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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

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Yes, this is actually epitomizing my thought from the other day, the northern stream has sped up such that now another piece of energy is coming down at the right time not to mention the Thursday thing is weaker/quicker allowing for ridging and the southern stream to go more neutrally tilted in the plains.
Yep, really not far at all from the extreme totals being pulled farther north. Southern wave was much improved until final approach toward northern piece, going neutral tilt and closing off at h5 over the Plains. If we can keep that southern wave stronger for longer, it would argue for gaining more latitude before phase. Great trends overall on that run. I expect to see some explosive solutions on the EPS members.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Yep, really not far at all from the extreme totals being pulled farther north. Southern wave was much improved until final approach toward northern piece, going neutral tilt and closing off at h5 over the Plains. If we can keep that southern wave stronger for longer, it would argue for gaining more latitude before phase. Great trends overall on that run. I expect to see some explosive solutions on the EPS members.

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All I want is if it phases, no rain here.

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All I want is if it phases, no rain here.
I think our latitudes are in good shape, still would be enough confluence from PV to your north to act as a pseudo block from enabling a hard cut. We just want the more SW to NE trajectory you mentioned earlier. This run was a step toward getting that if we can get the further needed improvements.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

I think our latitudes are in good shape, still would be enough confluence from PV to your north to act as a pseudo block from enabling a hard cut. We just want the more SW to NE trajectory you mentioned earlier. This run was a step toward getting that if we can get the further needed improvements.

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Yeah I agree. kind of one of those deals where the system moves NE a bit and then slides eastward. Almost like the Super Tuesday storm of 08 only displaced more south.

 

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

5-6" of fresh powder for this area on the new Euro.  Not nearly as exciting as areas south and east but I'd definitely take it.  

After the last 4 or 5 winters if this pans out its hitting the lottery.  I'm changing my name and hiding from the relatives lol :weenie:

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The mean at day 5.5 is at least 10" at 10:1 on a line starting from Peoria to Buffalo, starting at 50 miles wide and growing to about 150 miles wide. Once you get to Ohio the mean is closer to 15". Downright stupid consensus at this point, I mean this is the mean and at 10:1 ratios.

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00z Euro Ens. Mean in close agreement with the Control run, if not ever so slightly further NW...

Heaviest axis of snow from IA/IL/MO tri-state, to FWA, to Toldeo/Sandusky. Bulk of low tracks along OH river, with a few more NWerly outliers than SEerly. 

LA based, but will be riding this one out in Columbus/Marysville, OH...

 

edit: Also woke up on GHD in Columbus to FZRA, made it back to Chicago just as snow began, so...serendipity?

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