Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: At some point I'd love to head out that way and get into one of those lake-effect bands. Other than the meager flurries we'll get from the lake on rare occasion I've never been in a true lake-effect snow band. Maybe Weatherbo will invite us up for a Superior 24 inch hammer time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hey, don't shortchange mimillman's lake effect Hey not bad for you too! The lake effect is the bright spot for us both IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, mimillman said: Hey not bad for you too! The lake effect is the bright spot for us both IMO. Agree I am thinking 13-15:1 ratios or something like that for most of the synoptic part. Then for the lake effect, that is often high ratio and there's no reason to doubt that this time given the temps and the omega/dgz collocation. Winds also will be diminishing with time so dendrite fracturing shouldn't be an issue. Should have no problem getting very high ratios with the lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Convection now appearing in ne OK and sw MO with this first wave for Thursday. Did not expect that much intensity and hope it doesn't mess things up for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: At this rate I can forgetta bout it wrt any "watch" from my office. Gonna be surrounded by 'em with a dead zone in between We know this all too well. GRR is taking this as a slam dunk 1-4” but they sure do seem impressed about next Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s focus on the here and now potential first GRR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 0z Euro did not change much, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: The 0z Euro did not change much, I think. No it's still too far south/messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0z EMCWF did come in further north and more neutral tilt with the trough coming into the Plains...But outside of that SLP pushes fairly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z EMCWF did come in further north and more neutral tilt with the trough coming into the Plains...But outside of that SLP pushes fairly east. When you look at the surface wind fields one would argue that the surface low should be further north but the model has the lowest pressure further south in the elongation of the low. Then yeah the southern lower pressure gets pulled east by convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 You can also see some convective feedback in the surface wind/mslp after 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So all in all 0z summary is we still have no clue. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 The fact that the Euro continues the weak sauce output definitely makes me lean towards it and the wussy GFS as well. Unfortunately it looks like the NAM/RGEM are incorrect. Lol @ <0.2" precip from here to Ottawa. A big F-U from the Euro along that corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Grasping straws instance, but the long range RAP is even further north with the trough as ejects out into the Plains and is more neutral tilt earlier. SLP is way up in S. Kansas. Edit: Might have to click to loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Grasping straws instance, but the long range RAP is even further north with the trough as ejects out into the Plains and is more neutral tilt earlier. SLP is way up in S. Kansas. If that map is correct I see why the models want to dive this far to the south then. It is that nonsense across Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The fact that the Euro continues the weak sauce output definitely makes me lean towards it and the wussy GFS as well. Unfortunately it looks like the NAM/RGEM are incorrect. Sadly I think you're right. Pretty close to throwing in the towel on this one coming together but going to hold off to see if sampling will change model output or not. Would like to see support from the globals in favor of the hi-res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am not discounting the wetter runs. Particularly the case in the fgen band, which higher res models should be better with (theoretically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 06z so far is continuing its trend of slower and stronger in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 06z so far is continuing its trend of slower and stronger in the plains.Big changes again, in a positive way.Southern trough ends up going neutral tilt earlier yet again, and this run closed off 500mb over C. Kansas by 51hr. Slower a bit as you mentioned, do the the aforementioned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Big changes again, in a positive way. Southern trough ends up going neutral tilt earlier yet again, and this run closed off 500mb over C. Kansas by 51hr. Slower a bit as you mentioned, do the the aforementioned. . Any other time of year and this would be one hell of a severe set up down south, I do think they get some as is but man, if this was March and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What a run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: What a run... . Wow thats a fantasy type run for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: What a run... . Does do a couple of funky things as it tries to phase but all and all a very favorable run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hot Doggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Significant LE snow post-storm for Chicago, for over 24hrs. There’s also enhancement during the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3km looks equally as good at the end of the run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 At this rate, me and Stebo might actually get some good stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 6z RGEM is north again too.1001mb SLP around Joplin at 48hr, with 500mb closed off around Topeka.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 6z RGEM is north again too. 1001mb SLP around Joplin at 48hr, with 500mb closed off around Topeka. . Well this mesoscale vs global matchup is going to be one for the ages because the mesoscale isn't backing down any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 How about this for a deep and north run, 36 hours the 06Z HRRR has the low in KS, 997 at Dodge City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 06Z GFS is a touch northwest once in Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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