Chambana Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Cyclone. If this pans out. I’ll confess my love for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: 06z GFS not missing a beat. This is along with 20-30 MPH sustained winds too. Anyone noticing the axis of snowfall tilting more and more SW to NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’m actually shocked the local news showed model outputs here in Toledo. With that being said if we do get 10-15” with winds it’ll shut this area down for days, especially considering how flat and open NW Ohio is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro has had overall good consistency run to run. Gfs has been shifting so much. Definitely relying more on euro at this point. Last time the bullseye was between I70 and I72. Feel like this time it will be further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lots of fun cherry picking individual EPS runs. I'm partial to #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Those maps are rather meaningless without legends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 End of NAM caveats apply but nice look at h5 at 84 hours and surface low a good deal farther west compared to GFS and FV3 at that time. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty interesting differences at H5 on the 12z GFS. Higher heights out ahead but low is further south at 500, causing the surface low pressure to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty interesting differences at H5 on the 12z GFS. Higher heights out ahead but low is further south at 500, causing the surface low pressure to be further south.Not a good run vs very encouraging 00z last night. Good thing there's plenty of time to get the changes we need. GFS did a horrible job handling the h5 wave at closer leads with this past weekend's event, so there's that. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is a tick south but the highest snow is a tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Still a good hit. Run after run paints a bullseye into eastern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 is definitely south. 12z GEM looks like a really nice storm for Buckeyeland but I don't have the zoomed in charts just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good news is its only minor bumps south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Those maps are rather meaningless without legends... If it's any consolation a legend posted it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I have little confidence in GFS. It did god awful with the last storm and it has been all over the place with this storm. Last night it buried a wide swath between I72 and I80 and now it has a narrow swath south of where it was last night. No consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Round 3 early next week on the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I have little confidence in GFS. It did god awful with the last storm and it has been all over the place with this storm. Last night it buried a wide swath between I72 and I80 and now it has a narrow swath south of where it was last night. No consistency Yeah I'm hoping the GFS is just GFS-ing and is wrong about that mini-screw zone over much of the DVN cwa lol. Although the new GEM shows that too. Still a long ways to go so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I like to think of operational model solutions at this lead time as being like individual ensemble members. They fall into the range of possible outcomes like the ensembles themselves. It's a good way to assess what you need to see happen to get the event you want or what could go wrong. We're still at a point where the shifts you see in the model suites may or may not be meaningful to the eventual outcome. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 In other news, the UKMET tracks from SW AR to N GA to off the coast. Don't have the precip maps but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Noting the Trend .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The 12z suite sucks across the board. Hopefully the Euro holds serve as every other model moved south and more progressive with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I like to think of operational model solutions at this lead time as being like individual ensemble members. They fall into the range of possible outcomes like the ensembles themselves. It's a good way to assess what you need to see happen to get the event you want or what could go wrong. We're still at a point where the shifts you see in the model suites may or may not be meaningful to the eventual outcome. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk If the ensembles shift south, I think we can safely say the trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I like to think of operational model solutions at this lead time as being like individual ensemble members. They fall into the range of possible outcomes like the ensembles themselves. It's a good way to assess what you need to see happen to get the event you want or what could go wrong. We're still at a point where the shifts you see in the model suites may or may not be meaningful to the eventual outcome. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Agreed, everyone needs to calm down over the little shifts one way or the other this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 If the ensembles shift south, I think we can safely say the trend is not our friend.I fully expect the GEFS to shift south because it's well known as being too non-dispersive with the operational GFS. Edit: Obviously if the negative trends on 12z runs thus far continue as we get closer, then we get concerned. Just for point of comparison, both GHD events had a few model cycles that drifted south until correcting way north. The synoptic setup has too much potential to give up on it yet. Edit 2: Never mind on the GEFS Good sign there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Also a good thing to note, the snow area on this storm is massive on all the models so we do have some wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I fully expect the GEFS to shift south because it's well known as being too non-dispersive with the operational GFS. Edit: Obviously if the negative trends on 12z runs thus far continue as we get closer, then we get concerned. Just for point of comparison, both GHD events had a few model cycles that drifted south until correcting way north. The synoptic setup has too much potential to give up on it yet. Glancing at gefs looks like if anything it ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Glancing at gefs looks like if anything it ticked north.Yep, a pleasant surprise. An encouraging sign considering that known tendency with ensembles vs. the OP model. Despite what I posted earlier about the GEFS in particular, this is a good reason to lean more heavily toward the ensembles at this range. The op models are not useless, they shouldn't be taken verbatim but they can be instructive on the positives and negatives with a particular setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Glancing at gefs looks like if anything it ticked north. Agreed. If anything I think we can agree to not freak out over the op GFS at this range, especially considering how poorly it did last weekend. Had literally 1” at PNT when they ended up getting 9” less than 48 hours from the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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