trying to close off until a bit later than the past two runs. You can see heavier snows break out across S. IL as that occurs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM is a great hit for N Il. Edit: Cyclone javkpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I would like to start seeing the globals depicting a better FGEN band signal than they have been. These differences are disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The southern band has a new mind of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM is a great hit for N Il. Edit: Cyclone javkpot Remember the other day when we all hated the NAM and wanted to lock in the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I would like to start seeing the globals depicting a better FGEN band signal than they have been. These differences are disconcerting.They won’t handle it as well as the hi-res.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z RGEM is holding as well, similar to the 0z and 6z runs. 500mb tries to close off over C. Missouri by 48hr, with 999mb SLP in S. Illinois. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 12z RGEM has a 999mb low over Paducah at hour 48. A little bit further north with slightly better phasing than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM is a great hit for N Il. Edit: Cyclone javkpot Thats a great NAM run. Interested to see what changes, if any, by EOD day with sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm starting to think that there's something going on with the warm sector convection with this system that some of the globals aren't handling that the meso models are.There's a good reason to be a bit uneasy when the Euro is much more paltry and you'd like to see some even minor positive trends today. On the other hand, we're in the non clown range of the meso models, sampling of the Pac wave has begun, and the meso models aren't backing down. Also, to second what's been said, fgen will absolutely be handled better by the meso models than the globals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 55 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: The southern band has a new mind of its own. I want that thing to come north by just 10 miles lol. Unsure what to make of the global vs. hi-res situation at this juncture. Want to start trusting the hi-res stuff more at this time given that we’re closing in on 48 hours and banding placement becomes more of a factor for who sees jackpot snow. But at the same time, that all goes out the window if this thing indeed takes a “Euro-step” weaker and southward. What’s the timing projection on this thing being fully sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 09z SREF Plume Snowfall for Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z GFS likely coming north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z GFS likely coming north..Southern trough is more organized, and goes neutral tilt faster. Some of those lead pieces of energy allow it to phase with northern stream faster. Thus, this run is stronger and further north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Southern trough is more organized, and goes neutral tilt faster. Some of those lead pieces of energy allow it to phase with northern stream faster. Thus, this run is stronger and further north. . Raining all the way to I-72 across central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z GGEM north as well.H5 isn’t too far off the RGEM, just doesn’t have as good of an outcome. Still gets 1000mb SLP into SE. Missouri.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS snow totals I think are way underdone in northern IL. I think it is having convective feedback or something. It is so splotchy with totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS snow totals I think are way underdone in northern IL. I think it is having convective feedback or something. It is so splotchy with totalsRemember how badly it did with last weekends storm...Most runs didn’t have above 9” anywhere. We know how that worked out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Definitely looking a lot better for us peeps in Western Michigan! Great trends so far this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: GFS snow totals I think are way underdone in northern IL. I think it is having convective feedback or something. It is so splotchy with totals Yeah, seems like the surface lows are generally similar in strength and location on the 12z GFS and 12z NAM...but for Chicago area, GFS shows about 0.4” of liquid and NAM is close to 1”. Splitting the difference is probably a reasonable approach for now. 0.7” of liquid at 13:1 ratios implies about 9” of snow. Admittedly it’s a very rough estimate, but we will see what other hi res guidance starts showing as it gets into better range. Either way, lake effect/enhancement will be an interesting wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Remember how badly it did with last weekends storm...Most runs didn’t have above 9” anywhere. We know how that worked out... . Literally was just thinking that. It under estimated northern fringe of accumulating snow and only had like 5-7in here when 10-13in fell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Winter storm watches hoisted for DVNs CWA. Not sure who all is included but Linn and Johnson are. EDIT: their entire CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: Winter storm watches hoisted for DVNs CWA. Not sure who all is included but Linn and Johnson are. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1005 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...Significant Winter Storm to Affect the Area... .A significant winter storm will affect the area starting Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday. Unlike the last winter storm, the snow from this storm will be of the dry, fluffy type. Additionally, winds will be stronger and will create drifting snow with some blowing snow possible. Snow/rain ratios will be increasing during this winter storm. Thus it is possible that snowfall amounts could trend higher over the next 24 hours. IAZ054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035-180015- /O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0001.190118T2100Z-190119T2100Z/ Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside- Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren- Hancock-McDonough- Including the cities of Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb 1005 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. Storm total accumulations could exceed 6 inches. Drifting snow is likely with some blowing snow possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Iowa and north central, northwest and west central Illinois. * WHEN...From 3 PM Friday through 3 PM Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The north trend is making me nervous. 12z GFS now has 2.2” for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, hlcater said: Winter storm watches hoisted for DVNs CWA. Not sure who all is included but Linn and Johnson are. It's their whole CWA. DMX is considering a warning... potentially a warning for the north and south with an advisory in between.... or a blanket warning. Should be a decision within a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM is a great hit for N Il. Edit: Cyclone javkpot How ironic would that be after days of being shown in the lull zone? The GFS and now the RGEM still show the area of lower totals from east Iowa through parts of northern IL so I'm not biting on this one lol. Would be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm betting that because of the uncertainty IWX will eventually go for a CWA wide Winter Storm Watch with amounts as 4-7 for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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