Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Track fluctuations this far out are super expected, liking the massive amped look though Agreed. This could be one meaty storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Track fluctuations this far out are super expected, liking the massive amped look though ICON same place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The Thursday piece was much stronger which lowered heights ahead of the weekend system, that is why it tracked further south while being stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: The Thursday piece was much stronger which lowered heights ahead of the weekend system, that is why it tracked further south while being stronger. Was just about to say. Nevertheless this storm looks incredible for the entire eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The GFS has been slowing the main energy in recent runs, trending toward the euro. If the main energy is not quick enough to sneak underneath the Hudson Bay gyre(previous gfs runs showed this), it'll tend to be suppressed more, like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS has been slowing the main energy in recent runs, trending toward the euro. If the main energy is not quick enough to sneak underneath the Hudson Bay gyre(previous gfs runs showed this), it'll tend to be suppressed more, like the euro. That gyre is there no matter what even if it was faster. The key is the initial piece. It needs to be as weak as possible otherwise this is another suppression job because the heights won't be able to rise quickly enough behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: That gyre is there no matter what even if it was faster. The key is the initial piece. It needs to be as weak as possible otherwise this is another suppression job because the heights won't be able to rise quickly enough behind it. Initial piece as in the preliminary Thursday event right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 You are right about that lead piece of energy and its strength having an influence on the main storm. However, also check out the GFS 500 trend to see the main energy going from tucked under the Hudson Bay gyre to holding farther west and able to be suppressed by that lobe crashing down from the nw on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Angrysummons said: The initial piece can be strong, but the models track is to flat, which confuses them. Heights need to pump in that regard. The 18z's sin there is evident. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hawkeye and Stebo's posts show the players on the field that will need to be sorted out. I think the idea of the slower it is, the more likely it means a southern track has some merit. The way to get a more northern track with a slower system would be if the confluence is weaker than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hawkeye and Stebo's posts show the players on the field that will need to be sorted out. I think the idea of the slower it is, the more likely it means a southern track has some merit. The way to get a more northern track with a slower system would be if the confluence is weaker than currently progged. Which is where that initial piece needs to be weaker, a stronger piece would promote more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: We actually got more snow in November, lol...although the big dog whiffed to the south which appears in retrospect to have been the start of a trend. Lol true. Story of the last 2 years. Only get snow at the very beginning and end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The southern trend seems very plausible to me. Snow breeds snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Lol true. Story of the last 2 years. Only get snow at the very beginning and end of winter. The challenge has been insurmountable to get that one cutter to Dayton Ohio. We know the most likely outcome of this one already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run. Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out. There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run. Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out. There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too. The models could erase the system in its entirety and it'd still be hard to be pessimistic with such kinds words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Cyclone has the hot hand, let’s keep this going. Anyway, does not appear much melting will occur throughout the week prior to this storm. 1/5/14 popping up on CIPS analog yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run. Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out. There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too. I have a good feeling about this one, which is rare for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Not a big surprise to see the 18z GFS supress the storm south of Toronto. Frustrating, but not unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said: Not a big surprise to see the 18z GFS supress the storm south of Toronto. Frustrating, but not unexpected. Relax, the system is far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 FV3 is north and faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: FV3 is north and faster 120h in P-handle. Can you see beyond that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 120h in P-handle. Can you see beyond that?? Tropical Tidbits MSLP + 10m wind can see well beyond that. It's def not north of it's 12z run though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 120h in P-handle. Can you see beyond that?? It's also cooler than 12Z, snow area stays snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Most euro ensembles were better for the northern edge than the op euro. Looks like the same with the 18z gefs now that gfs suppressed. Looks like a lot of waffling in the coming days. Im wondering what our northern and southern boundary possibilities are with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said: Tropical Tidbits MSLP + 10m wind can see well beyond that. It certainly doesn’t look further north than the 12z runs on MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: It certainly doesn’t look further north than the 12z runs on MSLP I agree ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: It certainly doesn’t look further north than the 12z runs on MSLP I meant further north than the operational, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: It certainly doesn’t look further north than the 12z runs on MSLP And tracks to NKY and dies?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 FV3 is also kind of a turd until it gets to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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