Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie is about as trustworthy as our current political climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if someone in this sub gets a Blizzard Warning out of this. Winds and what will be heavy rates, especially with lake enhancement in LOT will make them prime candidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if someone in this sub gets a Blizzard Warning out of this. Winds and what will be heavy rates, especially with lake enhancement in LOT will make them prime candidates. The B word was already mentioned earlier by Stebo. Maybe he will be the good luck charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Indystorm said: The B word was already mentioned earlier by Stebo. Maybe he will be the good luck charm. Haha dammit now it's on me. But seriously the pressure gradient is stout with this, I would expect a good deal of wind and it dont take much to get blizzard conditions once you get out to the plains with how flat things are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z GFS ensembles more amped again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 good look as well. Can't wait to see euro in the morning. Here in Indy I'm wondering if we have an ice storm threat here as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 looks even more amped then the operational, widespread over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=asnow fv3 looks good for most of us. But how has it been faring lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: FV3 looks even more amped then the operational, widespread over a foot Yea pretty big run of the FV3. Gotta wait for the Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Haha dammit now it's on me. But seriously the pressure gradient is stout with this, I would expect a good deal of wind and it dont take much to get blizzard conditions once you get out to the plains with how flat things are. I was the first one to mention it in the med/long range thread, so any credit or blame goes to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I was the first one to mention it in the med/long range thread, so any credit or blame goes to me. Thanks for taking the bullets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Would the current snow pack have any effect on the track of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: LES setup will certainly feature extreme lake induced instability with 850s plunging to -20C or colder over the lake by early Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb lifting to closer to 700 mb during Sunday as cold air mass deepens. The inversion height is probably on the low side but when you consider that the DGZ is so low in such a cold air mass, it may be less of an issue than you'd otherwise think. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I’ve always wanted to go lake-effect snow chasing. This might be the opportunity to do it. Getting back though may take more than a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yea pretty big run of the FV3. Gotta wait for the Kuchera. Looks particularly good for west side of the lake LE/LES. And a huge run for northern IN-OH, solid for southern lower MI.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Looks particularly good for west side of the lake LE/LES. And a huge run for northern IN-OH, solid for southern lower MI. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Nice. Really can't get too much more spread the wealth than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nice weenie band and a FU slot. Even looks good for Toronto but I need readers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It would seem we are playing the bounce game on the Euro, because this run sure appears like it's coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Looks particularly good for west side of the lake LE/LES. And a huge run for northern IN-OH, solid for southern lower MI. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro looking pretty amped. That pressure gradient. Just wow. Heavy snow axis seems to be relatively similar to previous run. Maybe a tad south? Hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Like normal, this isn't my map. So no, I cant give you the amounts farther east :(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The Kuchera maps are insane, most of northern OH gets over 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 ECMWF could realistically still get better. It had absolute perfect timing of the northern and southern stream. The only issue is the southern stream gets strung out, which prevents deepening, a cut NE, and likely an even greater solution. Even without that, that was a big run for a big portion of the sub-forum. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Beat me to it. Crazy run, would seriously consider road tripping to LAF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 qpf outputs across the board with consensus on these models is kinda scary this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Euro looking pretty amped. That pressure gradient. Just wow. Heavy snow axis seems to be relatively similar to previous run. Maybe a tad south? Hard to tell 12z had somewhat less on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Glad I have a contractor to do my driveway if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 If we get a slightly better phase on that we could be talking more widespread 2’ totals further NW. Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: ECMWF could realistically still get better. It had absolute perfect timing of the northern and southern stream. The only issue is the southern stream gets strung out, which prevents deepening, a cut NE, and likely and even greater solution. Even without that, that was a big run for a big portion of the sub-forum. . Yes, this is actually epitomizing my thought from the other day, the northern stream has sped up such that now another piece of energy is coming down at the right time not to mention the Thursday thing is weaker/quicker allowing for ridging and the southern stream to go more neutrally tilted in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty wide swath of 1.50-2.25" QPF across E IL/IN/OH. Hell even up here it spits out around .7-.9 liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: 12z had somewhat less on the northern end. Yea I noticed that. Beefed up totals on the edge. Very nice run. Like Chicago Storm said, the more strung out southern vort prevented an even more extreme solution but this is still crazy. A large area of extreme snow amounts. Likely would see some pretty robust winds to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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