mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Watch the Euro come in as a MSN special :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On my loose counts, only about 3 of the 20 members shifted south with a majority ticking just north or holding serve. Mean is basically unchanged if not a slight tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: Watch the Euro come in as a MSN special :p Sorry, what's MSN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Way too early to freak out for sure. i can only see it thru 96, but the 12z FV3 certainly doesn’t look south as alluded to earlier. But maybe it goes to crap after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yep, a pleasant surprise. Good sign considering that known tendency with the OP model. Despite what I posted earlier about the GEFS in particular, this is a good reason to lean more heavily toward the ensembles at this range. The op models are not useless, they shouldn't be taken verbatim but they can be instructive on the positives and negatives with a particular setup. I’m not at all worried that the GFS ticked south and progressive because it’s a well known tendency with that particular model. It’s almost always too fast with strong/amped systems at this range and usually ends up correcting towards the slower consensus. What concerned me is that the rest of the 12z suite(so far) followed suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: Sorry, what's MSN? Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yep, a pleasant surprise. An encouraging sign considering that known tendency with ensembles vs. the OP model. Despite what I posted earlier about the GEFS in particular, this is a good reason to lean more heavily toward the ensembles at this range. The op models are not useless, they shouldn't be taken verbatim but they can be instructive on the positives and negatives with a particular setup. Is an op run any better than its ensembles? Or is it the lucky one that gets the spot light? In other words...could any one of the 51 euro emsembles be considered the same as the op? Or any of the 20 gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FVS-GFS dry for N IL..screw hole WWA goes north..other precip later south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: FVS-GFS dry for N IL..screw hole WWA goes north..other precip later south Yea that’s pretty awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: FVS-GFS dry for N IL..screw hole WWA goes north..other precip later south Yeah that was not a very good run for north IL. Hopefully the 00z guidance stops the bleeding lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Is an op run any better than its ensembles? Or is it the lucky one that gets the spot light? In other words...could any one of the 51 euro emsembles be considered the same as the op? Or any of the 20 gefs?The ensemble members have the same background model physics but are run at a lower resolution than the OP so the operational model is certainly better in that aspect. The big thing is that the small changes in initial conditions in the ensembles show you the range of possible outcomes and give you a sense of confidence or lack thereof in a certain solution (uncertainty interval). One of the members could certainly end up being close to what verifies, but if there's a ton of spread at a certain lead time that individual member is not really useful.The EPS itself is considered a very useful ensemble suite because it has 51 members and does a better job than the GEFS in showing that pdf (probability density function) of the projected future state of the atmosphere. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 lol, I guess I was wrong with FV3. Does some weird jumping around with the slp between 96 and 114 hours...almost looks like it jumps the slp with convection from 102-108...but still manages to drive a 999mb storm into SE Ohio. I'm punting that solution verbatim. End result would probably be more favorable for N IL, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 This subforum saying the gfs and fv3 went south our Ohio board saying it went nw. Lol. I think it ticked south with the low but its stronger allowing the warm air get further northwest to i70 in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 When should I post the JMA and NAVGEM? I should probably dig up my old links to the Brazilian and KMA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: When should I post the JMA and NAVGEM? I should probably dig up my old links to the Brazilian and KMA too. Fv3 did quite well with the previous system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: FVS-GFS dry for N IL..screw hole WWA goes north..other precip later south Not worth worrying about yet but it is definitely one of the "what can go wrong" things about the setup... for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: When should I post the JMA and NAVGEM? I should probably dig up my old links to the Brazilian and KMA too. Checking my weenie model folder...and the FIM is not running due to the shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: When should I post the JMA and NAVGEM? I should probably dig up my old links to the Brazilian and KMA too. I miss the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not worth worrying about yet but it is definitely one of the "what can go wrong" things about the setup... for somebody. It's a bigger risk farther west I feel. The further east you are, the less the risk of that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GEFS individual member total snowfall thru 0z Monday (10:1 ratio). Purple shading starts the 6" and up totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, mimillman said: Watch the Euro come in as a MSN special :p That would be hilarious given how much MKX and our local mets (including the chief met at my employer) have been downplaying this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: the small changes in initial conditions in the ensembles show you the range of possible outcomes and give you a sense of confidence In other words, it quantifies the magnitude of uncertainty for small differences of initial conditions/assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Fwiw, the 2015 GHD storm joined the CIPS list (along with GHD 1 still there) on last night's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: That would be hilarious given how much MKX and our local mets (including the chief met at my employer) have been downplaying this system. I think we'll be hard pressed to see radical north shifts, especially that far west. Madison could get a good snow though especially with that initial band streaking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 One thing I’ve noticed is that the trend today has been to bring the leading wave further south, which may be the issue here. Euro showing the same signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Also that vorticity in the Gulf of Alaska is shunting the upper level ridge on the west coast. Grrrr A number of issues on this run I think will cause the SLP to be southeast of the 00z. Maybe models ingested some new info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I was expecting a north trend. Def shocked by this. Hopefully it will correct itself in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z Euro showing big snows still for NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 lol at expecting a north trend. That hasn't happened since Mt Geos moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Still a very solid hit for most of the sub forum, especially eastern areas. Just not as widespread as 00z. Would take and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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