IllinoisWedges Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Better than before, I think at this rate you'll all be back in the money soon The trends are nice, that's for sure. Not getting my hopes up though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Maybe it is just me, but this storm seems exhausting to track. Yeah I agree. I am stressed out after reading these 25 pages for the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS has us up to 9 in locally now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'll take one for the team for an hour or so so folks N can get in on the game but lets keep this track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Maybe it is just me, but this storm seems exhausting to track. Hahaha well it certainly has its share of followers. Oh my. Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, Frog Town said: We are just out of tracking shape, LOL. Cumulative exhaustion by next week. Nice change of pace though after winter disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Little more work to do to get MSF a foot but we're getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Snow wise, yes. But we have stopped the bleeding from a zzzz system. Hopefully keep stepping the right direction Looks pretty similar to the 12z for this area. Would like this system to slow down a little. Not a big fan of these fast movers for appreciable amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Sciascia said: The AccuWeather online forecast layout being very premature predicting 8-12 inches for the Chicagoland area. Definitely shouldn’t put that out there in text. It’s accuweather, what do you expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looking at the DSM NWS forecast discussion it would seem they are being quite conservative about central Iowa. They are thinking 3 inches or so maybe 4, but most models I’ve seen are showing 4-7 inches here, with the 18z NAM closer to 8 inches and the GFS at over 6. The argument is that it’ll be columns and not dendrites, but I have a feeling they might change their minds and include us in a Watch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ConvectiveIA said: Looking at the DSM NWS forecast discussion it would seem they are being quite conservative about central Iowa. They are thinking 3 inches or so maybe 4, but most models I’ve seen are showing 4-7 inches here, with the 18z NAM closer to 8 inches and the GFS at over 6. The argument is that it’ll be columns and not dendrites, but I have a feeling they might change their minds and include us in a Watch tomorrow A lot of guidance was fairly dry prior to the 18z runs. The grids have 4-6” now, don’t have a problem with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: A lot of guidance was fairly dry prior to the 18z runs. The grids have 4-6” now, don’t have a problem with that. Yeah the 18z runs come out too late for the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18Z FV3 is extremely north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Very happy to see the trends continue, the thing is this could very well be mostly southern stream and still give a great hit to the subforum if it goes neutral to negative tilt. Basically another way to come a great outcome without as much significant phasing. There is more than enough cold air in place on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The fact the low tracks across Oklahoma now instead of Texas is a great starting point for us too, that means it doesn't have to track much ENE/NE to work out for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Great points Stebo! Was thinking the same thing. A more NE movement would help though with keeping the deformation band around longer. Has anyone noticed how much models are underestimating the current snowpack we have to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Great points Stebo! Was thinking the same thing. A more NE movement would help though with keeping the deformation band around longer. Has anyone noticed how much models are underestimating the current snowpack we have to? In my scenario if we want the deformation band to hold into the region longer, we need this to go negative tilted or phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: In my scenario if we want the deformation band to hold into the region longer, we need this to go negative tilted. Totally agree. You may have a shot being further east but I may be too west to benefit from it. Depends on if and when that even occurs. 18z runs were certainly more encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looking more and more that this potential significant winter storm will impact Northwest Ohio Saturday and Saturday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think this is a good average starting point for around here. Let's see how things trend as we get some sampling going on Thursday. DMX: Quote Confidence continues to increase in a widespread snowfall across Iowa from Friday into early Saturday. Blustery north to northeast winds are also expected and will likely cause visibility restrictions due to blowing and drifting snow, especially while snow is still falling. Behind this system very cold air is expected to surge into the state, wind chills well below zero expected by Saturday night. DVN: Quote The likelihood of a winter storm impacting the region towards the end of the week is increasing. At this time, snowfall amounts around 4-6 inches will be possible from Friday afternoon through Saturday, with the bulk of the snow falling Friday night. If you have plans to be out and about this weekend, please continue to monitor later forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 SREF plume continues to come in good. 21z mean at ORD is 7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: SREF plume continues to come in good. 21z mean at ORD is 7” Nice jump from previous runs in earlier hours. There's actually a greater number of them above the mean as well. They also have a period of 1-4"/hr snowfall rates Friday night/Saturday morning. The mean is closer to 1-2"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So here are some thoughts on the lake effect potential for western/southern Lake Michigan... Many times the low level flow allows for lake enhanced snow on the western shore, with this translating eastward into IN and then MI as the low level flow backs westerly and that's that. In this case, there has been a trend in the past day or two to have the surface high slide east near the US/Canada border instead of more southward into the Plains. Assuming this doesn't reverse itself on future model runs, the effect that this has is to not shift the flow westerly as much and as quickly. As a result, there is a growing possibility that once the band establishes itself into NE IL/NW IN, it may tend to hang around the area much of the time. A plausible scenario is that the band shifts into IN and possibly southwest MI for a time on Sunday, but then actually drifts back west toward the western shore late Sunday into Monday as the low level flow becomes more easterly. The lake band looks capable of dropping 6+ where it persists the longest. I'm talking pure LES and not enhancement. As has been mentioned, most parameters look good for heavy snow with the main negative being relatively low inversion heights around 5500-6000 feet. A lot of setups with inversion heights that low are pretty ho hum, but in this case, I believe the other favorable factors (good delta T, long fetch, favorable convergence, good omega/dgz profiles, etc) will help to compensate and produce heavy snow. I have seen heavy snow rates with similarly low inversion heights... it's just not as easy. If inversion heights were up around 700 mb or higher, I would feel quite confident in the band being able to produce 3-5" per hour rates given all the other favorable factors. But we don't have inversion heights like that, and off the top of my head I can't think of an event with these inversion heights that produced such heavy rates, so it's best to temper expectations a bit. That being said, I think 1-2" per hour rates are quite possible in the heart of the band at maturity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0z NAM starting to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0z NAM is coming in north with the southern wave entering the West Coast once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I hoping for at least 2" in Toronto. Would be nice if some of the heavier returns moved back north into my area, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Significantly more QPF on the 21z SREF around here. QPFs approaching 0.60” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM definitely going to be better and probably north. Southern wave is stronger, neutral tilt trough sooner, more ridging over Midwest/OV and less ridging over Western states earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: NAM definitely going to be better and probably north. Southern wave is stronger, neutral tilt trough sooner, more ridging over Midwest/OV and less ridging over Western states earlier. Fully agree Would be nice to see this continue at 12z, which is really the beginning of the cycles that matter more from a RAOB perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like the high pressure may be pushing in quicker on the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.