Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Well you guys stole another storm from us. Enjoy it and dont take it for granted. I've grown tired of this terrible hobby. I have been happy once in my time tracking over these past 9 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: It doesn't plot sleet/freezing rain either. So dumb. It is worthless tbh, it is like when desperate people bust out the JMA or the Brazilian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 0z FV actually came in a bit south aloft and with precip, but around the same for the SLP. That stuff in the KY/TN area is holding down the heights even though it is very weak vorticity and has no surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2nd spread the wealth system in a week.. Nobody stole anything. This is the finest lamest storm as modeled ATM to hit such a large demographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Globals vs Hi-Res...We've seen this battle before, but it's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Lol... Okay I just did and started laughing with how it zigzags the low all over the place. It can't figure out where the hell it is going. I tend to reference it for the mid levels when tracking the tropics, with as well, dare I say it, the NAM strictly for steering above 500mb as tropical systems approach the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Globals vs Hi-Res...We've seen this battle before, but it's been a while. If that is still the case 24 hours from now, I think I know which way I'd lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z UKMET 994 mb in southern KY, then goes basically east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Globals vs Hi-Res...We've seen this battle before, but it's been a while. I'm kind of puzzled as to which side to choose. Usually I'd lean towards the hi-res around this time, but the globals seem to be holding their ground. If the Euro comes in similar to it's previous few runs I really won't know what to think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z UKMET 994 mb in southern KY, then goes basically east. This will be a winter to remember for central Illinois/Indiana/Missouri. More snow than most northern cities with 2x their annual norms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z UKMET 994 mb in southern KY, then goes basically east. That is a big jump north from 12z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: I'm kind of puzzled as to which side to choose. Usually I'd lean towards the hi-res around this time, but the globals seem to be holding their ground. If the Euro comes in similar to it's previous few runs I really won't know what to think lol. The thing is the globals seem to be drastically different with erratic changes so not sure. Sampling can't come soon enough. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: I'm kind of puzzled as to which side to choose. Usually I'd lean towards the hi-res around this time, but the globals seem to be holding their ground. If the Euro comes in similar to it's previous few runs I really won't know what to think lol. Globals all the way. I’ll tsle my 3” and LE and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: That is a big jump north from 12z run though. For that time-frame, yes...but before that it is identical, and after that it's actually a bit south. Seems like it started to push ENE, then got shunted east, as did the trough...similar to the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: This will be a winter to remember for central Illinois/Indiana/Missouri. More snow than most northern cities with 2x their annual norms Perhaps.....but the season started late along the I-70 corridor here in central IN with the snowstorm last Sat. But I am liking the current trends for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I changed God's the last system so I'll stand at the FV3 alter, but I am fickle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Globals all the way. I’ll tsle my 3” and LE and run At some point I'd love to head out that way and get into one of those lake-effect bands. Other than the meager flurries we'll get from the lake on rare occasion I've never been in a true lake-effect snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0z GEFS came in a bit south/drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Perhaps.....but the season started late along the I-70 corridor here in central IN with the snowstorm last Sat. But I am liking the current trends for the future. Winter started for Chicago last Saturday too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I honestly don't know what to expect at this point. Nam last time sniffed out the higher totals esp to the north. Doesn't mean it is right everytime but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 As of right now unless something changes drastically I am looking at a repeat of last Saturday's 7-8 inches of snow in my area. Still a bit concerned with 850's though and WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Winter started for Chicago last Saturday too lol You're forgetting the November blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM and GFS be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You're forgetting the November blizzard. Perhaps for you. Not for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: As of right now unless something changes drastically I am looking at a repeat of last Saturday's 7-8 inches of snow in my area. Still a bit concerned with 850's though and WAA. It probably doesn't hurt that the stronger low level jet stays south of Indy. That being said, I'd still anticipate mixing, but hopefully not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It probably doesn't hurt that the stronger low level jet stays south of Indy. That being said, I'd still anticipate mixing, but hopefully not too much. The nose gets right up there for a bit but moves on east fairly rapidly I think points right along I70 in central IN maybe a little north could see some mixing on the onset but hopefully that's it. We're used to that anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK Looks like it must be further south with that initial fronto band. This sort of illustrates that for the DVN area it might actually be better if the whole system ends up south, as it moves the "screw zone" south out of the area. Interestingly the NAMs don't have this zone of screwage like what the GFS has shown for the past several runs. It just adds to the uncertainty of how this will evolve. Guess we'll find out as we go forward lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK Hey, don't shortchange mimillman's lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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