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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

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12 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Welcome, and may we both do well in our great city.

Nothing like a good 84 hour NAM map to kick off the 00z suite. 

Even if by some chance the NAM is on the right track, I think a farther south track would probably prolong the LES on the western side of the lake.  

This setup is really going to have to go out of its way to not produce sig snow in the city.

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Excited to see all the Chicago people on the board and many from the old Accu forum...

I’m keeping a close eye on this storm. Going to be downtown overnight Friday at the Museum of Science and Industry for a sleepover with my kid and if one of the many models verifies and hits N IL I’m going to wake up in the city with a ton of snow on the ground (with it still falling) and a 60 mile drive home.

Can only wait to see if the track impacts the area but my question to the group is when/if the lake effect will kick in. Toying with the idea of spending Saturday in the city if this bad and not even attempting the 60 mile drive out west back home early Saturday morning.

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12z GFS is coming in further south with the southern wave, and slower with the northern wave. That delays any possible phase till after it's past the region.

In other words, not good for the Chicago crew...as it leads to a further south/weaker solution.

Edit: This run also digs the southern wave into Mexico, but not nearly as far as the NAM.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z GFS is coming in further south with the southern wave, and slower with the northern wave. That delays any possible phase till after it's past the region.

In other words, not good for the Chicago crew...as it leads to a further south/weaker solution.

Edit: This run also digs the southern wave into Mexico, but not nearly as far as the NAM.

if i recall correctly, GHD1 did this exact same thing about this far out.  hopefully its a sign :}

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Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

if i recall correctly, GHD1 did this exact same thing about this far out.  hopefully its a sign :}

Got a question: (I really didn't track weather much until like 2014 maybe, so I have fairly little recollection of GHD 1 other than it being awesome once the snow started) at roughly what point did it become apparent with GHD 1 that 20"+ amounts were possible? Was it feasible from the start? Or did become a trend later on? Also, did the storm shift to its actualized area of effect shortly before the day it hit or was N IL always the jackpot zone?

'Pologies for the off-topic comment. 

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

I am trying to figure out why the GFS handled things the way it did because it wasn't like it started off differently at all.

I think it has to do with that upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska honestly. It shunts the ridge out west pretty significantly and prevents the southern wave from digging enough.

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