Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: This is more due to the wave crossing the Rockies/lee side cyclogenesis further south and remaining positively tilted, rather than swinging out to neutral/negative and allowing the low to cut. Oh I am fine with the storm not cutting because I know how that one would work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: I'd be far more concerned about something like that affecting the track than the snowpack. Oh I agree, the snowpack point isn't number 1 on the list but it can be a factor especially initial positioning of baroclinicity, as I noted before that it could be moot anyways with a strong enough LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Stebo said: My thought though is that the Euro is more amplified than anything and that also works in the direction of stronger highs too. Also the euro was the furthest south with the storm that just occurred only to come north as the storm closed in, so do have that going against the suppressed Euro solution. Euro handled the most recent storm better than the god awful GFS. The FV3 was probably best. FWIW though, the FV3 looks most similar to the GFS at hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: SLP gets up to at least I-70. That's my call and I'm sticking to it. I hope not. Ha. Would love to cash in on back to back significant winter storms. It's been a long time. Getting almost a foot yesterday has me thirsty for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Euro handled the most recent storm better than the god awful GFS. The FV3 was probably best. FWIW though, the FV3 looks most similar to the GFS at hour 120 At this junction before the storm the GFS was actually more correct, it just got worse closer in where the Euro got better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I'll just leave this right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ryan Maue tweeted the 12z euro 144 hr map. That sure looks familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 For Chicago area, the lake enhancement signal looks very good at this distance. So even if the synoptic system takes a less ideal track farther south, it shouldn't be a total loss. And if it does track farther north and combined with lake enhancement/effect, you can imagine what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'll just leave this right here... Wtf is BAMWX.com lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Wtf is BAMWX.com lol One of those long range forecasting websites that think things like the LRC and the BSR are great forecasting tools... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Wtf is BAMWX.com lol I haven't looked into them, but I think they're a couple of wx cowboys that post this stuff on social media and offer private meteorology services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12z UK is very similar to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: One of those long range forecasting websites that think things like the LRC and the BSR are great forecasting tools... 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I haven't looked into them, but I think they're a couple of wx cowboys that post this stuff on social media and offer private meteorology services. Yeah that tells me all I need to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: For Chicago area, the lake enhancement signal looks very good at this distance. So even if the synoptic system takes a less ideal track farther south, it shouldn't be a total loss. And if it does track farther north and combined with lake enhancement/effect, you can imagine what might happen. what are the inversion heights for this event and the possible Tuesday LE event (gfs event)? delta T should be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Stebo said: The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river. Like all the models, the euro will continue to waffle. I did not like how suppressed it was, we get grazed by probably 1-2 inches of snow. Outside of that the 12Z trends were not bad at all, in fact were sniffing rain with the Canadian. I wonder what the northern and Southern extent of the possibilities are with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: what are the inversion heights for this event and the possible Tuesday LE event (gfs event)? delta T should be huge I haven't even looked at Tuesday. For the weekend, inversion heights on the GFS aren't outstanding... like 6000 feet, but delta T eventually gets over 20C with a long fetch down the lake. The lake setup by itself would be capable of producing several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I hope we get somehitng out of this. Even 4-5 inches would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said: Come on storm dump some snow on me! Please! I hate this eternal November weather! We actually got more snow in November, lol...although the big dog whiffed to the south which appears in retrospect to have been the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I hope whatever happens EVERYONE in the sub has a snowcover before arctic armagaeddon. Nothing worse than going into something like that with bare ground. For us folks further south who just got the snow, that could happen if we get wiped out with rain for the weekend storm, followed by the flash freeze. puke Maybe we can luck out and get some decent frontal passage snow to ensure everyone gets covered up, even those who miss out on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: I hope not. Ha. Would love to cash in on back to back significant winter storms. It's been a long time. Getting almost a foot yesterday has me thirsty for more Peoria is well north of I-70 and I might have said Liquid/Frozen line vs. SLP to be more precise with my words. At that, you'd be golden. Hope you get the rare back-to-back storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 52 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah that tells me all I need to know BAMwx is an AG-focused private forecasting firm around Indy. They are pro-winter in a place that doesn't have the greatest winter climo. This could be Yuuge for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Does the infamous Alek “guest” account make an appearance in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 45 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Peoria is well north of I-70 and I might have said Liquid/Frozen line vs. SLP to be more precise with my words. At that, you'd be golden. Hope you get the rare back-to-back storms. I think areas from I70 north definitely have a good shot with this. Possibly I72 north depending on how much warm air this pulls up ahead of this. I already see snow maps and predictions making their rounds. Going to being a long week. Lol. And I agree with buckeye, would love to see a deep snowpack before one of these arctic dumps. Let's get that -32 on FV3 to verify ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 51 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: BAMwx is an AG-focused private forecasting firm around Indy. They are pro-winter in a place that doesn't have the greatest winter climo. This could be Yuuge for them I live in Indy. I'm a client and they are pretty good actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: The "snowpack" is going to degrade when the inversion ends anyway. Lots of warm snow. Not like there were arctic tundra temps for weeks ahead of this (last) system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18z run coming in slower and hotter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18z is much farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Like all the models, the euro will continue to waffle. I did not like how suppressed it was, we get grazed by probably 1-2 inches of snow. Outside of that the 12Z trends were not bad at all, in fact were sniffing rain with the Canadian. I wonder what the northern and Southern extent of the possibilities are with this one? WPC likes you for a reasonable shot at 3" which is not bad from this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: 18z is much farther south Track fluctuations this far out are super expected, liking the massive amped look though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: 18z is much farther south 998 mb in the P-handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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