Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, hlcater said:

Literally just last storm?

Yeah the last storm definitely shifted north after day 4. To be honest we have seen shifts south in this time frame 84-108 before only to see them shift right back north 6-12 hours later. As is though, this run is still good just a bit less on the amounts which is to be expected as the system isn't as phased this run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/14/2019 at 9:59 AM, Chicago Storm said:

I'm intrigued about this period...but there are some fail points.

The first potential issue is if that lead wave on Wed/Thur continues to show up in a more organized way, which could lead to a less favorable environment (such as lower heights) for this main system to follow. The second potential issue would be lesser phasing or a total missed phase between the northern and southern stream waves for this main system. The third potential issue would be how far north/south the southern wave comes through the West. The final potential issue would the placement of the PV over Canada, and if it ends up further north or south. 

So while I can see a big dog happening with 12"+ amounts somewhere, I could also see a weaker/unorganized system way south as well.

Edit: Another issue is also placement on northern stream, coming around the PV.

perspective. Though I know I'm good for 4 inches per Hoosier....:unsure:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple things to watch for...

Inconsistent handling of the northern lobe of energy rounding the vortex over the Hudson. 00z run was much better timed (albeit it did leave some room for improvement) but the 12z this feature is much slower and a little weaker. Trough/main vort max digs a little deeper than previous runs. True in the GFS too. 

While those things mean that it was a less widespread snow for the western half of the sub on the 12z suite, there still is a good signal for accumulating snow for a large fraction of people here, with big time snow potential still between I-70/80 in IL/IN/OH. Around this time last week the models were significantly south with their placement of QPF, so just be patient. One of the biggest problems with these events is that everyone latches on to the big runs from 7+ days out. Trends in the D4-5 period are normal and that doesn't mean models won't correct back in different directions over time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most models are now showing the dry moat through central Iowa.  An initial band of snow streaks across northern Iowa, then the main system organizes well south.

I had been saying how Iowa needed the PV lobe to back off, but maybe it's a case of 'be careful what you wish for'.  The PV is backoff off, but the main energy is digging even farther south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those on the north end of the storm looking for a bump north, those looking for a cutter, or the historic-like 0z ECMWF run to occur...

The one big negative I see that I didn't see before is that the main PV over the Hudson actually gets dragged east by a big storm around Greenland...just as the northern stream wave is diving south around the PV...which pulls the wave more the the east as well. One of the big reasons I believe the 0z ECMWF was a huge run is that the northern wave was faster and the PV was centered further west early on. This combination allowed the northern wave to dig more before sliding more easterly, allowing for some phasing earlier.

Placement of the southern wave is key as well. There is good agreement on it coming onshore in N. CA and diving SE, with the base of the trough down into El Paso eventually. After that what is needed is key timing, as well as the wave closing off further north. The 0z ECMWF also had this occur and what was aforementioned with the northern wave, which helped lead to the big run.

The lead minor wave on Wed/Thur will be fully sampled for this evenings runs. The south and northern wave will be well sampled by Thur evenings runs, and even more so after.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I would put this energy vortex right up against Super Bowl, GHD and the 1999 storms in terms of Great Lakes snowfall/wind  potential. You just look at that vortex off the pacific your like wow!!!! What a high priced texas hooker.

your never positive. Game Ovah!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana AFD this afternoon...

Warm advection/fgen induced snow
should overspread the area late Friday night into Saturday 
morning, with forcing gradually transitioning to deformation in 
nature by late Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening. Details in
exact snow amounts will need to be resolved over next several 
forecasts but some areas could see over 10 inches of snow with 
this system if expected track verifies. Still a bit too early for 
headlines regarding this system, but if above trends continue, 
headlines will likely be needed in the next 24 to 36 hours for the
weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For those on the north end of the storm looking for a bump north, those looking for a cutter, or the historic-like 0z ECMWF run to occur...

The one big negative I see that I didn't see before is that the main PV over the Hudson actually gets dragged east by a big storm around Greenland...just as the northern stream wave is diving south around the PV...which pulls the wave more the the east as well. One of the big reasons I believe the 0z ECMWF was a huge run is that the northern wave was faster and the PV was centered further west early on. This combination allowed the northern wave to dig more before sliding more easterly, allowing for some phasing earlier.

Placement of the southern wave is key as well. There is good agreement on it coming onshore in N. CA and diving SE, with the base of the trough down into El Paso eventually. After that what is needed is key timing, as well as the wave closing off further north. The 0z ECMWF also had this occur and what was aforementioned with the northern wave, which helped lead to the big run.

The lead minor wave on Wed/Thur will be fully sampled for this evenings runs. The south and northern wave will be well sampled by Thur evenings runs, and even more so after.

Good points. 

I wonder if a decent # of the 12z Euro ensemble members had positive developments in this regard, given that the ensemble mean was a bit NW of the op. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...