mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3z SREF came in weaker. I don’t think this is happening. Too much consensus from the globals and too much known amped bias from the hi res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: 3z SREF came in weaker. I don’t think this is happening. Too much consensus from the globals and too much known amped bias from the hi res. The SREF has a tendency to go up and down run to run, focusing on a single hours one isnt the best idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: 3z SREF came in weaker. I don’t think this is happening. Too much consensus from the globals and too much known amped bias from the hi res. I like LOT's read on this. Even in a discombobulated manner your in line for in excess of 6". And of course still the possibility exists all factors come together for a doozy...though that is appearing less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Baum said: I like LOT's read on this. Even in a discombobulated manner your in line for in excess of 6". And of course still the possibility exists all factors come together for a doozy...though that is appearing less likely. I’m thinking more 2-5” from synoptic snows, but I could see the lake effect pushing us over 6 if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z RGEM is lol. Rains to LAF. HIRES models are being ridiculous. FGEN plus LES will make for a nice storm for Chicago. Have to have some perspective. Alas, there will be a screw zone of sorts that gets stuck in the middle. Unfortunately I'm sitting dead center in it right now. But, I'm hoping to squeeze out 2-4", which would be a nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I’m thinking more 2-5” from synoptic snows, but I could see the lake effect pushing us over 6 if we get lucky. key will be where that frontogentic band takes up residence. btw....you could be in line for 6" just from lake effect. Alot of potential if it could be relaized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Baum said: key will be where that frontogentic band takes up residence. btw....you could be in line for 6" just from lake effect. Alot of potential if it could be relaized. I agree the FGEN placement is key for areas north and would me the difference between 2” and 5”, maybe slightly more locally. Hoping for anything else is not prudent. I almost consider the lake effect a different event considering it will be happening 12+ hours later and I’m not sure how LOT handles that. Perhaps WWA to lake effect snow advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Could see areas that get under the fgen band seeing 6”+, especially if stronger trends can continue. Any early guesses on where it’ll set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I agree the FGEN placement is key for areas north and would me the difference between 2” and 5”, maybe slightly more locally. Hoping for anything else is not prudent. I almost consider the lake effect a different event considering it will be happening 12+ hours later and I’m not sure how LOT handles that. Perhaps WWA to lake effect snow advisory? 2-5" on the FGEN band is conservative. Read the AFD. Pretty clear they are thinking Watch to a Warning in your neck of the woods. Though I'm long past getting caught up in the NWS designations. Today's 12Z runs will dictate that. Though NE IL looks pretty decent even with the fractured nature of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hot Diggity. I don’t own a shovel and scant the chance to purchase one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So is the right way to read this is the yellow is just lake enhancement in the first wave and any potential lake effect isn’t included? What a change from overnight. The enhancement goes pretty far out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So is the right way to read this is the yellow is just lake enhancement in the first wave and any potential lake effect isn’t included? What a change from overnight. The enhancement goes pretty far out west.That is just synoptic/FGEN/lake enhancement.Any pure LES from Sat/Sun is not included...and that likely will be several inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I like how this was put together. Here is the base line map of the minimums before sampling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 38 minutes ago, Baum said: 2-5" on the FGEN band is conservative. Read the AFD. Pretty clear they are thinking Watch to a Warning in your neck of the woods. Though I'm long past getting caught up in the NWS designations. Today's 12Z runs will dictate that. Though NE IL looks pretty decent even with the fractured nature of this system. I think you misunderstood. I think around 5”, perhaps locally more for where the FGEN sets up, and 2-5” for the area outside of that. Ultimately it’s not that different from the NWS map just posted, just slightly lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z ECMWF might have been slightly worse than the already terrible 0z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: So is the right way to read this is the yellow is just lake enhancement in the first wave and any potential lake effect isn’t included? What a change from overnight. The enhancement goes pretty far out west. Elgin and Cary could receive lake enhancement but too far west for LES. Have received some flurries from LES. Think of 294 and east for LES.Still suspect of hi-res models since Euro holding steady further south and has been the most consistent. NAM can be volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What's been interesting over the past several days is that LOT has not done much model analysis rather opting for more a feel of the synoptic set up and perhaps a historical approach to how these things can play out to derive the event potential. In short, I don't think I've seen any consternation on their part with regards to the more sheared southern look of the globals versus the more amped approach of the hi-res models. Refreshing approach IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Elgin and Cary could receive lake enhancement but too far west for LES. Have received some flurries from LES. Think of 294 and east for LES.Still suspect of hi-res models since Euro holding steady further south and has been the most consistent. NAM can be volatile.I would say that...Most recent pure LES occurrence was 3/13-14/17 for those areas, which did provide accumulation. Actually had a couple inches of LES from that here as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Curious, how has the Euro performed the last few days at 2-3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, TheRegionRat said: Curious, how has the Euro performed the last few days at 2-3 days? With the last event certainly better than the hi res guidance, and the GFS, which were atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not sure what happened with the SREFs but 9z took a massive step towards an amped solution. 8” mean at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Any other time of year and this would be one hell of a severe set up down south, I do think they get some as is but man, if this was March and beyond. Big winter outbreaks can and have happened, 1/7 and 2/5 (Super Tuesday) '08 and December 2015 spring immediately to mind, to a lesser extent February 2016 and '17. However the persistent issues from 2018 seem to be lingering with this one, particularly poor warm-sector lapse rates despite the Gulf being wide open and with it being winter, you'd think it would be so frigid upstairs that cloud cover wouldn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: Not sure what happened with the SREFs but 9z took a massive step towards an amped solution. 8” mean at ORD Sounds like it's all going to depend on where the initial band sets up for the first wave, then where the LE sets up. Unfortunately, both are more of a nowcast thing and hard to pinpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I would say that... Most recent pure LES occurrence was 3/13-14/17 for those areas, which did provide accumulation. Actually had a couple inches of LES from that here as well. . Yeah lived here since 2002 and can't remember any LES events of consequence this far west. Remember you from accuforums back in the day circa 2007/08. That winter was kind to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not sure what happened with the SREFs but 9z took a massive step towards an amped solution. 8” mean at ORDIt’s not surprising, given the NAM solution the past few runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z NAM coming in a bit less amped that the 6z, and not too far off from the 0z run. Biggest difference is how initial pieces of energy ejects out are handled and developed within the trough. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Anyone got eyes on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah lived here since 2002 and can't remember any LES events of consequence this far west. Remember you from accuforums back in the day circa 2007/08. That winter was kind to our area. There have been a few, just nothing really significant.I remember you as well. That was the glory days, until winter 2013/2014 came around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not any huge shifts one way or another (at least at the surface), but a hair quicker aloft. Close to a neutral tilt by 51hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z NAM coming in a bit less amped that the 6z, and not too far off from the 0z run. Biggest difference is how initial pieces of energy ejects out are handled and developed within the trough. . To add to this...The difference hinge on the initial energy that ejects our and how it’s handled. Previous runs were a bit stronger and more organized, with helped close off 500mb and pull the main wave NE in the trough. This new run is a bit weaker and disorganized with those lead pieces of energy, so it doesn’t close off at 500mb and the main wave stays a bit further south in the through. However, there is more phasing this run that makes up for that loss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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